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Ong's December blog.

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  1. #1
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    Default Ong's December blog.

    I'm going to try and go pro. I'll post regular BR updates here so you guys can either high five my success or mock my failure.

    Target is £1000 per month. December should give me a good idea if that's a reasonable expectation.

    December 1st - today my BR started at around £450 and closed at £517. I've probably played in the region of 5 hours of poker. Better success in the late evening, I assume people were drunk but chances are good that these people are just fucking stupid.

    Yesterday I relieved some dude of his £90 stack in three hands over the course of an hour. He was raising nearly everything, and calling any size raises with anything he raised or limped. I switched seats to Jesus seat him, and sat patiently waiting for hands I'm willing to play for stacks. The bingo hand he limps, I 3b shove nearly 100bb with AK spades, folds to dickhead, he calls Q5 spades. Flops misses both, turn ace and he's dead. He previously doubled me to this size stack by calling 74s vs my JJ. The first one was a looser 20bb shove with A7s, can't remember what he had but it certainly justified my shove. He got to £90 by getting ludicrously lucky against everyone else.

    Before anyone asks, I'm not telling people where I'm playing. I'm quite happy to be left alone with the fish, tyvm. Find your own cash cow!
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  2. #2
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    Today I woke up, rolled a joint, put the Dead Kennedys on loud, and shouted the lyrics to California Uber Alles, before having some tea and toast. I'm ready for the day now.

    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #3
    A few starter questions.

    1. Why are you writing a blog on a site with almost zero readership?

    2. Why is your "pro" target well below minimum wage for a 9-5 job?

    3. What was the thought process behind deciding a bankroll of £450 (which should equate to 10NL cash or £8 SnGs at the volumes you must intend to play) is even slightly reasonable for going "pro"?
  4. #4
    Sorry, one more question.

    Making two assumptions here:
    1. You play 10NL, which is roughly correct (if a little aggressive if going "pro") for your bankroll
    2. You run at 3 BB/100, a reasonably decent long term winrate for an above average player at 10NL

    Based on the above, if you 24 table or alternatively 4-table zoom, you make £4.32 per hour.

    For £1,000 per month, you'll need to put in 231 hours in the month, which is almost 60 hour weeks. Why is it more appealing to you to work 60 hour weeks for a below minimum wage salary, than take literally any job and earn more in less time?
  5. #5
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    1. Why are you writing a blog on a site with almost zero readership?
    So I can keep track of my progress, or lack of. And it's not quite zero readership. I might or might not get some conversation in here from the few regs we have left, but ultimately I just want somewhere to keep notes without talking poker in the commune.

    2. Why is your "pro" target well below minimum wage for a 9-5 job?
    It's not. I'm unskilled, best I can hope to earn is something like £16k a year, and after tax that's in the same ball park as £1k a month tax free. It helps that I'm in the UK and don't have to pay tax on my cash outs. Also, I hate working for other people. I want to be self reliant and enjoy my life.

    3. What was the thought process behind deciding a bankroll of £450 (which should equate to 10NL cash or £8 SnGs at the volumes you must intend to play) is even slightly reasonable for going "pro"?
    First of all, your assumption of 10nl is wrong. I'm playing 50nl 10bb short stack games. You would be correct to assume that I am strictly speaking insufficiently bankrolled for the stakes, but here's my thought process... A week ago, I had £50 in my account. I was watching these games that I now play, seeing how bad they were, and knew I could make money. So I thought, what's £50? If I lose it, it's not going to be the difference between eating and not. But, if I run at least average to begin with, I should do ok. So over the next four days, I won £400. Now I understand that 4 days of poker is not enough to "go pro", hence me using the word "try". But I also strongly believe that what makes or breaks my success is basically dodging particularly bad luck for the first few months as I build my bankroll.

    I've seen enough at my stakes to know I can make money, and I can afford to lose what I have. So December I intend to grind it out and at the end of the month, decide if I really can go pro.

    2. You run at 3 BB/100, a reasonably decent long term winrate for an above average player at 10NL
    I have no idea what my bb winrate is per 100 hands, but it's a lot more than 3bb per 100 hands.
    I'm playing anything between 1 and 4 tables. I've played probably five hours of poker a day for five days to earn around £500, so let's break that down. That works out of £20 an hour, that's 40bb.

