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lot of good poker ideas ingested this week, though all told i think i have dropped $500 or so in the last 6 days. Regarding my operation, i have been playing with a VPIP between 35-44% during my sessions, and have gotten some big showdowns with some relatively marginal hands (my small overpair winning 150BB pot against TPTK). I don't feel like writing a ton about this yet, but i do truly feel that this is in large part due to variance. This isn't to say i am not getting outplayed in some spots, but i feel i would have better results if i wasn't losing several 50/50's, 60/40's, and a couple 75/25's for 100BB"s.
Anyways...
I am looking more closely at how i am playing in spots like the one below. Usually in this spot i would give up my hand, or try to get fancy and call on the flop intending to shove a blank turn. However, i realized that on combo draw boards like the one below it is going to be very difficult to figure out which draw villan is holding if he leads any turn (which is standard after a flop c/r). Better to try to win the pot on the flop, i figure.
Example:
Villan: ($175.50)
Hero: ($101.50)
4 other players
New to the table, but my notes on this opponent say he is a regular at 100NL 6Max and is very aggressive and a light 3better. No stats BTW b/c i am a donk and cannot figure out how to get HH's to auto import into PT on Ultimate Bet
******HOLE CARDS******
Dealt to Hero: [Ac Kd]
1 fold
Hero: raises $3.50 to $4.50
3 folds
Villan: calls $3.50
******** FLOP ********
[9h 9d 7h]
Villan: checks
Hero: bets $7
Villan: raises $12 to $19
Hero: raises $70 to $89
This is what i figured villans range to be.
9-x
8-10
8-6
xh-xh
Ah-xh
2-2 - 8-8
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
201,960 games 0.005 secs 40,392,000 games/sec
Board: 9d 9h 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.395% 44.61% 00.79% 90088 1592.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 54.605% 53.82% 00.79% 108688 1592.00 { 88, 66-22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, A9s, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ad4d, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, K9s, QhJh, QhTh, Q9s, Qh8h, JhTh, J9s, Jh8h, Jh7h, T8s+, Th7h, Th6h, 96s+, 8h7h, 86s, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, A9o, K9o, Q9o, Q5o-Q4o, J9o, J5o-J4o, T8o+, T5o-T4o, 86o }
My equity seems to only improve slightly when i hold the Ace of hearts... i would have figured the % to increase from anywhere between 5-10%. I imagine this is because many Ah-xh hands that i could win against via high card are now no longer in villans range, and because i pick up a backdoor flush draw.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
191,070 games 0.005 secs 38,214,000 games/sec
Board: 9d 9h 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.628% 48.27% 00.35% 92239 675.00 { AhKd }
Hand 1: 51.372% 51.02% 00.35% 97481 675.00 { 88, 66-22, A9s, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, K9s, QhJh, QhTh, Q9s, Qh8h, JhTh, J9s, Jh8h, Jh7h, T8s+, Th7h, Th6h, 96s+, 8h7h, 86s, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, A9o, K9o, Q9o, Q5o-Q4o, J9o, J5o-J4o, T8o+, T5o-T4o, 86o }
So, the lesson i learned here was that pushing with a nut draw against a loose and aggressive opponent is ++EV!
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
188,100 games 0.005 secs 37,620,000 games/sec
Board: 9d 9h 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.457% 63.11% 00.35% 118709 654.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 36.543% 36.20% 00.35% 68083 654.00 { 88, 66-22, A9s, K9s, QhJh, QhTh, Q9s, Qh8h, JhTh, J9s, Jh8h, Jh7h, T8s+, Th7h, Th6h, 96s+, 8h7h, 86s, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, A9o, K9o, Q9o, Q5o-Q4o, J9o, J5o-J4o, T8o+, T5o-T4o, 86o }
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I threw in some random hole cards to give villan a bluff %, and left all the 9-x hands in even though he would probably c/c the flop with them some % of the time.
This was just one aspect of poker i improved on this week. I was thinking at work today about an article that someone on FTR had stickied regarding a concept known as "G-Bucks". I had read it a few months ago and couldn't get my head around playing your hand as a range against a villan. I reread the article last night and was thinking about that as well as something i read in gabe's thread titled "any questions?"
In that thread gabe brought up a post he had read when he was moving up in stakes on 2p2 where the OP had asked whether calling or folding was best to a large river bet. durr (a HS player for those who don't know) responded, "my favorite option isn't in the poll". I had not understood that until today.
Here is the board (from gabe's thread):
A-Q-x-x-y ("x" is a paired card on the flop)
I didn't understand at first what value there would be in raising the river - after all that would obviously be spewing into a set/FH.
Then i realized:
By raising the river, villan may even lay down a low set since this board seems so unfavorable to be bluffing on that a bluff raise on the river would seem out of the question. Villan might also have a hand like A-Q and be trying to maximize value against A-K/lower aces and is planning on dumping to a raise. The fact that villan is bluffing isn't out of the question either, and by raising Hero doesn't have to show villan or the rest of the table that he figured villan was bluffing or that Hero was making a very strong play on the river without a monster. All in all raising looks like a great play, once i thought about it more. This got me to think more about which boards are goof to bluff on.
And if i am wrong please point out any errors since i don't want to feel right, but in actuality be incorrect and not find out why i am wrong.
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