Operation 400NL by 01/08

Villain called with A-A in the above hand and i didn't improve.


Anyway, i think it's a good shove because if his 3bet range resembles J-J/A-K and he almost always c-bets the flop, he isn't often going to have a good enough hand to call a shove on this board.

Given the board texture and because i am holding A-K, there are

6 combinations of J-J
3 combinations of Q-Q
3 combinations of K-K
3 combinations of A-A
9 combinations of A-K, suited and non suited

If he folds 15 hands of the 24 hands he bets with on the flop, he is folding over 62% of the time i go all in on the flop.

To make the calculation shorter and easier, i am going to assume that i have 0 equity when called.

I am risking 169 to win a pot of 116:

EV(push) = (116) * x + (-169)(1-x)
285x - 169 = 0
285x = 169
X = 0.59

Villain needs to fold more than 59% of the time to make bluffing profitable.

In reality, i do have around 6% equity when called by Q-Q+. And if i had a backdoor flush draw (i.e AKcc), my equity would be around 10%.

While not wildly profitable, it is +EV. However, it is so little value for such a large amount of variance that i would recommend not doing this without a lot of buy ins for the limit you are playing at. For me at 200NL, this play was probably worse than folding.


However, if villains' range in the above hand were wider, and included some suited connectors and small pairs, this would become a very profitable place to shove with Ace high since you fold out a ton of his c-bet range. Most players' with wide 3bet ranges c-bet in reraised pots too often, which is why shoving over their c-bets is a very profitable move.

Here are two overbet bluffs i ran in recent sessions. On both hands i was facing a LAGGy regular that probably percieved me as being straightforward. I'd never overbet versus either of these players.

The question is, does the overbet succeed in getting more hands to fold than a pot sized bet?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($250)
SB ($225.90)
BB ($270)
UTG ($247.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, 2.
UTG raises to $8, Hero raises to $22, 2 folds, UTG calls $14.

Flop: ($47) 4, 4, A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $29, UTG calls $29.

Turn: ($105) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($105) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $199 (All-In)


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($200)
UTG ($184.35)
MP ($231.20)
Button ($179.45)
Hero ($201)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, 6.
1 fold, MP raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $22, 1 fold, MP calls $15.

Flop: ($46) Q, J, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $29, MP calls $29.

Turn: ($104) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: ($104) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $150 (All-In)

I have not check/raise bluffed the river in 10k hands. I've only check/raised the river twice for value during this time, and both times they were small pots versus weak players.


Up about 9 buy ins in the last 9-10 days, and i think during that time i've probably ran close to expectation, though my WSD is about 2-4% lower than i would expect for my tighter style of play (currently at 48.5%).

After a review of my PT database, i noticed that i have done a lot of unintentional image creating spewing over the last 10k hands. It has costed me about 4 buy ins.

-400BB over 10,000 hands is equal to -4BB/100 to my winrate. Two of my mistakes were bad calldowns (-40BB), and three were stupid bluffs (-250BB). About a half dozen others were bet sizing mistakes, or bad flop raises/double barrels.

Another one was an AI preflop with A-Q for 100BB versus an unknown where i didn't have a lot of reads, only an intuition that the guy was tilting given the quickness of his 4bet and the fact i had just won a medium sized pot off of him. He actually had K-K, but i won the pot. Probably cost me 60BB in expectation.


I cannot believe how many dumb mistakes i made, and how much they cost me. It shows how soft 200NL actually is.


BRAG: My WSF is at 49.5% over 10k hands

i am 500VPP away from Platinum Star, and i have one more day to grind. Luckily i have nothing big going on tomorrow so im sure ill have time for 1k hands or whatever it takes to finish up.

The last few days have gone well, and i am almost +4 buy ins since my last update.


