can't remember precisely what my homework was, but my last session was on playing in/vs the blinds. basically looking to decrease the amount my opponents are able to exploit me, while looking for spots to continue exploiting them. so today i decided to form a range for myself in the BB facing a BU steal from a typical 25nl TAG reg i made up in my head and typed some shit about my thought process in forming that range. i also highlighted what i think are the major steps in the thought process of forming ranges in these spots:
hypothetical villain
15/12/3.0 (3b) taggy, positionally aware 25nl reg on stars.
34% ATS in CO
45% ATS in BU
55% ATS in SB
opens 3x on the BU
what's his range? something like (~45%):
44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q6s+,J6s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,76s,A2o+,K6 o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o,87o,76o,65o
he opens 3x in order to win 1.5, so his break-even fold frequency in a vacuum is 3/4.5=66%.
meaning to be unexploitable, i need to play 34% of hands.
assuming i have a clean(ish) image, he probably continues to a 3bet with ~10% or less:
22-QQ,AJs+,AQo+,KJs+,KQo,QTs+,JTs,T9s,76s
so he's folding 75-80% of that range to a 3bet.
and probably 4betting something like KK+ exclusively for the time being (because of our clean image)
when i 3bet, i'll be risking 11 in order to win 4.5, thus my BE fold frequency on the 3bet is ~71%
what hands can we profitably continue with vs the first range?
77+,A8s+,KTs+,ATo+,KQo (11% of hands)
what hands out of this range are strong enough to 3b for value?
AQs+,AK,QQ+
which is 36 combinations.
what % of our 3bet range do we want to be bluffs?
because our opponent is folding such an exploitably high amount, we can probably get away with 70-75% of our 3b range being bluffs, however because i'm a nit, and i'm new to thus, and i am possibly prone to spewing OOP in 3bet pots with too weak a range, i'm going to make ~66% of my range 3b bluffs.
so we're looking to have roughly 2*36 combos as bluffs.
what hands are best to include in 3bet bluff range?
i think there are three criteria here:
- fold equity (blockers to villain's continuing range)
- pot equity (ie A2s is better to include than A2o, because it flops better vs villain's continuing range)
- hands which are too weak to call profitably
i decided on:
66-22,A7s-A2s,KTs-K7s,QTs+ (78 combinations)
so our 3bet range breaks down as follows (~8% of hands):
QQ+,AQs+,AKo (38 combinations)
66-22,A7s-A2s,KTs-K7s,QTs+ (78 combinations)
so 78 / (78+38) = 0.67 * 100 = 67.2% of our 3b range is "bluffing" and 100-67.2 = 32.8% is probably stacking off
{22+,A2s+,K7s+,QTs+,ATo+} = ~15% of hands.
and our fold BB to steal is now 100%-15% = 85%
this means i'm 3betting nearly half of the time i'm continuing, which seems a lot, but i think 3betting is a pretty important part of the right strategy here because our opponent, assuming he hasn't yet adjusted, is highly susceptible to 3bets, and playing pots postflop isn't particularly enticing because we are always surrendering the positional advantage.
so i'm still being exploited like hell, but i'm being exploited less than i was when my fold BB to steal was ~10%. and once i get comfortable opening up to this degree, and probably gather some postflop reads in the process (ie cbet frequency/range, reaction to donk leads etc), if i don't think he's adjusting much/at all, i can open up even further doing things like
-adding more 3b bluffs if he's folding to resteal alot.
-adding perhaps JJ and AQo to my 3b range if he's adjusting by flatting my 3bets more
- removing some bluff combos from my 3bet range if i think he's adjusting by 4betting me more (i'd be inclined to start 4bet bluffing if i found a reg 3betting 8% from the BB. just to make him have to readjust. or just get back in his box and stop restealing)
etc etc. tbh i'd prefer to keep it at a level where he isn't forced to adjust a lot because i'm the kind of retard who always over-adjusts to people's perceived adjustments and levels the shit out of himself in the process.
anyhow, please feel free to pick apart the thought process/range size/choice of hands. might post it in the BC for higher response rate.
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