    So based on these figures, you can see why I'm going for it. The worst case scenario is I go bust, which doesn't change my life for the worse.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  6. #6
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    My BR plan is something like this...
    £500 minimum
    At the end of January, cash out 75% of anything over £500.
    End of Feb, cash out 75% of anything over £600.
    Repeat every month (£700, then £800 etc) until BR = £1500.
    Now cash out 100% of anything over £1500.

    The minimum I can survive off is £600 a month, and that's tight. The most I need is £1000, anything above that is a luxury and I'll probably build my roll faster rather than cash out more. I'll also be running an ebay business to top up my income. I'll also keep doing my one day a week at Oxfam, as it will help me if I go bust and need a job.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 12-02-2018 at 11:00 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    So I can keep track of my progress, or lack of. And it's not quite zero readership. I might or might not get some conversation in here from the few regs we have left, but ultimately I just want somewhere to keep notes without talking poker in the commune.
    Fair.


    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    It's not. I'm unskilled, best I can hope to earn is something like £16k a year, and after tax that's in the same ball park as £1k a month tax free. It helps that I'm in the UK and don't have to pay tax on my cash outs. Also, I hate working for other people. I want to be self reliant and enjoy my life.
    £16k = £1,200 per month after tax. And you work 80 hours less per month for it.


    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    First of all, your assumption of 10nl is wrong. I'm playing 50nl 10bb short stack games. You would be correct to assume that I am strictly speaking insufficiently bankrolled for the stakes, but here's my thought process... A week ago, I had £50 in my account. I was watching these games that I now play, seeing how bad they were, and knew I could make money. So I thought, what's £50? If I lose it, it's not going to be the difference between eating and not. But, if I run at least average to begin with, I should do ok. So over the next four days, I won £400. Now I understand that 4 days of poker is not enough to "go pro", hence me using the word "try". But I also strongly believe that what makes or breaks my success is basically dodging particularly bad luck for the first few months as I build my bankroll.
    On this basis, you are not "going pro" - you are taking quite a wild stab at something. Your risk of ruin is obviously extremely high shortstacking 50NL with £450 behind, which strangely you seem to realise. "Going pro" is to start a career in your chosen field.... this is not starting a career, it's practically a novelty challenge.


    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I have no idea what my bb winrate is per 100 hands, but it's a lot more than 3bb per 100 hands.
    I'm playing anything between 1 and 4 tables. I've played probably five hours of poker a day for five days to earn around £500, so let's break that down. That works out of £20 an hour, that's 40bb.
    25 hours of 4 tabling means you've played about 6,000 hands (probably less since you mention you're not always 4 tabling). Sounds like you're running really well too, but doesn't need saying that this is not a sample size worth discussing anything about at all. As a long term venture, you can probably expect your winrate shortstacking 50NL to level out at about 1 BB/100 if you're a decent enough poker player (lower than my first post as both playing a harder game and shortstacking will vastly increase your variance and decrease your winrate).

    I'm not being an arsehole for the sake of being an arsehole, I'm just trying to give some perspective. I think you're only using the term "going pro" because it sounds cool, and not because you actually are. You're taking a shot with a small bankroll in a high variance game to which you are adding extra variance by shortstacking. Anyone who knows anything about the maths behind poker will tell you that you are going to go bust.

    Play within your bankroll limits, don't shortstack, get a job, and then maybe as you organically move up through the limits you could consider jacking the job in if it ever becomes justifiable to.
    Last edited by dwarfman2; 12-02-2018 at 10:59 AM.
  8. #8
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    £16k = £1,200 per month after tax. And you work 80 hours less per month for it.
    I'm not playing 120 hours of poker a week. I'm playing 30 ish.

    Your risk of ruin is obviously extremely high shortstacking 50NL with £450 behind, which strangely you seem to realise. "Going pro" is to start a career in your chosen field.... this is not starting a career, it's practically a novelty challenge.
    Just to be clear, everyone is shortstacking. The max BI is 10bb, which just encourages people to go nuts. And I did emphasise the word "try". I'll decide if I really am pro at the end of the month when I analyse my performance and winrate.

    Sounds like you're running really well too, but doesn't need saying that this is not a sample size worth discussing anything about at all
    I feel like I'm running average, but that's a feeling rather than based on any actual analysis. But yes, sample size is obviously ludicrously small. I can only change that by playing.