BR is at 8100. I'd like to save my FPP's for something very nice, what would you save up for? (I currently own a small TV and a laptop)

a). Plasma TV
b). 30" Monitor
c). $$$ Bonus
d). ?

both of the overbets above look good to me, esp the 1st one

get the question mark for sure. No contest.

get the plasma

i think on hand one if i had bet closer to the pot size, he is going to look me up with an Ace fairly often. I think A-x makes up pretty much his entire range, and A-x can't really call an overbet when i could plausibly have K-x.

on the second one i think most of his range is Q-x/J-x. He would definitely raise a set on the flop, and i would expect him to raise a flush as well. A smaller bet (2/3-3/4PSB) probably works as often, and i risk a lot less. Clearly i am repping a full house, which works well the times i was wrong and he had decided to play his draw passively. I haven't really made my mind up about this one yet.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

get the question mark for sure. No contest.

soooo pricey though :P


the plasma is 170k FPP, which means im at least 4 months away from getting that at my current rate. Nothing else in their store interests me besides the TV and the money. I'll have to see how much TV's cost elsewhere, because for the cost of the TV in FPP's i could almost get two $1500 bonuses!


89VPP to go...

The 400NL tables seem to mostly fill up with nitty regulars, 1-2 good regs per table, and fish later at night (after 12AM CST). I found a couple soft tables and sat down for about an hour.

My favorite hand of the night (vs. a donk)

I think versus a good player the river is a great spot for a c/r AI if they bet 1/2 pot or so.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Hero ($422.20)
Button ($412.05)
SB ($400.35)
BB ($126.75)
UTG ($453.60)
MP ($432.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with , .
2 folds, Hero raises to $16, Button calls $16, 2 folds.

Flop: ($38) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $28, Button calls $28.

Turn: ($94) (2 players)
Hero bets $72, Button calls $72.

River: ($238) (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $150, Hero calls $150.

Final Pot: $538

Results in white below:
Hero has Ah Jd (one pair, sixes).
Button has Td 9d (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins $538.

Button: "sickest call i have ever seen"
Me: "if it's a compliment, thx"
Button: "Tiltcall."


lol i hadn't been in a pot >10BB the entire time at that table.


finished up about one buy in over ~300 hands.

I made two mistakes that cost me probably a buy in worth of expectation.


1). Villain is a 1 tabler who is actually playing pretty tight but doesn't seem very good. My turn check is stupid for multiple reasons. My guess is he had A-10/A-Q.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($400)
BB ($322.35)
UTG ($120)
MP ($400)
CO ($413.60)
Button ($652.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A.
3 folds, Button raises to $16, Hero raises to $44, 1 fold, Button calls $28.

Flop: ($92) 2, T, A (2 players)
Hero bets $68, Button calls $68.

Turn: ($228) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($228) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $140, Button folds.

Final Pot: $228


2). Another A-K hand. This time my opponent is a 1 tabler who is playing loose but isn't a total donk. I have not gotten out of line at the table. The reason i hate my turn bet is because i didn't even give myself odds to call a shove. I like either shoving all in or check/folding the turn. The small turn bet was my worst option.


(converter was not working once i tried to convert this one )

POKERSTARS GAME #13635901462: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($2/$4)

Villain ($637.85 in chips)
Hero ($396 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ac Ks]
3 folds
Villain: raises $12 to $16
Hero: raises $32 to $48
1 fold
Villain: calls $32
*** FLOP *** [8c 8h 6s]
Hero: bets $69
Villain: calls $69
*** TURN *** [8c 8h 6s] [4h]
Hero: bets $119


On the upside, i have been table selecting very well and have been able to stop playing when i am not playing my best. And besides those two hands (and the one i posted in the SH Forum), i have no criticisms of how i have been playing my last couple of sessions.

I am up half a buy in at 400NL since my last update (1k hands), down 1.5 buy ins at 200NL (200 hands), and up 1 buy in at 100NL HU (50 hands).

1. I make it $48 pre. Not sure why you think you have to bet the turn, looks like you're wa/wb to me. I can't imagine he finds a call here with AQ/AT. River card sucks for you, I probably block bet $100 or maybe c/c if I think he'll bluff a J.

2. You don't want to bet/call this turn b/c you're never good if he pushes over your bet and you're drawing to six outs at best. So bet/fold if you're going to bet at all.

