Quote Originally Posted by bjsaust
I think that range is way too wide, but even so, someone who'll call two barrels with that range will call 3 (except 67, missed that one). You're giving a relative unknown who you think will call 2 streets with a mediocre hand the ability to lay it down to a 3rd. That just seems unlikely if he's continued with those kinds of hands so far.
I just checked now, and indeed, something doesn't add up. If villain is competent he will not call a 2barril with something like A8o, however QQ-TT he might. He might (and he might not also) fold river with KQ/KJ. With our bet we need to have a fold from villain around 43%.

Let's put villain on range on RIVER: 66-QQ,67,89,JT,KT+. That's about 7*6 + 16 + 16 + 16 + 16*3 = 138 combinations. Of which he will fold: 67,JT,66,77,TT-QQ,KT which represnts 16 + 16 + 6 + 6 + 6*3 + 16 = 78 combinations. Which is 58% of hands he folds.
Even if you remove JJ-QQ it's 48% hands he folds.
We could also remove 89 as he might raise 2 pairs IP on FLOP, but these would represent the times he would push/bluff.

Anyway, it was fun doing these calcs
Of course this would need to be reviewed depending on villain's aggression on FLOP and RIVER.