250 hands, -$40.

I ran into a difficult spot with A-K preflop.

FullTiltPoker Game #2212994858: Table Laurel Ridge - $1/$2

Villan: ($197.75)
Hero: ($194)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero: [Kh Ac]
6 folds
Villan: raises to $7
Hero: raises to $22
1 fold
Villan: raises to $68
Hero: folds

I was unsure of what to do in this spot. Figuring that a villan's 4bet range was at worst A-K/Q-Q+, i folded. Was it a good fold? I decided to do an EV analysis to see if it was...

Good Fold?

Constants:
There is $92 already in the pot.
It costs me $172 to go all in.
Villan will fold A-K/Q-Q, and Y-Y(2 random cards) 100% of the time.
Villan will always call with K-K/A-A.
Villan holds K-K/A-A 60% of the time.
Villan holds A-K/Q-Q 30% of the time.
Villan holds 2 random cards 10% of the time


Villan has A-K/Q-Q (30%)

1). Villan will fold 100% of the time.
Hero bets $172, Villan folds, Result: + $90

Villan has K-K (30%)

1). Villan will win with K-K 70% of the time.
Hero bets $172, Villan calls AI. Result: -$172

2). Hero will win with A-K 30% of the time.
Hero bets $172. Villan calls AI. Result: +$262

Villan has A-A (30%)

1). Villan will win with A-A 90% of the time.
Hero bets $172, Villan calls AI. Result: -$172

2). Hero will win with A-K 10% of the time.
Hero bets $172. Villan calls AI. Result: +$262

Villan has X-X (10%)

1). Villan will fold 100% of the time
Hero bets $172, Villan folds. Result: +$90

Summary: ($90 x .3) + (-$172 x .21) + ($262 x .09) + (-$172 x .27) + ($262 x .03) + ($90 x .1)
or
($27) + (-$36.12) + ($23.58) + (-$46.48) + ($7.86) + ($9)

EV = -$15.34

lol, guess it was a nice fold.