Really good analysis sir. Me and m2m used to talk about this kind of spot all the time where we hold AQ/AK on 994r or something and we were PFR and IP vs any villain. If we cbet, yes, we probably make him fold enough of the time to make it profitable. However, sometimes villain will play back at us with air/overs and will make us forfeit OUR equity share which sucks since we still have the best hand a decent portion of the time when he does this.

If we decide to check and take the free card, sometimes an A or K/Q will peel off and we'll get to value town worse pairs and he might decide to stab since we showed weakness and we end up netting more as a result, while simultaneously losing less because we didn't cbet and just folded to his donk on the turn when a 7 hit

Like you said, I don't think a cbet in this spot is inherently bad, it will certainly still be profitable, I'm just of the opinion that it won't be NEARLY as profitable as checking it back and taking our free card since we're ahead a ton anyways.

Keep up the good work, I read all of it.