operation: same as everyone else

i also have outs, backdoor outs, and some good barreling cards against some of that range as well so i don't strictly need the donk to be +EV as a bluff in a vacuum. now i think about it i forgot to include the pocket pair combos in the postflop analysis. gotta jump in a car and drive for 3 hours now. will edit later.

Double Barrel Spot #1

villain is 16/10 over about 100 and has folded to 2/3 cbets over this sample.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (MP3) ($10)
CO ($14.01)
Button ($9.52)
SB ($13.18)
BB ($10.15)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($6.99)
MP1 ($22.32)
MP2 ($7.32)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, 7
4 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button calls $0.30, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.75) 3, 10, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, Button calls $0.50
Turn: ($1.75) K (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, 1 fold
Total pot: $1.75 | Rake: $0.08

Preflop Range
22-QQ (63), A8s+ (27), ATo+ (48), KTs+ (8), KQ (16), QTs+ (8), QJo (12), JTs-43s (32)

total of 224

Flop Range
55-99 (30), TT (1), JJ (6), QQ (6), AT (6), KT (8), QTs (2), KTs (2), JTs (2), T9s (2)

65 combos, so he was calling 63/224 = 29% and therefolding folding 71%, making my cbet fine in a vacuum. so he called, and i decided that he had many combinations of middle pairs in his continuing range on the flop. even though i had very little equity when called on the turn, i felt this card sucked for enough of his range for double barreling to be +EV. i'm not so sure about that now.

Turn
TT (1), AT (6), KT (6), QTs (2), JTs (2), T9s (2), QQ (6)

total of 25 combos, which is 25/65=38% of his flop continuing range that he calls a turn bet with (folding 62%)

i bet 1.2 to win 1.7, meaning i needed him to fold 1.2/(1.2+1.7) = 42% of the time, which he wasn't. so it wasn't +EV in a vacuum.

however if he peels the flop with all pairs 22-QQ, or if i had AJ, AQ or any two spades, this would mean i have more fold equity/pot equity, respectively, on the turn card, and could possibly make up the EV needed to make barreling +EV.

Double Barrel Spot #2

i don't even remember playing this one because i haven't been playing for a while, but villain is 65/8 over a very small sample and after this hand i had a note on him reading something to the effect of "check/minraise top,middle pair on turn". no other relevant stats or reads. i'm thinking in hindsight that versus a fish there are almost no good 2-barrel bluff cards here for a few reasons:
-flop equity is great but chops in half on every non-straight/BD flush draw completing turn card
-villain is quite possibly a station and the board is wet so FE is likely very low. though i beat all naked draws, he can easily have pair/gutter hands or two pairs.
-i have 8 outs to the what i'm happy to consider as the nuts against a fish so i usually want to get there cheap and then value-town when i hit with the draws in my range.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($25.45)
Hero (Button) ($25.15)
SB ($28.60)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, K
Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.75) 7, 9, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25
Turn: ($4.25) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.75, BB raises to $5.50, Hero calls $2.75
River: ($15.25) Q (2 players)
BB bets $6.25, Hero raises to $17.60 (All-In), BB calls $11.35
Total pot: $50.45 | Rake: $1

Preflop
22-QQ, A2s+, A7o+, K6s+, K8o+, Q7s+, Q9o+, J8s+, J8o+, T9s-43s, 86s- T8s

22-QQ (63), A2s-A6s (20), A7+ (94), K6s-K7s (6), K8+ (54), Q7s-Q8s (8), Q9+ (44), J8+ (44), 43s-98s (24), T9s (3), T8s (3), 97s-86s (8)

i calculated those combos differently than i'm used to. seems like a more efficient means of doing it after some practice but they may be out at the moment.

Flop
77-QQ (27), A7 (12), A9 (12), AJ (12), K7s (3), K9 (9), KJ (9), Q7s (3), Q9 (12), QJ (12), J8 (12), J9 (9), JT (9), T9s (2), 98s (3), 78s (3), 76s (3), A8 (16), AT (12), K8 (12), KT (9), Q8s (4), QT (12), 65s (4), T8s (3), 86s (4)

this comes to 236 combos if i counted correctly. while most of them have me "beat" (if the flop were the showdown), i have 8 nuts outs, which gives me roughly 30% equity, plus my pair outs are clean versus some of his range so cbetting is fine by me.

Turn
i'll ignore the fact that he check/minraised me, and analyse the merit of barreling what is essentially king high versus his continuing range.

of that flop range i imagine he ditches all draws with four outs or less (all of which i beat anyway, fwiw) and any one pair hand weaker than jacks UNLESS he has a draw with them.


77 (3), 88 (6), 99 (3), TT (3), JJ (3), QQ (6), A7 (9), A9 (9), AJ (9), KJ (9), QJ (12), J8 (12), J9 (9), JT (9), 78s (3), A8 (12), AT (9), KT (9), QT (12), T8s (3), 86s (4)

this is 154 combinations, so it's 154/236 = 65% of his flop range continues on the turn, and 100-65=35% folds. i'm guessing my betsize was slightly smaller than standard because i was aiming to fold out the one pair hands i cut out of his flop range, because they are correct in calling. i'm risking 2.75 to win 4.25, so i need 2.75/(4.25 + 2.75) = 39% folds. just short of what i needed for the bet to be +EV in a vacuum. however once again i have some equity (as a guess, 20-25%) against his continuing range, so the double barrel isn't as bad as the in-a-vacuum EV calculation seems to indicate. though probably not optimal for the reasons i outlined at the beginning of this post.

Double Barrel Spot #3

Villain is 12/12 over 17
100% ATS, 100% FSBTS and FBBTS, and 100% Cbet
tiny sample i'm aware but there are still inferences which can be made

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($60.55)
UTG+1 ($29.80)
MP1 ($93.13)
MP2 ($23.65)
MP3 ($42.96)
CO ($78.37)
Button ($32.63)
SB ($52.84)
Hero (BB) ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 9
7 folds, SB bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.95) Q, 6, 8 (2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero raises to $3.25, SB calls $2.25
Turn: ($8.45) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.50, 1 fold
Total pot: $8.45 | Rake: $0.41

Preflop
little info as usual, but the guy seems to be a taggy, solid kind of a player, and i feel that he is probably capable of opening at least 25% of hands here, probably more. Range:

22+, A2s+, A6o+, K8s+, KTo+, Q8s+, QTo+, J8s+, JTo+

22-88 (42), 99,TT (6), JJ+ (24), A2s-A8s (28), A9s-ATs (6), AJs+ (12), A6o-A8o (36), A9o-ATo (18), AJo+ (36), K8s (4), K9s-KTs (6), KJs+ (8), KTo (9), KJo+ (24), Q8s (4), Q9s-QTs (6), QJs (4), QTo (9), QJo (12), J8s (4), J9s-JTs (6), JTo (9)

this comes to a total of 318 combos if i counted them and punched them into my calculator correctly.

flatting may be marginal, but i have position, and i feel i can outplay him postflop some of the time because he doesn't know much about me (+playing OOP is likely to make him play relatively straightforward)

Flop cbet range
he cbets 1/2 pot on a dry-ish board, i imagine a TAG is doing this with a decent chunk of the preflop range. i'll say he bets all air, all pocket pairs except 77, 99 and TT (SD value), and all hands top pair or stronger

22+, A2s-A5s, A7s, A9s+, A7o, A9o, ATo+, K9s+, KTo+, Q8s+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo

22-55 (24), 66 (3), 88 (3), JJ (6), QQ (3), KK+ (12), A2s-A5s (16), A7s (4), A9s (3), ATs (3), AJs (4), AQs (3), AKs (4), A7o (12), A9o (9), A9o-ATo (18), AJo (12), AQo (9), AKo (12), K9s-KTs (6), KJs (4), KQs (3), KTo (9), KJo (12), KQo (9), Q8s (2), Q9s (2), QTs (3), QJs (3), QTo (9), QJo (9), J9s+ (6), JTo (9)

this comes to 240 combos, so roughly 75-80% (~4/5ths) of his preflop range. with a well-disguised double gutter, i felt it would be a good spot to semi-bluff raise because it appeared that both my fold equity and my pot equity were high. my implied odds were likely great due to the hidden-ness of my hand (added to by my choice to use it as a semi-bluff), and i felt i could profitably barrel some painty cards that could fall. so i chose to semi-bluff raise. i think he flats my raise with all top pair hands/overpairs, sets, and TT-JJ. while i'm not going to factor it in here, i think his flatting range is actually considerably weaker than this, because he is likely to 3bet sets and overpairs some of the time. range:

Q8s+, QTo+, 66, 88, TT, JJ, QQ+

AQs (3), AQo (9), KQs (3), KQo (9), Q8s (2), Q9s (2), QTs (3), QJs (3), QTo (9), QJo (12), 66 (3), 88 (3), TT (6), JJ (6), QQ (3), KK+ (12)

this is 88 combos.

as we can see, there are very few "nut" hands in here, and much of it is made up of top pair hands which are vulnerable to further aggression.

Turn
i think my flop raise gets him to check a lot of his range, either for pot control (weak one pair hands), or because he expects me to bet here a LOT so he can check/jam his nut hands. also lead/call flop, donk turn is super strong here and most people don't seem to do it in my experience. so i'll say he checks 100%. how much of it continues to a bet though? i'm going to say:

AQ (12), KQ (9), 66 (3), 88 (3), QQ (3), KK (3), AA (6), Q8s (2)

this is 41 combos. so 41/88= 46% of his flop range continues on this turn. 54% folds. i bet ~2/3 of pot, so i required ~40% FE in vacuum on this street for my play to be +EV. i also had 8 well disguised outs when he called. had any card 2-9 (except a 7) fell on the turn i would probably (ideally) have checked behind and taken my free card to 8 outs, but i felt the king increased my fold equity significantly.

in other news i've been running a little bad, and playing bad in spots, plus playing/studying poker far less than i'm used to due to uni commitments, so i'm going to drop back down to 10nl until i have more time i'm able to allocate to poker. i also wish to apologise to spoon for being the slackest student since 'nam.

Originally Posted by rpm

Turn
TT (1), AT (6), KT (6), QTs (2), JTs (2), T9s (2), QQ (6)

total of 25 combos, which is 25/65=38% of his flop continuing range that he calls a turn bet with (folding 62%)

i bet 1.2 to win 1.7, meaning i needed him to fold 1.2/(1.2+1.7) = 42% of the time, which he wasn't. so it wasn't +EV in a vacuum.

however if he peels the flop with all pairs 22-QQ, or if i had AJ, AQ or any two spades, this would mean i have more fold equity/pot equity, respectively, on the turn card, and could possibly make up the EV needed to make barreling +EV.

this is double barrell spot # 1 btw...

first id include JJ in his range on the turn for calling a bet, so if you include that you have 31 hands out of 65 that he is calling, so he is folding 53% of the time...so it is ev+ as is....and in your example you say "i need him to fold 42% of the time" right after you say he is folding 62%...so NH SIR good 2 barrell

Originally Posted by rpm

Turn
i'll ignore the fact that he check/minraised me, and analyse the merit of barreling what is essentially king high versus his continuing range.

of that flop range i imagine he ditches all draws with four outs or less (all of which i beat anyway, fwiw) and any one pair hand weaker than jacks UNLESS he has a draw with them.


