Quote Originally Posted by Knytestorme

With hand 3, if we're putting villain on 44-TT 95% of the time then what percentage of the time are we ahead of them and what percentage are we behind to a set and does the difference make pushing in this situation +EV?

I need to get better at thinking back over the hand and recognizing standard lines, makes this hand so much easier to play....what likely hand is villain calling a pfr with and then min-raising my raise on that flop with? Simple answer is pp that has hit a set rather than AA. I think I could find a fold there to my raise and was actually considering it but decided against it for some reason, think it might have been some reverse tilt tbh.
Your second para here kinda answers your question in the first A nit taking that flop line skews his range to basically just sets so shoving is never EV (except for when you are going to spike a K on the river).