Actually, lets use hand 2 as a chance to run some numbers.

If villain 'knows' I have a flush, and he assumes he always gets the rest of my stack if he hits, then his equity:

Board: 6c Qd 5d Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.273% 77.27% 00.00% 34 0.00 { Ad9d }
Hand 1: 22.727% 22.73% 00.00% 10 0.00 { KcKh }


As played he has to call $15 into a pot of $45, but we add the other $23.5 left in his stack afterwards, so $15 to win $68.5. So he needs odds of:

15/(15+68.5) =>15/83.5 = 18%

So I did give him correct odds. To give him incorrect odds...hmm, I tried doing this mathmatically and couldnt, anyone know the formula?

Anyway, trial and error:

$20 => 20/(20+68.5) => 22.5.

So thats interesting, if I put him on exactly a set, then I need to be more than $20. What about some kind of range:

Board: 6c Qd 5d Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 91.919% 91.92% 00.00% 1092 0.00 { Ad9d }
Hand 1: 08.081% 08.08% 00.00% 96 0.00 { QQ+, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }

So if I give him the widest reasonable range then my $15 is easily enough. If he can fold TPTK:

Board: 6c Qd 5d Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 87.879% 87.88% 00.00% 696 0.00 { Ad9d }
Hand 1: 12.121% 12.12% 00.00% 96 0.00 { QQ+, KQs, KQo }

Again, $15 good. Interestingly if I take out 2P hands and only leave sets and AA:

Board: 6c Qd 5d Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 84.848% 84.85% 00.00% 336 0.00 { Ad9d }
Hand 1: 15.152% 15.15% 00.00% 60 0.00 { QQ+ }

So its really only if he calls with sets and only sets that I need to bet more. I guess it becomes a value question though. Should I actually say bet smallish to get value from all those weaker hands, or do I assume whatever I bet he only calls with sets and so need to bet larger? Say $24 or something?