77 (3), 88 (6), 99 (3), TT (3), JJ (3), QQ (6), A7 (9), A9 (9), AJ (9), KJ (9), QJ (12), J8 (12), J9 (9), JT (9), 78s (3), A8 (12), AT (9), KT (9), QT (12), T8s (3), 86s (4)

this is 154 combinations, so it's 154/236 = 65% of his flop range continues on the turn, and 100-65=35% folds. i'm guessing my betsize was slightly smaller than standard because i was aiming to fold out the one pair hands i cut out of his flop range, because they are correct in calling. i'm risking 2.75 to win 4.25, so i need 2.75/(4.25 + 2.75) = 39% folds. just short of what i needed for the bet to be +EV in a vacuum. however once again i have some equity (as a guess, 20-25%) against his continuing range, so the double barrel isn't as bad as the in-a-vacuum EV calculation seems to indicate. though probably not optimal for the reasons i outlined at the beginning of this post.

this is double barrell 2 i think

i think hes going to still be calling a lot of his any pair hands like K7, q7s, k9 and shit that you had in his flop continuing range. Also he will still call a bunch of gutshots cause hes a huge station, not a great spot to double barrell imo, great person to value town with almost any decent hand.

obviously on turn you are getting lol odds and with any sort of implied odds you are going to be money on your double belly buster ...i just feel like this is a spot where your going against what we want to do against a player like this and thats value town the shit out of him, not try and make some play. sorry if i am coming off like a dick

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

this is double barrell spot # 1 btw...

first id include JJ in his range on the turn for calling a bet, so if you include that you have 31 hands out of 65 that he is calling, so he is folding 53% of the time...so it is ev+ as is....and in your example you say "i need him to fold 42% of the time" right after you say he is folding 62%...so NH SIR good 2 barrell

thanks for that. i was comparing my 42% required folds to his 38% CALLS, instead of his 62% folds. rushed work/scattered logic itt

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

this is double barrell 2 i think

i think hes going to still be calling a lot of his any pair hands like K7, q7s, k9 and shit that you had in his flop continuing range. Also he will still call a bunch of gutshots cause hes a huge station, not a great spot to double barrell imo, great person to value town with almost any decent hand.

obviously on turn you are getting lol odds and with any sort of implied odds you are going to be money on your double belly buster ...i just feel like this is a spot where your going against what we want to do against a player like this and thats value town the shit out of him, not try and make some play. sorry if i am coming off like a dick

i agree here philly, value bet more and bluff/semi-buff less vs stations, value bet less and bluff/semi-bluff more vs nits. ez game. as for the last comment, you're not at all. and even if you were, at least i'd be learning about poker as a result. you should drop in here more often

just put in a 90 min session and played ~500 hands over 6 tables. didnt table select at all, just aimed to sit at 6 tables and adjust my play as i saw fit at each table. i think that's my best course of action for the near future, just playing short sessions with no more than 6 tables and really putting thought/effort into analysing opponents ranges and deciding how to play mine accordingly. i posted a couple of the trouble hands in drangers "wanna increase your win-rate a fuckton?" thread in the BC which i would like to hear some comments on, if anyone reads this thread. unfortunately i didn't come across any real potential double barrel bluff spots for analysis but that's ok. seeya.

DB Spot #4

villain is 25/15/0 over 21. 0% FTCB out of 2 opportunities

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($21.22)
MP2 ($11.83)
Hero (CO) ($12.36)
Button ($10.91)
SB ($12.34)
BB ($9.75)
UTG ($10.60)
UTG+1 ($5.15)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K, J
4 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.70) 3, 3, A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40
Turn: ($1.50) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1
River: ($3.50) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.80, SB calls $2.80
Total pot: $9.10 | Rake: $0.44

Preflop
22-QQ, A8s+, ATo+, KJs+, 43s-QJs
seems a pretty standard flatting range for 10nlers i've seen

Flop
doubt this bet will be profitable in the vacuum but i had two backdoor draws and a few good barreling cards (+equity against 44-QQ) so i cbet. calling range:
33-QQ, 43s, A8s-AQs, ATo-AQo, 54ss-QJss

33-QQ (57), A8s-A9s (6), AT-AQ (33), 43s (2), 54ss-QJss (8)

this = 106 combos

Turn
i think he folds all pairs 44-JJ, with the exception of the higher ones which contain a spade. i'll say

8s8+, QQ, 43s, 54ss-JQss, A8s-A9s, AT-AQ

88-JJ w/1 spade (12), QQ (3), 43s (2), 54ss-JTss (7), A8s-A9s (6), AT-AQ (30)

this = 60 combos. or 60/106 = 55% of the time he calls, 45% he folds. as i needed 40% FE to breakeven in a vacuum (i bet 2/3 pot), the bet is +EV disregarding my 20-24% equity against his calling range. i should note here that flushes and full houses are likely to check/raise this turn, and i don't know how to factor that in to the analyses, but i sense it would involve some EV equation business, determining what % of the continuing range he check raises, and how much equity i have against it, and how large he check/raises and how much i expect to win on x% of rivers etc etc etc.

Originally Posted by rpm

DB Spot #4

villain is 25/15/0 over 21. 0% FTCB out of 2 opportunities

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($21.22)
MP2 ($11.83)
Hero (CO) ($12.36)
Button ($10.91)
SB ($12.34)
BB ($9.75)
UTG ($10.60)
UTG+1 ($5.15)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K, J
4 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.70) 3, 3, A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40
Turn: ($1.50) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1
River: ($3.50) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.80, SB calls $2.80
Total pot: $9.10 | Rake: $0.44

analysis to come later

again generally a bad spot to 2 barrell cause fish love to call down with thier Ax hands and a 25/15 (i know lol sample size but even more lol sample size on his fold to cbet (only 2 times??)) is going to have a lot of that in his range ...obviously the Qs is the best card to possibly come out for you to barrel cause you just picked up NFD and a GSSD so you have tons of equity when you are called... but hes going to have some flushes, some 3's, mebe FHs , and a ton of Ax thats folding here like never, only thing hes really calling the flop here and folding to a turn bet is some PPs, his missed broadways picked up a lot of Q pairs .

Cliffs
i like the barrell cause the Qs and the nut potential of our hand picks up, but typically with a hand like a 8s8 or a KJ with no spade, i likely shut down and check behind hopefully get to check behind on the river too


kinda rambled there for a minute sorry...

thanks for the comments. i'm unsure about my feelings here as i havent done the in-depth range analysis. however i think labelling a 25/15 over 21 hands as a station isn't really accurate. he's shown that he is raising a decent amount of hands he is vpip'ing (at least compared to the 40/6 stationy types). it's a tiny sample so he could obviously go either way, but it's all i have to go on and any "read" is better than none. as for the cbet sample, yeah i didn't give much weight to that. i think you're right in saying he has Ax in his range here, and it's not folding. but i'm interested in how much of that range is Ax or 3x hands, and how much is middle pairs which can't stand the heat.

i imagine he's calling the flop with all of 44-QQ (51 combos by my quick mental calculation, possibly wrong). i need him to fold 40% of the time for my turn bet to be breakeven in a vacuum. assuming he folds all of 44-JJ (48 combos) on the turn, he needs to have roughly 70 or more combos of Ax in his range for it to be -EV in a vacuum. factoring in blockers, in terms of Ax hands, thats something like A9+ (Ak,AJ,AQ have 12 each, coming to 36, AT and A9 have 16 each, coming to 68 total), however i imagine he 3bets AK pre, so perhaps as low as A8+. i'm guessing that A8 is close to the bottom of his Ax range that he calls with pre. plus i have something like 12 outs to a straight/flush so, based on this shorthand analysis, i don't mind firing that turn barrel at all.

btw, i have

Board: 3d 3s As Qs
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.003% 24.00% 00.00% 602 0.00 { KsJh }
Hand 1: 75.997% 76.00% 00.00% 1906 0.00 { QQ, JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, 9c9s, 9d9s, 9h9s, 33, AQs-A8s, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, 43s, AQo-ATo }

24% when called, so i don't strictly need 40% folds, because the turn isn't being played in a vacuum. anyway, i'll do some more in depth analysis later, and then possibly agree with you that it sucked. btw, in this thread, you're encouraged to ramble as much as you want.

Originally Posted by rpm

i imagine he's calling the flop with all of 44-QQ (51 combos by my quick mental calculation, possibly wrong). i need him to fold 40% of the time for my turn bet to be breakeven in a vacuum. assuming he folds all of 44-JJ (48 combos) on the turn, he needs to have roughly 70 or more combos of Ax in his range for it to be -EV in a vacuum. factoring in blockers, in terms of Ax hands, thats something like A9+ (Ak,AJ,AQ have 12 each, coming to 36, AT and A9 have 16 each, coming to 68 total), however i imagine he 3bets AK pre, so perhaps as low as A8+. i'm guessing that A8 is close to the bottom of his Ax range that he calls with pre.
.

ignore this, his continuing range on the turn is never ONLY Ax hands so it's inaccurate. though i think it's good to calculate stuff like that to get a feel for how certain ranges are weighted.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

again generally a bad spot to 2 barrell cause fish love to call down with thier Ax hands and a 25/15 (i know lol sample size but even more lol sample size on his fold to cbet (only 2 times??)) is going to have a lot of that in his range ...obviously the Qs is the best card to possibly come out for you to barrel cause you just picked up NFD and a GSSD so you have tons of equity when you are called... but hes going to have some flushes, some 3's, mebe FHs , and a ton of Ax thats folding here like never, only thing hes really calling the flop here and folding to a turn bet is some PPs, his missed broadways picked up a lot of Q pairs .

Cliffs
i like the barrell cause the Qs and the nut potential of our hand picks up, but typically with a hand like a 8s8 or a KJ with no spade, i likely shut down and check behind hopefully get to check behind on the river too


kinda rambled there for a minute sorry...

some things that came to mind reading your post. no hate intended.

bold number 1 - you later said "i like the barrel"
bold number 2 - agreed
bold number 3 - very few, if any, imo
bold number 4 - i doubt he ever C/C's even KQ high here. if he is floating missed broadways OOP on an ace high board, i imagine it'd be very few
bold number 5 - i like your thinking, me too.

i sorted out the original HH with range analysis, let me know where you would include/exclude different holdings at different stages of the hand.