With that in mind, you might want to reconsider your bet sizing in 3-bet pots. I think you're choosing the worst possible c-bet size with 2/3-3/4 pot because it leaves significantly overpot left on the turn, meaning you have to overbet shove, bet under half pot, or leave yourself with ~1/3 pot behind, almost pot-committing yourself. I usually cbet 1/2 pot to a) save me money when I'm bluffing, b) induce bluffs when I have a hand and 3) leave me enough behind to bet turn and river 1/2 pot. Obviously deeper stacks changes the calculation. And on super drawy boards or vs. stations I will cbet close to pot and shove for pot on the turn. Just my two cents.

I love the 1/2 pot c-bet. Thanks for replying zook.

I took a two buy in shot at 600NL this morning as there were full stacked fish on a couple tables. I ended up down about 1.5 buy ins but i had a lot of fun and think i played as well as i would expect from myself. I had position on a LAG fish on two tables and im confident there were only two regs on both tables i sat at that were possibly/probably better than me. During the week i ended up 1 buy in at 400NL and half a buy in at 200NL HU so all in all not a terrible week.


After my session at 600NL this morning i decided to use my FPP's to get a cash bonus, in an effort to offset the losses from this morning lol.

Just out of curiosity. What is your BR management rule? I use 30x BI but although I would be rolled for $400nl I haven't taken any shots yet. Good luck pawning $400nl!

I also like to take the opportunity to thank zook for the advise of c/bets in 3-bet pots. I like it.

Ugh, moving takes forever. I've spent the last ten days moving to my new apartment. It's not remotely balla but it's "high economy" . I also didn't get cable installed until today so i ended up working a lot of extra hours at my part time job during the week.

balla: I bought a high def TV this week
not balla: 19"

Originally Posted by silu73

Just out of curiosity. What is your BR management rule? I use 30x BI but although I would be rolled for $400nl I haven't taken any shots yet. Good luck pawning $400nl!

My bankroll management is baddddd. I only had 15-16 buy ins for 600NL, and after losing about 1k there i proceed to dump a couple buy ins at 400NL. My bankroll is a little over 7.5k right now. I have decided not to play above 200NL until i reach 10k. Clearly my BR discipline needs work, and now i have another chance to show i can control myself.

moving sucks. just grind some 200nl until you get to 10k like you said, im sure your be there in no time. then move up and crush 400nl ldo. gl

First couple sessions of the week put me up about 3 buy ins. Today, i managed to relieve myself of 7 buy ins in 1.5k hands. Lucky for me i managed to laugh at almost every bad beat/cooler and i'm not convinced my overall level of play was negatively affected.


I went and reviewed all my pots that were greater than 15BB from my session today, and found only one hand i would have played differently had i known my winning percentage.


UTG was a TAG regular, not particularly good


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($235)
Button ($199)
SB ($269.80)
BB ($200)
UTG ($200)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, Q.
UTG raises to $8, Hero calls $8, 3 folds.

Flop: ($19) 6, 6, J (2 players)
UTG bets $14, Hero raises to $44, UTG raises to $82, Hero raises to $227



I only have about 14-18% equity in this pot. At the time i figured A-J to be in his range, but that only boosts my equity slightly anyway. A $145 mistake



My W$@SD was 27% and my WSF was only 39% after todays session

I only got in 6k hands this week, and finished down 10 buy ins at 200NL. BR is a little over 6k.

It looks like my operation is not going to be complete before the first of next year. It' s disappointing only because i could have worked harder than i did over the last eight months at getting better, and my own lack of effort is the only reason why im not past 200NL by now.


My goal for next year is going to be to make it to 1000NL. I'll start that thread in about a week or so.


Hope you enjoyed reading this one!

Best advice is to have 100 buy ins for stakes of 400NL and higher.
It will take alot longer to move up afcourse but it really helps.
I started playing 6 months ago and im almost rolled for 400NL with 100 buy ins so its not like its taking that long.