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spoon suggested i post up 5 example hands where i was value betting and determine what i think my opponents calling range is on each street i value bet in order to get a feel and understanding for value betting. we also discussed choosing how many/which streets we should value bet and how board textures and opponents tendencies influence this. i decided i'll post them here. i'm not saying "check out how optimal i played these hands man", i feel i played bad in at least a few of them. these are just hands in which i felt i would like to go into more analysis of my value betting tendencies than i am currently able to at the tables.
Hand 1
villain is 33/14 over 21. preflop iso may be light, but was aimed at 84/2 fish in BB who was C/C'ing down almost any piece, but miraculously folded on this occasion. and i'm pretty sure the CO was a real nit too. flop cbet was probably marginal/bad but i'm posting this for the turn and river decisions.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($28.26)
SB ($18.14)
BB ($10.37)
UTG ($23.78)
MP1 ($17.12)
Hero (MP2) ($28.33)
CO ($37.27)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7 , A
2 folds, Hero bets $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, 1 fold, BB calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.69) 4 , 6, 2 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.10, Button calls $1.10, 1 fold
Turn: ($3.89) A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
River: ($3.89) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.60, 1 fold
Total pot: $3.89 | Rake: $0.19
Preflop:
little info on this dude, though he doesn't seem an utter whale. he's definitely calling all pairs, and likely 3betting QQ+. i imagine he'd be calling most suited aces, all suited broadways, A9o+, KJo+, QTo+,JTo would be in there i imagine, and i've been finding so many villains lately at 10nl who call with any old suited shit, so i'll give him 43s-T9s, 64s-Q9s,J7s,Q8s
Range 22-QQ, A2s+,A9o+,KJo+,KTs+,QTo+,Q8s+JTo,J7s+,43s-T9s, 64s-Q9s,J7s,Q8s
Flop
i imagine he'd be calling my cbet with 22-QQ, 43s-87s, 64s-86s, he's quite possibly raising his sets, straights, and two pairs, but without knowing anything about the guy i think they can only be discounted and not compltely excluded. he may also have some floats or other weird shit in there but barring such reads i'll stick with the above range.
Turn
at the time, i felt like the ace was a scare card for a shitload of his range, and so i decided to check it with intentions of betting and having him call wider on the river (the weaker his calling range is, the higher the EV of the value bet obviously). obviously 77-JJ is now dead to two outs, but the board texture and villains range is such that it may have been better to just bet this turn because he is calling with a lot of 1 pair/gutter or other drawy type hands so i:
A- get value from them obviously
B- protect my hand and allow him to make a FTOP mistake because his implied odds aren't high enough to make it call with say:
Board: 4h 6d 2c Ac
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 79.545% 79.55% 00.00% 35 0.00 { Ad7s }
Hand 1: 20.455% 20.45% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 6h5h }
because all the river cards which give him the best hand create a pretty scary board, and so he won't be getting much value.
at the time i didnt consider near as many suited connectors in his preflop range so it seemed like he either had a set which had me crushed, or a middle pair (77-JJ) which was dead to two outs and probably folded because of da ace, but i might be able to get some value from on the river
River
i decide to try to get one street of value here, as planned, hoping that my turn check threw him off and he might look me up with hands like 77,88,99,JJ or perhaps even some of the weaker hands that missed like 65,76,86. i feel like he very rarely checks back anything stronger than one pair on the turn, so those hands can be substantially discounted or perhaps even eliminated from his river calling range, because it's rare he even has them given how the hand played. anyway i attempt to vbet the river and he folds a range of which i think was made up of mostly 77-99 and one pair/gutterball hands, or 75 or something.
Board: 4h 6d 2c Ac Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 92.105% 92.11% 00.00% 35 0.00 { Ad7s }
Hand 1: 07.895% 07.89% 00.00% 3 0.00 { JJ-77, 86s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s }
he's not going to be calling me that light all of the time, and he may be weird and somehow show up with > two pair here, but it would take a decent amount of combos of hands two pair or better that he checked back on the turn for me to have less than 50% equity against this calling range i think. even if he only calls with one possible combination each of the hands i beat in the above calling range:
Board: 4h 6d 2c Ac Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.727% 72.73% 00.00% 8 0.00 { Ad7s }
Hand 1: 27.273% 27.27% 00.00% 3 0.00 { JhJs, TT, 9h9s, 8h8s, 7h7s, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c }
if he decided to check back 64s on the turn (unlikely imo):
Board: 4h 6d 2c Ac Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.538% 61.54% 00.00% 8 0.00 { Ad7s }
Hand 1: 38.462% 38.46% 00.00% 5 0.00 { JhJs, TT, 9h9s, 8h8s, 7h7s, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 64s, 5c4c, 4c3c }
in summary, once i made top pair, i felt i had better equity versus villain's calling range on the river than i did on the turn, because checking with initiative when an ace falls is often interpreted as weakness/fear/whatever. if he's the kind of player who calls a turn bet with 77-99, i imagine he'd be the kind of guy to talk himself into calling with those hands a lot of rivers anyway. it may have been better, if i thought i could get only one street of value versus his calling range, to bet the turn because the draws still have equity on the turn, and some river cards may tighten his calling range (as the T which fell may well have done). i'm not saying i played, or thought about this hand well, i'm just saying that this is how i thought about it and played it. i'll post another shortly.
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