Originally Posted by rpm

some things that came to mind reading your post. no hate intended.

bold number 1 - you later said "i like the barrel"
bold number 2 - agreed
bold number 3 - very few, if any, imo
bold number 4 - i doubt he ever C/C's even KQ high here. if he is floating missed broadways OOP on an ace high board, i imagine it'd be very few
bold number 5 - i like your thinking, me too.

i sorted out the original HH with range analysis, let me know where you would include/exclude different holdings at different stages of the hand.

with your opening range id probably throw in more Ax cause fish really value Ax hands, even if that means dropping some SC's from his range.

bold no1 - lol i liked it cause the turn card that came but i just meant that generally an Ace high board vs a 25/15 is not a good spot to be barrelling (obv a great spot to be cbetting but once im called im probably shutting down as far as bluffing goes, if you want to try and get 2 streets from his flush draws and he shuts down on the river and doesnt bluff when he misses, so you can win with ur K-high then thats good too)

bold no 3-
I agree very few 3's, id probably limit it to A3 (although you dont have that in his range so i guess going by ur range only 43 (even less 3's obv))

bold no 4- yea i agree, i just figured that with a double barrell you wanted to illustrate him folding a lot of combos and i wanted to make the point that even if he was floating you with missed overs then this card likely wont deter him from calling again. (pretty pointless on my part sorry)

as for your statement about him raising or w/e...if we do this as a pure bluff (which you even said it is still EV+ disregarding our 24%equity), then it doesnt matter if he calls or raises because we are assuming we lose once he continues DUCY?

also if you throw in a lot more Ax hands into his range this quickly becomes a spot where you are very dependent on your fat chunk of equity.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

\
as for your statement about him raising or w/e...if we do this as a pure bluff (which you even said it is still EV+ disregarding our 24%equity), then it doesnt matter if he calls or raises because we are assuming we lose once he continues DUCY?
\.

yes, i do. but in the real-world i do have some equity against made flushes and 3x. however, assuming decent C/R sizing, i imagine it'd be a pretty trivial fold.

yea i know you has equity, but im saying that if oyu just dont think of your hand at all and are looking at it from a pure bluff perspective (if i bet x, he has to fold y amount for it to be ev+), then whether or not he raises or calls is irrelevant because we are assuming we lose when that happens, obviously when analysing a semi bluff you can take your equity into account to make up for FE that you need to make a play EV+ and factoring in raises becomes a lot more tricky.

nevermind lol im nit picking

DB Spot #5

villain unknown. (turned out to be a 45 VPIPish tard but wotev)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($49.70)
BB ($25.26)
UTG ($37.96)
UTG+1 ($31.43)
MP1 ($34.02)
Hero (MP2) ($26.95)
CO ($28.09)
Button ($51.46)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, J
3 folds, Hero bets $1, CO calls $1, 1 fold, SB calls $0.90, 1 fold
Flop: ($3.65) 3, 8, 7 (3 players)
SB bets $1, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, SB calls $3
Turn: ($11.65) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6

Preflop
22-QQ, A6s+, A9o+, K9s, KT+, Q9+, J8s+, J9+, 43-T9s

22-QQ (66), A6-A8s (12), A9+ (72), K9s (3), KT+ (33), Q9+ (48), J8s (3), J9+ (24) 43s-T9s (32)

293 combos

Flop
33-QQ, A7s, A8s, A6hh+, Q9hh+, J8s, J9, JThh, 54hh76hh, T9s

33-QQ (51), A7s (3), A8s (3), A6hh-A7hh (2), A9-AThh (2) AQhh (1), Q9hh-QThh (2), J8s (3), J9 (12), JThh (1), 54hh-76hh (3), 65s (3), 54s (3), T9s (3)

88 combos. 92/293 = 32% of his range calls the flop.

Turn
33, 77, 88-QQ, A7s, A8s, A6hh-A7hh, A9hh-AThh, AQhh, Q9hh-QThh, J8s, JhTh, 54hh-76hh, 65s, T9s

33 (3), 77 (3), 88 (3), 99-QQ (13), A7s (2), A8s (2), A6hh-A7hh (2), A9hh-AThh (2), AQhh (1), Q9hh-QThh (2), J8s (3), JhTh (1), 54hh-76hh (2), 65s (4), T9s (4)

47 combos. i'm guessing that's about 55% (calling) but i'll check it.
47/88 = 53. 47% folds. i bet about half pot (my reasoning was i wanted to give myself a chance to fold when he check/jams his nut range.not sure if i like that reasoning or not) so i needed about 33% folds in a vacuum.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

yea i know you has equity, but im saying that if oyu just dont think of your hand at all and are looking at it from a pure bluff perspective (if i bet x, he has to fold y amount for it to be ev+), then whether or not he raises or calls is irrelevant because we are assuming we lose when that happens, obviously when analysing a semi bluff you can take your equity into account to make up for FE that you need to make a play EV+ and factoring in raises becomes a lot more tricky.

nevermind lol im nit picking

i understand this. we are in agreement.

Originally Posted by rpm

i understand this. we are in agreement.

ok good

as for last DB

seems std, i maybe bet turn harder(like 8-8.5) cause i think theres an inflection point in there somewhere where if you bet small enough he will keep calling with more of the weak shit he flatted ur raise on the flop (ie 44 55 66 99 8x 7x) and u get more value from worse flush draws that an unknown will call down with. (although this may be spew on my part lol)

but yea donks like that on the flop of unders like that is air like 99% of the time and i just raise anything that i cant let him rope himself with and take note if they are actually doing this with a good hand

going to analyse a random hand in terms of combos etc just because it helps with understanding ranges and equity and the mechanics of this sick game.

Villain is 58/0 over small sample. one and only note reads "limp/call Q8o, C/C top and bottom pair on flop, check turn, under-sized value lead on river" (i think it was something like 1/6th pot)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($10)
BB ($23.58)
UTG ($7.18)
UTG+1 ($26.64)
MP1 ($10.17)
MP2 ($25.19)
Hero (MP3) ($26.11)
CO ($19.64)
Button ($26.55)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, 2
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.60, 4 folds, MP2 calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.53) 7, 10, 2 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($1.53) A (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $3, MP2 calls $2.50
River: ($7.53) 7 (2 players)
MP2 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Total pot: $10.53 | Rake: $0.50

Preflop
so yep he's a drooler and his range is wide. which means not much of it can withstand a cbet. also i am deep, in position against a calling station, with a hand with "nut potential". therefore i think the iso is pretty standard, assuming the BU and CO aren't droolers or 34/24 types who attempt to steal lots of pots postflop.

22-QQ, A2o-AQo, A2s-AQs, K6s+, K7o+, Q6s+, Q7o+, J7s+, J8o+, 32s-T9s, 42s-T8s, 85s-T7s

22 (3), 33-QQ (60), A2 (9), A3-AQ (12), K6s (4), K7+ (96), Q6s (4), Q7+ (80), J7s (4), J8+ (48), 32s (3), 43s-T9s (28), 42s (3), 53s-T8s (24), 85s-T7s (12)

total of 389 combos on a fast, first count.

Flop
so i check it back because i only have bottom pair (a little bit of value), and the only hand i technically get "value" from are flush draws, some of which almost have 40-50% equity. plus the only part of his range i gain EV's by getting to fold are A3, A4-A6, A8-A9, AJ,AQ. some of this is probably check calling anyway. i think my only option here is to check.

Turn
i imagine he leads here with all flushes and all hands top pair or stronger, he may sometimes have a naked picture spade, but i'm going to assume his preflop passivity carries over postflop and makes him less inclined to semi-bluffing. i'm also assuming he lead/calls 100% of that range, which is probably quite close to the truth.

22 (1), 77 (3), TT (3), A2(4), A3-A6 (32), A7 (6), A8-A9 (16), AT (6), AJ-AQ (16), T7s (3), K6ss (2), K8ss-K9ss (2), KJss-KQs (2), Q6ss (1), Q8-Q9ss (2), QJss (1), J8ss-J9ss (2), 32ss-65ss (4), 98ss (1), 42ss-64ss (3), 86ss (1), 58ss-96ss (2)


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
5,280 games 0.035 secs 150,857 games/sec
Board: 7s Ts 2d As
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.561% 49.62% 03.94% 2620 208.00 { Ac2c }
Hand 1: 46.439% 42.50% 03.94% 2244 208.00 { TT, 77, 22, A2s+, KsQs, KsJs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks6s, QsJs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs6s, Js9s, Js8s, T7s, 9s8s, 9s6s, 8s6s, 8s5s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s, A2o+ }

so my raise is good here. and i like the large-ish sizing. now i think about it, he probably has some TxJs-TxKs and other semi-made, semi-drawing hands as well. alterations to that range can only really make it weaker. moving along.

River
so he donk leads a shitty size, giving me 6:1, meaning i need 14% equity. i thought it was an easy call at the time (i basically just saw i was getting 6:1 and gave it no thought at all) but the pairing of the board meant i was basically chopping with the bottom of his range. far closer than i thought. stove:


Board: 7s Ts 2d As 7d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.609% 00.00% 22.61% 0 26.00 { Ac2c }
Hand 1: 77.391% 54.78% 22.61% 63 26.00 { TT, 77, 22, A2s+, KsQs, KsJs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks6s, QsJs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs6s, Js9s, Js8s, T7s, 9s8s, 9s6s, 8s6s, 8s5s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s, A2o+ }

he is a 58/0 at 10nl so there could be an argument for giving him a certain amount of combos of air, or stupid valuebluff hands like JT because he just doesn't know what he's doing. i think i played all streets as best i could expect myself to.

poker brain is now in gear and i'm ready to play a session.

here's one which i may or may not have fucked up. 3bettor is 8/6. his range is KK+. i know flatting 3bets OOP isn't cool, especially so when versus short stacks but at this price, and against such a strong range, i don't wanna fold. BB flatting obv helped too (BB is 41/26 over a small sample)

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($9.90)
BB ($19.84)
Hero (UTG) ($11.69)
MP ($10.13)
Button ($4.91)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 9
Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button raises $0.60, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.30
Flop: ($1.85) 10, 3, Q (3 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero raises $11.09 (All-In), Button calls $4.31 (All-In), 1 fold

so the BB decides to lead. i am 100% sure the BU is calling. i actually thought i had closer to 46-47% equity against KK+ on this board, but i only have 43%. anyway, i decided to jam because if i flat, the BU is shoving 100%. which gives the BB a good price to call, which means i am far less able to utilise any fold equity against hands like KQ in the BB's range (think BB lead, i flat, BU shoves, BB calls, i shove - BB is getting a nice price with anything top pairish). i felt like the BB leading made the pot large enough to jam and "flip" with the BU's overpair with the dead money. even with 0% FE (ie BB leads sets and sets only), i'm not getting it in TOO bad:


97,524 games 0.004 secs 24,381,000 games/sec
Board: Td 3h Qh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 08.416% 08.42% 00.00% 8208 0.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 30.528% 30.53% 00.00% 29772 0.00 { 9h8h }
Hand 2: 61.056% 61.06% 00.00% 59544 0.00 { QQ, TT, 33 }

however i felt that the BB was leading with some AQ,KQ which may fold to an overbet jam and a call. if his range is 33,TT,QQ,AQ,KQ, i doubt i require him to be folding many combos of AQ or KQ to make the jam +EV, because there are only 9 combos of sets and 24 combos of KQ,AQ (not factoring in that fact that BU ALWAYS has two blockers to this range, because i don't know how). my biggest fear was that BB was leading some FDs as well, almost all of which are going to have me crushed. however i think flush draws in his range are few (AhJh, AhKh, maybe KhJh), and he may not even be leading them OOP 3way in a 3bet pot. this hand is actually appearing more standard than i first thought.

i was going to use this as an example for an exercise in finding the required fold equity of a semi-bluff shove which spoon showed me but the fact that it isn't heads up is kind of confusing me. i guess i could consider the BU's stack as already in the pot before i shove, because there is no course of action which can prevent his money going in (well, misclicks). i'll give that a shot.


Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 9
Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button raises $0.60, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.30
Flop: ($1.85) 10, 3, Q (3 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero raises $11.09 (All-In), Button calls $4.31 (All-In), 1 fold


step 1: find our true bluff risk. i think this is the total pot when all the money is in, minus our share (equity) in that pot. so 1.8 + 4.31 + (2 * 11.09) = 28.29 minus rake = about $27. if villain calls all sets and the 3 FD combos, i have:


Board: Td 3h Qh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.435% 15.38% 00.06% 18330 67.50 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 26.563% 26.56% 00.00% 31662 0.00 { 9h8h }
Hand 2: 58.002% 57.95% 00.06% 69069 67.50 { QQ, TT, 33, AhKh, AhJh, KhJh }

that much equity. $28 / 26% = roughly $7. so my true risk is $11.09 -7 = 4.09.

step 2: the normal bluffing equation to find fold frequency, which = bet/(bet + pot)

4.09 / (4.09 + (1.8 + 1.5 + 4.31) = 34% required FE vs BB range.

some implications:
if he leads KQ,AQ,sets,and 3 FD combos, and calls a shove with above range only:

folds:
KQ (12), AQ (12) = 24 total

calls:
33 (3), TT (3), QQ (3), AhKh (1), AhJh (1), KhJh (1) = 12 total

so based on this range i have 66% FE. if we transfer the 12 combos of AQ into the calling range, i have 33%. if we say he never leads flush draws then my equity against the calling range changes altogether and i'd have to start over. that took some time. hope i did it right.

hes a 41/26, imo you have 0 FE and hes going to be stacking off with tons of Qx and flush draws (some of which better than yours) against

QQ,TT,33,AhKh,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,A h5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KJs+,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,QTs+,Qh9h,J 9s+,76s,65s,5h4h,AQo,KJo+,QTo+

and KK+

you have 36.6% equity, almost exactly what you need given that your shove is basically calling an all in as you have 0% fe imo...although its probably marginally a fold if your two options are shove/fold....if the BTN was deeper youd def have the odds to make this profitable but your risking 11.09 to win 11.09+4.31+1.85= 17.25 so you need 39% equity to call and as you can see you do not. Although the equation may be different when you are against 3 villains with uneven stack sizes and a side pot.

also ez fold pre if this is an FR game

Ac2c hand WP sir

all fair points philly, i'm not yet sure whether i like the 9h8h shove or not. fwiw worth the BB folded (i agree i have 0 FE vs BU, but thats fine because i am basically flipping versus his range) so he obviously was folding some of his leading range. also i think you may be giving too much importance to villain's 41vpip 26pfr over such a small sample (that or i'm giving it too little). i dont think he is really going to be bad enough to have all those Axhh hands. not in 3bet pot with a shortstack as the aggressor. i could be wrong. obv the more flush draws he has the worse it is for me to put money in the pot. hmmm

this one is a fold pre. villain is 11/11 over about 70.i tanked for a while and then the BC mantra "getting all-in pre w/KK 100bb deep is never a cooler", coupled with my fishy attachment to having the preflop second nuts, made me shove. i'm going to try do an EV equation on this one because it should be a simple one and learning how to do that kind of stuff is good for someone who wants to learn how to play poker.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($10)
UTG ($10.09)
MP1 ($9.79)
MP2 ($4.69)
Hero (CO) ($10.90)
Button ($7.89)
SB ($11.35)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
UTG bets $0.40, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.40, 1 fold, SB raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $10.90 (All-In), SB calls $7.40
Flop: ($22.30) 9, 6, J (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: ($22.30) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($22.30) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $22.30 | Rake: $1.11

ok so pot is 0.4 + 1.4 + 3.5 + 0.1 = 5.4.
i'm going to say for fun that his range is KK+,AK. i truly believe it's only KK+, but "wotev"

my immediate "risk" is $10.9 - 1.4 = $9.5 in order to win 5.4 (when he folds)
when i win i get current pot + opponens remaining stack. 5.4 + (10.9 - 3.5) = 12.8
when i lose, i obviously lose $10.9 which, i've established, is how much i'm "risking"

against KK+, AK i have

Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

he never folds any of that range so
0 * 5.4 = ldo (he folds)
0.47 * 12.8 = 6.016 (he calls, i win)
0.53 * -10.9 = -5.77 (he calls, i lose)

6.016 - 5.77 = 0.246. super marginally +EV.

now lets see how -EV it really was.

Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.618% 15.59% 07.03% 11209632 5056266.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 77.382% 70.35% 07.03% 50594604 5056266.00 { KK+ }

he never folds so yep.
0.22 * 12.8 = 2.816
0.77 * -10.9 = -8.93

2.816 - 8.93 = -6.114. not very pretty.

moral #1 - 11/11's at 10nl aren't 4betting anything but the nuts out of the blinds. especially not this size. if he does 4bet QQ or AK here i think he's more inclined to jam. definitely more so than with AA, which obv. wants to entice me to continue and create an SPR of ~1 if i call, or otherwise get it in pre.

moral #2 - even if they are 4betting the second nuts, getting it in vs that range is giving them a freeroll.

moral #3 - ranges, equity, fold equity, EV equations. i don't think this is a cooler for a player who can hand-read to a degree. granted, no tommy angelo money was exchanged (i'm sure this dude gets it in with KK pre 100% too), but i'd prefer to maximise my EV than say "oh well, he would have lost a stack in my spot. no reciprocal money changed hands"

this hand and a couple of legitimate coolers aside. i had a really good session today. +800bb. i was valuebet/folding in spots where i would have missed value before, and sigh-folding in spots where i would usually incorrectly sigh-call. i bumhunted some 25nl and lost a stack w/tptk against a 54/2 who check/called the flop with a gutter (creating a turn SPR of <1) and check/called the turn with his completed straight for obvious reasons. i'm going to wait until i clear my second $50 stellar bonus (1k veeps away) before i make another full-time move up to 25 again. i'm rolled for it at the moment but i'd prefer enough of a bankroll cushion to settle in and get some reads on the regs and general player pool etc before i set the stars filter minimum to 0.1/0.25. goodnight.

i'm going to post up a heap of hand histories now because i'll be away from my own computer over the weekend, and having these HH's posted with reads will give me some poker work to do while i can't grind. none of them are necessarily interesting or hard spots. just HH's i saved for the sake of doing in-depth hand analysis and getting to know my friend holdem a bit better.

villain is 25/4/0 over a small sample

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (UTG+1) ($26.78)
MP1 ($12.81)
MP2 ($33.25)
MP3 ($40.03)
CO ($10.67)
Button ($10.26)
SB ($21.50)
BB ($94.42)
UTG ($25.70)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $0.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Button calls $0.50, 1 fold, BB calls $0.40
Flop: ($2.23) 5, 7, J (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.90, MP2 calls $1.90, 2 folds
Turn: ($6.03) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.60, MP2 calls $4.60
River: ($15.23) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $9, 1 fold
Total pot: $15.23 | Rake: $0.74

villain is 21/5/0
he previously opened AQo and checked all streets behind with AQ high. if that even qualifies as a read

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($10.03)
MP3 ($36.56)
Hero (CO) ($10)
Button ($10.47)
SB ($10)
BB ($7.79)
UTG ($10.13)
UTG+1 ($8.10)
MP1 ($8.35)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 10, K
5 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.70) 4, 7, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.80
Turn: ($3.10) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.10, SB calls $2.10
River: ($7.30) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.40 (All-In), SB calls $6.40 (All-In)
Total pot: $20.10 | Rake: $0.98

villain is 55/9/0

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (CO) ($25.20)
Button ($22.26)
SB ($10.95)
BB ($21.27)
UTG ($22.07)
MP1 ($11.34)
MP2 ($24.98)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K
UTG calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.70, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.60, MP1 calls $0.60
Flop: ($2.39) 6, 5, K (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2, 1 fold
Turn: ($6.39) J (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6, UTG calls $6
River: ($18.39) 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $14, 1 fold
Total pot: $18.39 | Rake: $0.90

villain is 17/5/1.4 over 205
100% fold SBTS, 81% fold BBTS, 56% FTCB

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($10)
Hero (Button) ($28.29)
SB ($13.85)
BB ($11.56)
UTG ($32.91)
UTG+1 ($27.10)
MP1 ($14.22)
MP2 ($11.53)
MP3 ($22.45)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, J
6 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30
Flop: ($1.03) 10, 2, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BB calls $0.60
Turn: ($2.23) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.30, BB calls $1.30
River: ($4.83) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $2.30, Hero folds
Total pot: $4.83 | Rake: $0.23

and my favourite one of all.

villain is 38/2/1.3 who limp/folds a shitton and i have been isoing relentlessly this session. he hates me. i think he actually hunts me out as much as i do him. guess he finally had enough of me raising every time he limps. so he decided to put $25 in to show me who's boss. he had JTo btw.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($10)
CO ($23.66)
Button ($24.63)
Hero (SB) ($34.56)
BB ($27.18)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($52.37)
MP1 ($10)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
4 folds, CO calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.65, 1 fold, CO raises $23.54, Hero calls $22.94
Flop: ($47.38) 8, 4, 7 (2 players)
Turn: ($47.38) 5 (2 players)
River: ($47.38) K (2 players)
Total pot: $47.38

thankyou come again

Originally Posted by rpm

this one is a fold pre. villain is 11/11 over about 70.i tanked for a while and then the BC mantra "getting all-in pre w/KK 100bb deep is never a cooler", coupled with my fishy attachment to having the preflop second nuts, made me shove. i'm going to try do an EV equation on this one because it should be a simple one and learning how to do that kind of stuff is good for someone who wants to learn how to play poker.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($10)
UTG ($10.09)
MP1 ($9.79)
MP2 ($4.69)
Hero (CO) ($10.90)
Button ($7.89)
SB ($11.35)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
UTG bets $0.40, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.40, 1 fold, SB raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $10.90 (All-In), SB calls $7.40
Flop: ($22.30) 9, 6, J (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: ($22.30) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($22.30) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $22.30 | Rake: $1.11

ok so pot is 0.4 + 1.4 + 3.5 + 0.1 = 5.4.
i'm going to say for fun that his range is KK+,AK. i truly believe it's only KK+, but "wotev"

my immediate "risk" is $10.9 - 1.4 = $9.5 in order to win 5.4 (when he folds)
when i win i get current pot + opponens remaining stack. 5.4 + (10.9 - 3.5) = 12.8
when i lose, i obviously lose $10.9 which, i've established, is how much i'm "risking"

against KK+, AK i have

Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

he never folds any of that range so
0 * 5.4 = ldo (he folds)
0.47 * 12.8 = 6.016 (he calls, i win)
0.53 * -10.9 = -5.77 (he calls, i lose)

6.016 - 5.77 = 0.246. super marginally +EV.

now lets see how -EV it really was.

Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.618% 15.59% 07.03% 11209632 5056266.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 77.382% 70.35% 07.03% 50594604 5056266.00 { KK+ }

he never folds so yep.
0.22 * 12.8 = 2.816
0.77 * -10.9 = -8.93

2.816 - 8.93 = -6.114. not very pretty.

moral #1 - 11/11's at 10nl aren't 4betting anything but the nuts out of the blinds. especially not this size. if he does 4bet QQ or AK here i think he's more inclined to jam. definitely more so than with AA, which obv. wants to entice me to continue and create an SPR of ~1 if i call, or otherwise get it in pre.

moral #2 - even if they are 4betting the second nuts, getting it in vs that range is giving them a freeroll.

moral #3 - ranges, equity, fold equity, EV equations. i don't think this is a cooler for a player who can hand-read to a degree. granted, no tommy angelo money was exchanged (i'm sure this dude gets it in with KK pre 100% too), but i'd prefer to maximise my EV than say "oh well, he would have lost a stack in my spot. no reciprocal money changed hands"

You can always just call the raise pre-flop. Also, ffs don't do semi-bluff calculations with the second nuts. Hopefully you see why.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

You can always just call the raise pre-flop.

That's true, but it probably won't help much unless an A or K come. I guess if it's monotone, it may help us decide whether to fold or continue. Otherwise, I think the money still goes in. Is there any other reason to call preflop?

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

You can always just call the raise pre-flop. Also, ffs don't do semi-bluff calculations with the second nuts. Hopefully you see why.

haha the "semi-bluff" i was referring to was the 98hh hand where i jammed the flop, perhaps on the last page now. that KK was just a hand i wanted to dissect in terms of EV to show myself that stacking off with KK preflop isn't always +EV

Originally Posted by rpm

haha the "semi-bluff" i was referring to was the 98hh hand where i jammed the flop, perhaps on the last page now. that KK was just a hand i wanted to dissect in terms of EV to show myself that stacking off with KK preflop isn't always +EV

lol oh

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

That's true, but it probably won't help much unless an A or K come. I guess if it's monotone, it may help us decide whether to fold or continue. Otherwise, I think the money still goes in. Is there any other reason to call preflop?

lol what? we get to play our hand in position against a much weaker range instead of making a roughly break even 3b

glanced at the 98s hand and it's terrible, you should call and try to get an overcall

well maybe not terrible but your reasoning was

if BU shoves and you get it in 3-way here that's an amazingly +EV printing money out the ass result, idk why you didn't want that

also that thing i showed you only works heads up... if you're multiway it's a lot different =/

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

lol what? we get to play our hand in position against a much weaker range instead of making a roughly break even 3b

I thought you meant he should flat the SB raise instead of shoving. So, against the SB, there's no reason to think his range is much weaker unless he's a known squeezer. If you're saying to call the UTG open raise...... that's something I've been thinking about but so far I'm still 3betting KK. If we're just calling, it's probably better to do it in a heads-up situation, if possible.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

I thought you meant he should flat the SB raise instead of shoving. So, against the SB, there's no reason to think his range is much weaker unless he's a known squeezer. If you're saying to call the UTG open raise...... that's something I've been thinking about but so far I'm still 3betting KK. If we're just calling, it's probably better to do it in a heads-up situation, if possible.

Yeah I meant just call the original raise

ok so my results have been sucking lately and as a result i haven't had the confidence in my poker abilities to be able to make the "thin" vbets or fire bluffs in ldo spots that are so vital to a decent win-rate. this is basically results orientedness, things like "the last time i tried to get 3 streets with TPTK that dude had a set and check/shoved on me, i'll check it back" in spots where i can, and should, be going for 3 streets because it has a positive expectation based on his ranges for calling said bets. i'm taking this as one of my all-too-regular wake up calls to stop focussing so hard on volume and winning fast money, and spend more time studying this game, thus increasing my $$/happiness EV when i do play. with thus in mind, i intend to spend far more time studying poker in the near future while i'm grinding out the rest of the school year, doing things like:

- range/combo counting practice
- bet/potsize relations and what these mean for v-betting, bluffing, semi-bluffing, calling bets etc etc
- HH analysis (obv ties in with above two)
- "ABCD" ranges and exploitative play, my last coaching session was a real eye-opener in this department
- whatever else spoon shows me

and when i play:
- no more than 4 tables
- "how's my awareness?"
- "how's my mood"
- "how am i playing"
etc, etc

basically, i want to increase my poker and general happiness EV by keeping myself stimulated by this game (studying it), and making every effort to be playing with an emphasis on qualitative factors rather than quantitative. in which case i will hopefully be able to say "i just lost a big pot, but the way i played the hand was the best i could have expected myself to given my current level of poker skill and understanding. next hand plz". to be able to say this is an important thing, i think, and it seems to come from having done the hard work behind the scenes, so that i know that i just made a +EV value bet even though he called with better, or whatever. right view is what i'm after.

i may post some of my studies here for anyone who happens to read this thread. i think i've just about finished ranting now. less talk, more rock imo. seeya.

hello. my most recent session with spoon was about coming to understand pot equity and fold equity, and how to exploit said knowledge. my task is to go through my database and find some spots where my opponents ranges are particularly weak (or strong). not really sure exactly what kind if spots to look for here but lately i've been thinking there's a lot of $$ to be made in 3-betting in position and knowing how to deal with flops given that opponent has called a 3bet.

here's my first opponent. some of these stats may prove irrelevant but wotev.

he's 22/12/3.0 (3bet) over 2k hands.

ATS VS steal
CO: 24% (82) Fold SB: 85% (39), Fold BB: 78% (32)
BU: 49% (41) Call SB: 5% (39), Call BB: 19% (32)
SB: 55% (33) 3bet SB: 10%(39), 3bet BB: 3% (32)

so far he's looking positionally aware, and slightly on the looser side of TAGG.

so now i want to see what his range is like for calling 3bets OOP. and what he does postflop with that range. he has a 44% fold to 3bet over 27, which i'm not going to give much weight to. some postflop stats:

Check/raises 3% of flops (assumedly this is his nut range)
Cbets 76% and 100% in 3bet pots as PFR
Folds CB to raise 60%
Folds to CB 65%, 56% (9) in 3bet pots
Raise CB: 12%

Turn CB: 49% (39)
Turn FTCB: 56% (9)

so most of that looks pretty standard, except the low FTCB in 3B pots, which is quite probably due to a small sample.

just had a look over the hands where he raise/called a 3bet pre and gathered no significant reads. gotta go to a lecture now. i'll leave the stats up and find some dirt on this guy later.

Getting coached by spoon, eh? IT'S A TARP! I CHARGE ONLY $29.95 FOR MY WHOLE POKER COURSE ON HOW TO CRUSH MICROS PM ME FOR DETAILS!!!11

In all seriousness, great work so far man. Keep posting hands and doing analysis. It's something I really skipped out on when I first started playing and I'm really regretting it now that I have to go back and relearn everything all over again. GL and gogogogo

cheers dranger. appreciate it.

ok so using that dude as a template and then picking apart where his ranges are weak didn't really work. i couldn't seem to find anything significant. no doubt there are many scanarios which would be noticed by the observant eye, but i couldn't seem to spot any major ones. i was probably looking in the wrong places (both in his play and within the software capabilities of HEM) but whatever. i'll find someone else.

been playing far too much lately to and neglecting study. in my head it's justified as being for the BC volume prop, but it's just laziness with a mask on. i've already done nearly 1/2 my required hours for the month and it's only the 5th day ffs. that said, for at least the rest of october, i will put in a minimum of 1.5hrs and maximum of 2hrs of study AND play every day. else i suck. i'll report here each day within that period to confirm that i did it. just because it really fucking has to be done. i know no-one cares but if it increases my chances of reaching these goals then it's pretty goddamn +EV. too many times i've got a small taste of $$ success (relative term, i know) in poker and started playing way too often/much, studying far too little, inevitably losing my $$, tilting, and beginning the grind from scratch vowing never to become such a degenerate again (rinse, repeat etc). right now is a great opportunity for me to break that cycle.

in other extremely significant FTR news, i've now (re)beat 10nl for 2000bb, cleared my second $50 stellar reward, and cashed 9k veeps for $100. i feel my roll is now adequately padded to move up to 25nl and hopefully settle in there and continue my path of improvement at poker.

goodnight.

edit: as if i really was going to do anything as organised as what i described in the post. pfft

oh by the way if anyone is serious about becoming a good poker player, this is a pretty inspirational thing to read. old news to many of you i'm sure but...


http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...te-167542.html

our villain here is 16/8/4.9 (3b) over 1.4k
semi-positionally aware with an ATS of 18%.
he c-bets only 53%, folds to cbet 61%
cbets 56% of turns and folds to 67% of cbets


it was his low cbet that made me interested because him doing an action as commonplace as c-betting at microstakes far less frequently than most must indicate that he has a strong range when he does so. so i hit up the database.

of the 19 hands where he raised preflop and checked the flop, he went to showdown 12 times (thus i can see his hand in HEM) of these 12 times he had:

missed broadways 9 times
1 gutterball + two overs (KQ on J9x in position)
1 middle pocket pair (88 on 3QJ, pretty standard check imo)
and a weird AA on 426 vs an utter fish that really was an ldo bet/bet/bet

the 7 other times in which he opened pre and checked the flop had the following boards:

AQ6r
286tt
552r
AK8tt
2K6r
AT8tt
4AQtt

some of which are decent boards to cbet with a lot of his opening range, which i'll assume is something like 22+,AJs+,KQ+.

of the 23 hands where he raised pre and bet flop, 11 went to the turn. of these he 11, he showed further aggression (bet, raise, or C/R) 7 times. one of the 4 times that he did raise pre/bet flop/check turn, he had aces on 24569 and attempted to vbet the river.

so what can i make of all this? i think it is fair to say that this guy's flop c-betting range is likely to be very strong. i obviously don't get to see his hole cards in all of them, but his small cbet %, and the fact that i have seen him check hands like KQ on 9Jx in position leads me to believe that he may only be c-betting hands stronger than top pair, and perhaps 8+ out draws (no record that he either bets or checks these). thus, the converse of this is true. when he checks he typically has middlish pairs (with at least an overcard on the board), bricked broadway hands, or weak draws. to exploit this i could begin calling his preflop raises lighter in position, best hands to start loosening up with would probably be suited aces, or suited connectors - hands which can flop me some equity for when he does have a hand and cbets, or when he check calls. this guy is also probably quite vulnerable to me firing two barrels on certain boards, because the weakness of his flop checking range likely carries over to later streets.

ok so i just realised that setting the filter to "raise preflop" and "check flop" only includes the times he checks AND his opponent checks. i assumed it was any hand in which he raised preflop and checked the flop. however the filter i was using did not include times he c/f'd, c/c'd, or c/r'd and as such may be a distorted picture of this guy's playing tendencies.

on a similar topic to my second and third most recent posts. i realised after reading M2M's blog, and using a little bit of logic, that a good way to ensure you are productive and accomplishing goals is to set goals. genius eh. so from here on i am going to be more goal-oriented in this thread instead of just dumping HH's or poker analysis when i feel like it. i think i'll take it one month at a time, so i can keep the aims relevant to what i want to be doing. so for october:

[ ] average of between 1.5hrs and 2hrs study and play each day between now and the end of the month. study is always first in a given day.
[ ] post at least one hand from each session from which i feel something could be learnt by analysing it. either in here or in the BC.
[ ] re-watch eightfold path to poker enlightenment
[ ] complete current exercises for spoon and book another session.

i have other shit i hope to do, like exercise more. but this is a poker forum eh? that's the first time i've ever used those trendy [ ] boxes. hopefully by the end of the month i'll have 4 x's (and have passed 4 exams).

havent played poker since last post due to internet problems. i'm currently at my parents. glad i got in my early-month degeneracy sessions to ease the pressure for the volume prop.

all this is over 1200ish hand sample.

our villain here is 12/10/3.5 3bet.
attempts to steal 28%.
folds SB TS 93% (15), BB 77% (26)
cbets 72% (50), and i somehow have nowhere near relevant sample for fold to CB

after browsing through some of my database, it seems that this guy is pretty solid for 10nl. one thing which may be interesting is, when i filtered for hands in which he raised pre, bet flop, and bet turn, only in one did he have a hand weaker than top pair (in which he had AJ on TQ34)

KQ on 4QJK
AJ on A269
JJ on T848
AT on A9QA
QQ on 982K (ok he didn't have top pair on this turn but it was against a 50/9 so i think vbetting that turn is pretty standard)

so his range when he fires the second barrel is typically quite strong, however, i think there is a fair chance he is robotically bet/folding a lot of these hands, like AJ on A269 or JJ on T848. so if he is doing this, it would be a good spot to start including some stronger draws as semi-bluffs in my raising range (other than my "nut" hands which i raise for pure value) because:

- they are the "non-made" hands with the most pot equity in my total range
- i have fold equity if he is bet/folding hands as strong as say AJ on Axxx

unfortunately i don't have a significant sample of hands in which i saw him bet/fold or bet/call the turn, and i don't play much 10nl anymore so i don't have new hands coming in for analysis. however i think the point of spoon getting me to do this is to be able to spot weak and strong ranges, and to learn how to best adjust our ranges to exploit both these things.

so, in this case, it seems that this guy does not bet the turn with weaker than top pair. while this range appears strong, its real strength depends on what he does with it when faced with aggression. if he is capable of taking the raise pre -> bet flop -> bet/fold turn line with hands as strong TPTK or something, then his range is actually weak (because there are way more combos of TPTK hands than sets and the like) because of the way he plays it when faced with aggression. thus i could begin to include semi-bluffs in my raising range, as mentioned before.

conversely if he is bet/calling the turn with some of those middle strength hands, my obvious adjustment would be to figure out what the worst hand is that i can raise for value vs that range and using that as my baseline. i'd probably want to consider removing most semi-bluffs too because they depend on fold equity, which is small against his turn range.

hope i'm doing this right. i'll move on.

The reason you don't have a relevant sample on fold to cbets is because he's a nitty TAG. He isn't calling pre a lot, so people can't cbet vs him, so he can't fold. DUC?

We talked about this in PMs. Looks good. Carry on.

15/11/3.5 3bet over 2.2k.

folds SB 96%, folds BB 88%, rarely flats out of the blinds.
steals are 44% from CO, 59% from BU, and 80% from SB

postflop he cbets 81% of flops (100% in 3bet ones)
folds to CB 81%.

so far we can see he's basically a standard TAGgish kind of player who plays pretty straightforward - tight/aggressive preflop, folding to lots of cbets, cbetting lots of folders etc etc

81% is a shitload of flops to be cbetting. which means he's doing it with a weaker range. his turn cbet stat is only 37% which says two things:
- confirms above hypothesis about weak range on the turn when he raises pre and cbets flop
- that he seems to get "back in line" to a large degree on the turn.

master logician!

taking a look at hands where he raised pre, cbet flop, checked turn, it becomes apparent that this guy makes some weird cbets, the kind of ones where "nothing worse calls, nothing better folds", hands like

TT on A94tt
88 on Q4Kr
88 on J7Att
TT on J95tt

this guy's quite probably better than me at poker, so i may be wrong here. but these seem like pretty meh cbet spots. regardless, his range is far weaker than most people's when he cbets, and that's exploitable (his fold Cbet to raise stat is 56% out of 9 opportunities)

so what can i do to get my money printing machine working vs this guy?

his range is very weak when he cbets. because of it's size, it is probably weak in terms of both pot equity, and vulnerability to aggression (fold equity)

so as an adjustment to this, i want to be aggressive with a weak range against his flop cbet range:
- semi-bluff more flops with flush draws, open enders, and gutters
- raise more air with blockers (ie AK on Q83 type boards)/backdoor draws.
- consider taking some nut hands out of my flop raising range (i would only do this on the driest of boards, ie JJ on J52r)

so if i want to be aggressive with my weak range. i'm definitely going to be flatting all top pairs and some middlish pairs depending on the board texture. because he's cbetting with a lot worse, and rarely getting aggro on the turn or river without some idea that he's "value betting".

pity i don't play with these guys any more. hopefully soon i'll have a decent sample on some of 25nl buddies and be able to set up my 25nl money-printing machine.

I used to not cbet those spots but now I do. Shitty reason but sometimes just allowing yourself not to get bluffed/playing the hand easier/picking up the dead money makes me want to just cbet them. May be wrong but it's more profitable for myself if I'm not good enough to c/c in similar spots.

interesting. i've always pondered on the merit of cbetting simply to avoid being made to fold by 100% of villain's range when we check flop and check turn. even the worst of poker players senses weakness in the raise pre, check flop, check turn line. as i said, i could well be wrong, but i personally wouldn't cbet those spots.

i guess it's a matter of personal preference.

If we c/f 100% of the time then betting is definitely better. But yeah, for me just going ahead and cbetting is more profitable. But enough hijack, I'm enjoying the thread. Good analysis.

dudes 24/15/5.7 over 1.2k.
ATS is 33%
folds SB 73%, BB 67%
cbets 44% and folds to 50% of cbets.

from memory he plays only 250bb deep and he think he's the shit. always talking in the chat about how everybody else is a nit etc etc. talking vpip/pfr with his mates. anyway, this guy likes to 3bet to defend his blinds. he has 3bet 9% of 33 opportunities from the BB and 19% of 26 from the SB. not highly statistically significant due to a small sample. but i think that the total 59 hand sample means it's pretty likely he is 3betting wider than most people. which is QQ+,AK out of the blinds. some hands:

4bet jam ATo from SB vs me in BB.

there are a lot of weird hands where he was minraising and min 3-betting in the blinds with ridiculous hands like T6o, 84o, J4o. so not sure what to make of that. he may be a reg from higher stakes who felt like spewing some cheap BB's. don't know.

after having a look at these hands, those min3bet hands are a significant part of the sample, and i'm not sure how to treat them. at first i thought it was out of character and could have been someone else playing in this person's account, but he has been doing it over two different sessions. confusing. i think i can conclude from this guy's vpip/pfr as well as the 4bet jam that he is generally far more aggressive preflop than most of the regs. and i want to widen my 3bet/4bet for value range from the blinds, especially if it gives him the last aggressive action before the stacks go in, and probably felt JJ+,AK because he seems willing to 4bet jam pretty light.


636,977,088 games 0.609 secs 1,045,939,389 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.388% 50.18% 00.21% 319646364 1315602.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 49.612% 49.41% 00.21% 314699520 1315602.00 { QQ+, AKs, A8s-A2s, AKo }

that's my equity against a range weighted roughly 50/50 between nut hands and bluffs. showing that JJ is the worst hand i can call with vs that range.

also if he makes some retarded min 3bet from the blinds, his range is probably going to be weak.

i've decided i'm going to start posting the two hands where i lost the most $$ in my most recent sessions in here in a kind of "lop off my big-pot C-game" attempt.


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($32.53)
SB ($32.58)
BB ($38.35)
UTG ($27.72)
Hero (UTG+1) ($25)
MP1 ($27.27)
MP2 ($25.35)
CO ($10)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K
UTG calls $0.25, Hero bets $1, 6 folds, UTG calls $0.75
Flop: ($2.35) K, 10, 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.10, UTG calls $2.10
Turn: ($6.55) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.30, UTG calls $6.30
River: ($19.15) J (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $19.15

villain here is 59/21 over 74. he's on my list of bums to hunt for. i think this one's totally standard. he had 4c3c. i'll do a quick street-by-street range analysis just because it's been a while.

preflop
22-77,A2s-AJs,A8o-AJo,K4s+,KTo+,Q7s+,Q9o+,J7s+,J9o+,T9s-43s, T8s-53s,T9o-43o

he may even have some suited two gappers but whatever, his range is wide.

flop
22,K4-K9s,KT+,QJ,QT,Q9,JT,J9,T9,T8s,33-99 and roughly 25 flush draws (off the top of my head)

this guys calling range doesn't change much against any betsize under pot, i am near the top of my range so i defo should have bet pot. i just kind of felt like auto-potting turned my hand too face up even against a fish. pot-sized bets seem to tend to stand out and ring alarm bells for players on sites with auto-pot buttons. anyway,

Turn
i improve, the only hand in his flop range which now has me beat is JQ, lots of his flush draws made top pair, some of his hands made two pair, and he's check/calling ALL flush draws for any betsize up to pot. easy, easy, easy value bet here. he probably check/calls some of his stronger kings as well.

22,K9s,KT+,QJ,QT,JT and roughly 25 flush draws (off the top of my head)


Board: Ks Ts Ah 2h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.370% 70.37% 00.00% 2508 0.00 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 29.630% 29.63% 00.00% 1056 0.00 { ATs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs-KTs, QJs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, JTs, Js9s, Js8s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 4s3s, ATo, KJo-KTo, QTo+, JTo }

not the exact range i typed out before but we see the rough equity situation here. every BB i could have bet against which this is still his calling range i lost value by not betting. silly me.

river
i'm going for three streets on almost any non-spade river. this one falls and now all flush draws got there, as well as any Q. against his river "parent" range i now only have


Board: Ks Ts Ah 2h Js
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.571% 38.57% 00.00% 27 0.00 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 61.429% 61.43% 00.00% 43 0.00 { ATs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs-KTs, QJs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, JTs, Js9s, Js8s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 4s3s, ATo, KJo-KTo, QTo+, JTo }

so if his calling range is any smaller than that, which it would be, value-betting becomes worse and worse. ok so this one was super standard as best i can see and the only mistakes i think i made were scrolling down 1 or 2bb from the potsized bets the AP auto-pot button supplied me. nexthand.

our friend here is 17/9 over 46 but his stats were a bit nittier when we played this. pretty sure he was 11/7. i'm posting this because it was a tilty call and anyone who sees it should tell me i suck and that i'm a pussy calling-station.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($15.12)
SB ($54.92)
BB ($20.43)
UTG ($31.97)
UTG+1 ($40.54)
MP1 ($17)
Hero (MP2) ($25)
MP3 ($23.62)
CO ($10.38)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, K
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero bets $1, 4 folds, BB raises $2.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50
Flop: ($5.35) 8, 3, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($5.35) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero calls $3
River: ($11.35) Q (2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero calls $5
Total pot: $21.35

preflop
this guy's range is so thin i have almost no excuse not to play perfectly against it

QQ+,AK. he may have some combos of JJ in there and he may not have some combos of QQ. no real read as regards preflop 3betting. but he is a nit. so yep

quick combo count
beats me:
AA (6)
i beat:
QQ (6)
i have probably ~65% against:
AK (8)

(edit: just stoved it and AA has 70% vs AK)

there may an argument for jamming but tbh i felt like i would have been getting it in vs KK+, and i had position in a 3bet pot versus a very small range and an opponent likely to play very straighforward. so i decided to flat.

flop
he checks which perhaps weights his range towards AK a bit, but i'm unsure of that. i decide to check back because, assuming he folds all AK's, i'm value bettnig into QQ+ against which i have 50%. however if he 3bets QQ pre at a lower frequency than AA (even 5 combos of QQ to 6 of AA) then i have <50% equity and checking has a higher EV than betting. this seems standard but correct me if i'm wrong. also i don't want to fold out AK because i might be able to get a bluff lead from it on the turn.

turn
the card itself doesn't change our ranges/equity much at all. he leads, and i decide to flat because raising puts me up against AA almost all the time. and i hoped my flop check might have induced a bet like this from AK on the turn.

river
when he leads here, i'm fucked. i just tilted, checked my pot odds and then fuckyou-called him down. the only hands in his preflop range i now beat are AK. and he's not leading the turn AND river with AK very much if at all. just to show myself how much these tilty calls are costing me i'm going to look at my equity versus some different ranges.

so he bets with a range, and i have to have the best hand against that range roughly 23-24% of the time.

this is what i think his actual range is:


Board: 8s 3h 5c 9c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 05.000% 00.00% 05.00% 0 0.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 95.000% 90.00% 05.00% 9 0.50 { QQ+ }

now i'll incrementally add in AK combos (the only hands in his preflop range that i now beat)


Board: 8s 3h 5c 9c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.636% 09.09% 04.55% 1 0.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 86.364% 81.82% 04.55% 9 0.50 { QQ+, AhKh }


Board: 8s 3h 5c 9c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.833% 16.67% 04.17% 2 0.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 79.167% 75.00% 04.17% 9 0.50 { QQ+, AdKd, AhKh }


Board: 8s 3h 5c 9c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.923% 23.08% 03.85% 3 0.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 73.077% 69.23% 03.85% 9 0.50 { QQ+, AdKd, AhKh, AhKd

so it takes three combos of bricked AK's to tip the range scales far enough to give me 25% equity to make this a call. makes sense. 9 combos i lose to (AA,QQ), means i need to beat 3 (hence i was getting 3:1). thats actually so simple and logical i'm kind of ashamed i didn't know how to work that out before this and had to post this hand up. i should definitely be able to do this kind of math at the table. seems i need some more work on weighting ranges in my head. anyway, back to exam studyland with me.

oh by the way i'm aware of how much value this guy missed by
- 3betting small pre
- checking a low flop to which i have heaps of overpairs in my range
- not betting $4.5 on the turn on which he probably gets called by all of TT-KK because lol he 3bet pre and checked flop he has AK

so i tilted and quit my session pretty early on after being a fish in that hand. so i'll post a HH i saved ages ago. little reads except this person is 25/17.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($25.25)
MP2 ($25)
CO ($25.54)
Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($11.66)
BB ($25.26)
UTG ($19.93)
UTG+1 ($25.60)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, A
5 folds, Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.60) 2, 10, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($1.60) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25
River: ($4.10) J (2 players)
BB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50
Total pot: $9.10 | Rake: $0.44

so i guess i saved this one to determine in analysis if the river was a call when he is almost never bluffing. to do this i have to know what his range for getting to the river is. i'll start preflop.

preflop
according to stove, i'm opening 43% of hands here if A2o is the bottom of my range. that doesn't really mean much but i just thought i'd see what my actual hand scores in theoryland.

so he flats and seems to a relatively in-line kind of player based purely on his vpip and pfr over an almost insignificant sample.

22-JJ, A8s-AQs,ATo-AQo,KJs+,QJs-76s

looks about right give or take a few hands.

flop
may be argument to turn my hand into a 5 out "semi-bluff" and bet this flop, but i felt i'd only be getting 33,55,66 to fold incorrectly. plus much of his overcard range i might want to "protect my equity" against actually suffers from RIO because i have an ace. i like a check here.

turn
i don't think he's ever fucking about here. he has a decentish made hand or draw. also i'm inclined to discount all two pairs.

22,44,TT,JJ,A8s,A9s,AJ-AQ, KJss-KQss, KJdd-KQdd, and the other roughly 14 suited connectors combos that have flush draws

river
so the backdoor draw completes, the KQss makes the nut straight, and other than that i think the only hand from his turn range that went from the "i currently beat" to "beats me" is AJ.

he leads out with what i believe is a purely "for value" range from his perspective. i'm gonna toy with different ranges to see the validity of calling here.

so here's what i'm going to consider his nut range for which i will try do do a quick combo count


Board: 2s Ts 4d Ad Jd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { Ah2c }
Hand 1: 100.000% 100.00% 00.00% 37 0.00 { JJ-TT, 44, 22, AJs, KQs, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, AJo, KQo }

roughly 34 combos i think. just remembered that i definitely should have TsJs in that range but it wouldn't make a huge difference. 1 more combo i beat.

getting a bit better than 2.5:1 i think i need about 28 or 29% equity for calling to be breakeven. if i was smart i could probably set up an algebra equation to find what number 34 is 71% of. but i'm not so i'll just start adding in combos in stove.

so i did the whole begin adding combos in, then copied and pasted the wrong stove output into this thread and clicked "clear all" in stove and cbf punching all the ranges back in. basically him having all AQ combos in his range wasn't enough to make it a call. and i doubt he vbets A9 so i concluded it was a pretty standard fold that i failed to make here.

maybe it's because i havent played FR in some time but the KK hand you massacred every street

fair call. where did i go wrong in your opinion? i tried to provide some of my logic for each decision on each street above so please pick apart at will!

ended up puttin in a >10 minute session last night. the three biggest losers were coolers and not of any real interest but i want to get in the habit of doing this so i'll post them up.

villain is 20/5 with 1.8 3bet over 200. his preflop range is something like QQ+,AK. so most of the time he's flopped an overpair with a picture flush draw and wants it in. i pot it expecting him to checl/jam all overpairs and all Ac or Kc. also to give him the wrong odds to call if he ever C/C's a naked FD.


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($29.72)
BB ($25.37)
UTG ($23.26)
UTG+1 ($25)
MP1 ($25.37)
MP2 ($19.22)
CO ($4.59)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
5 folds, Hero bets $0.75, SB raises $1.65, 1 fold, Hero raises $3.75, SB calls $2.75
Flop: ($9.25) 2, 10, 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9.25, SB raises $25.22 (All-In), Hero calls $11.25 (All-In)
Turn: ($50.25) J (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: ($50.25) A (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $50.25


Board: 2c Tc 6c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.168% 62.64% 02.53% 11163 450.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 34.832% 32.31% 02.53% 5757 450.00 { QQ+, AcKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc }

that looks like a pretty standard shoving range. even if he doesn't do it with the AxKc high:


Board: 2c Tc 6c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.276% 62.60% 02.67% 10536 450.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 34.724% 32.05% 02.67% 5394 450.00 { QQ+, AcKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs }

wotev

this one is also super standard as best i can tell on all streets:

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($60.25)
Hero (SB) ($25)
BB ($37.23)
UTG ($6.20)
UTG+1 ($33.35)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($25)
CO ($8.75)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 bets $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, Hero raises $4.15, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $4, MP2 calls $3.25, Button calls $3.25
Flop: ($17.50) K, 9, K (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets $10.25, 1 fold, Hero raises $20.75 (All-In), 1 fold, MP2 calls $10.50 (All-In)
Turn: ($59) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: ($59) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $59

had KQs ldo. although i should say, this guy is 12/10. so i was surprised that he even had KQs in his range. this is my equity if KQs is the worst hand in his range:


Board: Kd Ks 9h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.410% 19.77% 22.64% 1370 1569.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 57.590% 34.95% 22.64% 2422 1569.00 { 99, AKs, KQs, AKo }

so it's not as insta-snap cally as i first thought. however i'm never folding in case he's bad enough to have KQo or KJs in there as well.

and the last of my totally inconsequential hands to waste some e-space with today:

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($7.71)
SB ($8.75)
BB ($5)
UTG ($26.89)
Hero (UTG+1) ($35.48)
MP1 ($11.08)
MP2 ($35.76)
CO ($12.91)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K
1 fold, Hero bets $1, 3 folds, Button calls $1, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 8, J, A (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, Button raises $3, Hero raises $9.85, Button calls $3.71 (All-In)
Turn: ($15.77) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($15.77) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $15.77

now to do some real poker work.

i think i've already used this guy before but i've found some more dirt on him. he seems to be opening super duper wide on the button when folded to, and has a very high fold to 3bet.

basically he's a 15/11/3.5 10nl TAG who has probably moved up by now because he seemingly doesn't suck.

his ATS stats are as follows:
CO - 44% (91)
BU - 59% (68)
SB - 80% (35)

he has also folded to 90% of 30 3bets. this obviously doesn't mean he's folding 90% of his opening range to a 3bet, but it does show that he gives respect to 3bettors and seems to tighten up a lot more than most at 10nl when faced with a 3b.

so my obvious adjustment here, when in the blinds and this guy opens from the CO, BU, or SB after being folded to is to start 3betting quite wide. as default i would probably be 3betting QQ+,AK for "value" however if i started to get the feeling he was folding hands as strong as AQ, i'd drop AK from the 3bet range and add more bluffs.

i imagine the best hands to start "opening up" and 3betting this guy with would be low Axs or Kxs hands because they
- have blockers to his nut range
- can flop decent equity against his calling range, which will most likely be something like 66+,AQ+

the more he's folding to 3bets, the more inclined i will be to remove "nut" hands from my 3bet range and add more bluffs. because the more vulnerable and exploitable his range is to aggression, the weaker i want my aggressive range to be. also i don't want to 3bet a hand like AK and then be forced to fold it to a 4bet from a range of (for exhaggerated example) KK+, when i could have flatted it and kept a million worse Ax combos in his range, and had a weak range to be aggressive with to exploit that fact that he folds so much and only jams 12 combos.

one thing ive noticed, everytime someoen 3bets you in the sb or bb and you raised in lp you auto have his range as QQ+ AK, and that may be his value range but i assure you that people are going to be 3betting you with other shit there than just that

hmm true. thanks for pointing that out philly. i think i should invest some study time in the near future to looking at play from the blinds. both my own and others and how i should be changing mine in response to others. i've been starting to think lately that i have some significant preflop leaks. i wouldn't be surprised if my play in/vs the blinds was one of them.

Originally Posted by rpm

the more he's folding to 3bets, the more inclined i will be to remove "nut" hands from my 3bet range and add more bluffs. because the more vulnerable and exploitable his range is to aggression, the weaker i want my aggressive range to be unless he adjusts by 4-betting more.

fyp

so i just re-read blind-stealing 101 and 102 in an attempt to better understand the dynamics of exploitative play in/vs the blinds. i decided that perhaps the best thing to do would be to just use some opponents from my database, make up hypothetical scenarios to do with blind play, and then toy with ranges and try to figure out how i should be playing mine based on how they play theirs. just for kicks i'm going to pretend i'm in the blinds reacting against a 3x steal from myself (or some clone who has all the same tendencies). maybe using my own play as the focus will highligh some leaks. i'm going to only use stats for my last 10k hands because there won't be much deep-stacked play in there to skew my stats.

16/13/2.6 (3bet)
ATS = 34%
CO = 26%
BU = 41%
SB = 40%

vs steal SB BB
Fold 94% 88%
Call 3% 4%
3Bet 3% 8%

so clearly i am super-exploitable in the blinds for anyone with a hud and half a brain.
0.94 * 0.88 = 82% of the time i fold my blinds to a steal

so if i saw a person with my stats in the blinds, i'd realise that i can raise a very wide and weak range as a blind-steal because they fold so often that the preflop raise is +EV in a vacuum. probably a range of something like:

22+,A2s+,A2o+,K4s+,K8o+,Q6s+,Q9o+,J7s+,J9o+,T7s+,T 8o+ as well as 98s-43s, 97s-53s, 98o-43o, 97o-86o

or roughly 48.5% of total hands.

(note to whoever may read this, the hero from now on is in the blinds, and facing a robot opponent who just opened with a range of 48.5%, which subdivides as i say it does)

so obviously "he" can't continue with very much of that range to a 3bet, which would be the first range i'd construct in my head being in the blinds facing a guy who is stealing 48.5%

how could i adjust my blind play against a very large, weak stealing range?
just because my opponents range is weak, i'm still going to 3betting value hands because he does have a hand SOMEtimes, and also i don't want my 3b range to be purely air because then it kind of sucks every time i get called.

i think i'd probably 3bet a range of something like JJ+,AK for value expecting to be flatted by (this isn't necessarily MY actual range but a caricature positionally aware 25nler opening 48.5%) something like 66-QQ,AQs,AKo and be 4bet by KK+ almost exclusively

(this range which continues, either calling or raising, to the 3bet is 5.6% of hands, so very roughly 1/9th of the opening range, meaning he continues to the BB 3bet roughly 10% of the time)

so what other hands would be the best candidates to begin including in my 3bet range as bluffs to exploit my opponents weakness?

i'm not really sure of this but i'm guessing two factors will be significant - pot equity and fold equity. so obviously aces are the most predominantly featured card in my opponents calling range, so having an ace in my hand increases my fold equity against 66+,AQs+,AKo and is my best blocker, followed by Kings. and the Ax hands with the most equity against that calling range are, intuitively, the suited ones!

so my first adjustment would probably be to include A2s-A6s. because there are only 4 combos each of these babies, my 3bet range is still going to be very small and i imagine i could go much further against an opponent who folds to 3bets 90% of the time before it becomes obvious i'm 3betting the shit out of them and forcing them to adjust (at the moment i'm 3betting roughly 5.7% of hands)

oh by the way, my current 3bet range has 49% equity against my opponents flatting range. given i have 90% fold equity, i think i have some more room to maneuvre.

so what hands next? i'm thinking Kxs, or perhaps 22-66 or suited connectors would be best. i'll consult stove.

in terms of actual pot equity against 66+,AQs+,AKo it seems that trashy suited kings, low pairs 22-66 and middlish SC's all have similar equity of between 27 and 30%. seeing as Kxs gives me more fold equity than 22-66, i think they would probably be the next best choice to include in a 3bet bluff range:

thus far we're at
JJ+,AK,A2s-A6s,K2s-K5s and are still only 3betting 6% of my range, which is tiny and may be able to be expanded upon still, though i still haven't dealt with a calling range yet. and i imagine i could be flatting a lot of hands profitably - suited broadways and middle pairs 77-QQ because my opponents range has so many dominated hands in it.

my 3bet range is currently weighted
JJ+,AK = 40 value combos
As2s-A6s, K2s-K5s = 36 bluff combos.

I'll leave there and now look at my calling range:
basically as best i understand it this range is hands that can certainly cold-call profitably versus opponent's range, but are not strong enough to 3bet for value.

so against that range i guess i could flat 88+,A9s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo+,Q9s+,QJo,K9s,JTo,T9s-65s.

most of these hands are "top pair" type hands whose kickers i feel are strong enough to flat with OOP. and some SC hands which can flop some equity to semi-bluff flops with or whatever.

this 3bet and flatting range combined is 18.1%, so i'm folding 100 - 18.1 = 81.9%. hmm i'm probably still being very exploited. i'm starting to think including 22-66 in 3bet range as bluffs could be an idea, as they are too weak and vulnerable to flops to just flat, and because my opponents range is so wide there is little implied odds to use them to setmine. hmm.

LAST EXAM FINISHES IN 5.25 HOURS THEN I CAN PLAY POKER AGAIN YEWWWWWWWW. hope i can still calculate pot odds n shit. been over a week.

exams are over. my goal from now until december 28 when i go to india is to improve at poker as much as possible. spent a significant chunk of my live bankroll on this trip so i will be focussing on online exclusively unless some freak accident occurs and i find a few thousand dollars to play live poker with again. unlikely.

can't remember precisely what my homework was, but my last session was on playing in/vs the blinds. basically looking to decrease the amount my opponents are able to exploit me, while looking for spots to continue exploiting them. so today i decided to form a range for myself in the BB facing a BU steal from a typical 25nl TAG reg i made up in my head and typed some shit about my thought process in forming that range. i also highlighted what i think are the major steps in the thought process of forming ranges in these spots:

hypothetical villain
15/12/3.0 (3b) taggy, positionally aware 25nl reg on stars.
34% ATS in CO
45% ATS in BU
55% ATS in SB

opens 3x on the BU


what's his range? something like (~45%):
44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q6s+,J6s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,76s,A2o+,K6 o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o,87o,76o,65o

he opens 3x in order to win 1.5, so his break-even fold frequency in a vacuum is 3/4.5=66%.

meaning to be unexploitable, i need to play 34% of hands.

assuming i have a clean(ish) image, he probably continues to a 3bet with ~10% or less:
22-QQ,AJs+,AQo+,KJs+,KQo,QTs+,JTs,T9s,76s

so he's folding 75-80% of that range to a 3bet.
and probably 4betting something like KK+ exclusively for the time being (because of our clean image)

when i 3bet, i'll be risking 11 in order to win 4.5, thus my BE fold frequency on the 3bet is ~71%

what hands can we profitably continue with vs the first range?
77+,A8s+,KTs+,ATo+,KQo (11% of hands)

what hands out of this range are strong enough to 3b for value?
AQs+,AK,QQ+
which is 36 combinations.

what % of our 3bet range do we want to be bluffs?
because our opponent is folding such an exploitably high amount, we can probably get away with 70-75% of our 3b range being bluffs, however because i'm a nit, and i'm new to thus, and i am possibly prone to spewing OOP in 3bet pots with too weak a range, i'm going to make ~66% of my range 3b bluffs.

so we're looking to have roughly 2*36 combos as bluffs.

what hands are best to include in 3bet bluff range?
i think there are three criteria here:
- fold equity (blockers to villain's continuing range)
- pot equity (ie A2s is better to include than A2o, because it flops better vs villain's continuing range)
- hands which are too weak to call profitably

i decided on:

66-22,A7s-A2s,KTs-K7s,QTs+ (78 combinations)

so our 3bet range breaks down as follows (~8% of hands):
QQ+,AQs+,AKo (38 combinations)
66-22,A7s-A2s,KTs-K7s,QTs+ (78 combinations)

so 78 / (78+38) = 0.67 * 100 = 67.2% of our 3b range is "bluffing" and 100-67.2 = 32.8% is probably stacking off

{22+,A2s+,K7s+,QTs+,ATo+} = ~15% of hands.
and our fold BB to steal is now 100%-15% = 85%

this means i'm 3betting nearly half of the time i'm continuing, which seems a lot, but i think 3betting is a pretty important part of the right strategy here because our opponent, assuming he hasn't yet adjusted, is highly susceptible to 3bets, and playing pots postflop isn't particularly enticing because we are always surrendering the positional advantage.

so i'm still being exploited like hell, but i'm being exploited less than i was when my fold BB to steal was ~10%. and once i get comfortable opening up to this degree, and probably gather some postflop reads in the process (ie cbet frequency/range, reaction to donk leads etc), if i don't think he's adjusting much/at all, i can open up even further doing things like

-adding more 3b bluffs if he's folding to resteal alot.
-adding perhaps JJ and AQo to my 3b range if he's adjusting by flatting my 3bets more
- removing some bluff combos from my 3bet range if i think he's adjusting by 4betting me more (i'd be inclined to start 4bet bluffing if i found a reg 3betting 8% from the BB. just to make him have to readjust. or just get back in his box and stop restealing)

etc etc. tbh i'd prefer to keep it at a level where he isn't forced to adjust a lot because i'm the kind of retard who always over-adjusts to people's perceived adjustments and levels the shit out of himself in the process.

anyhow, please feel free to pick apart the thought process/range size/choice of hands. might post it in the BC for higher response rate.

next time i'm going to try to figure out optimal ranges for exploiting the shit out of the 11/9, 11/10, 10/9, 10/8 and even the 9/7's who never seem to adjust, and who i swear make up the highest volume regs in my 25nl database. time to grind.

so, why aren't you more often 3-betting co opens when you have the bu? everything plus position...

fr i think you can be within 10BB/100 of breakeven from the blinds at micros
sh i think you can do even better
beyond the obvious (steal/fold 3b), c-bet is a useful stat, and so is W$WSD

also, what does your analysis lead you to think regarding opening buttons to 2.5x with your entire range vs regs in the blinds?