    As a long term venture, you can probably expect your winrate shortstacking 50NL to level out at about 1 BB/100
    I think you are underestimating just how badly people are playing.

    I'm not being an arsehole for the sake of being an arsehole,
    You're not being an arsehole.

    I think you're only using the term "going pro" because it sounds cool, and not because you actually are.
    I'm being honest with my intentions. I want to make a living playing poker, and I think it's possible. So I'm completely sincere that I intend to "go pro".

    You're taking a shot with a small bankroll in a high variance game to which you are adding extra variance by shortstacking.
    See above about shortstacking. It's not a ratholing tactic that I am employing against full stackers. That would be a terrible strategy for going pro, so I can totally understand why you're all "wtf is this guy thinking?".
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #9
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    Play within your bankroll limits, don't shortstack, get a job, and then maybe as you organically move up through the limits you could consider jacking the job in if it ever becomes justifiable to.
    I fired up a fiver on this site three months ago. It took that long to grind to £50. How much longer can I keep playing that kind of poker for? I don't play it for fun.

    This is it for me. If I can't win at these stakes, against these people, then all I can ever do is play poker for fun.

    I don't want a job. I'm nearly 40 years old, I am not working for Amazon picking and packing orders until I die.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  10. #10
    midlife crisis
    Opportunities knock
    was really just the pizza man
  11. #11
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    To give you an idea how bad the players are, I've seen at least two people in my five days buy in for the minimum 3bb stack, then proceed to limp/fold vs a raise. I nearly choked on my tea the first time I saw it.

    There are regs, and they have usually built up a £30+ stack before they leave. I take note of those who are apparently profitable, and play tighter against them than I do against the morons who are donating.

    I think your assumed winrate of 3bb/100 would be about right if I were playing solely against regs. I'm totally reliant for my massive winrate on the relentless stream of recreational players who are burning £50 a session.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Savy View Post
    midlife crisis
    Yep.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I'm not playing 120 hours of poker a week. I'm playing 30 ish.
    Let's suppose you can crush the game you're playing at 5 BB/100, which the way you've described it I'm really not sure anyone can. Yes the standard sounds poor, but it sounds like it's a crapshoot by design which is really going to hinder the long term winrate of the best player in the world, no matter how you've been running for the last few days. 5 BB/100 in my mind is a fairly devastating winrate for the game as you've described it.

    So, supposing you run at 5 BB/100 playing 4 tables for 30 hours a week (supposing each table plays at 60 hands per hour). Not taking into account variance in either direction (which is not realistic, because a moderate downswing will bust you), you would in the long run make an average of £720 per month at this stake. You could live in squalor on that I guess, but really the situation you are in is not viable to do full time - it just isn't.

    EDIT: Got my sums wrong and have amended!
    Last edited by dwarfman2; 12-02-2018 at 12:12 PM.
  14. #14
    I don't know why you think these are some secret games it's either whatever stupid shit they've been doing on 888 or whatever it was for ages or similar. You are just running silly hot, the rake in those games was absolutely dreadful and even against absolute window lickers large winrates just aren't possible. It is also incredibly obvious there is no room to move up or get a higher hourly.

    So you basically scrape a living with your massively overoptimistic predictions and as soon as anything bad happens you bust.

    I don't know why you don't just play live for a living. Standard is lol and you don't really need a bankroll to start just shot take when you save up a couple of hundred quid.
    Opportunities knock
    was really just the pizza man
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Savy View Post
    the rake in those games was absolutely dreadful.
    This is also a really big factor. If it's the particular game/site I'm thinking of, the rake is higher than average.
  16. #16
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    Yes the standard sounds poor, but it sounds like it's a crapshoot by design which is really going to hinder the long term winrate of the best player in the world, no matter how you've been running for the last few days.
    Let me see if I can help you understand why I think you're wrong.

    I'm essentially rolling a dice over and over again, losing to a 1 and 2, and winning to a 3+. That's how good I am on average when stacks go in. Negative variance isn't fucking me anywhere near as much as it fucks the average villain. If I'm only winning 50% of the time, I'm running pretty bad while breaking even. If I'm actually losing money, I'm running like shit.

    I should go through waves of running good, running average, running bad. When I run good, I'm absolutely crushing it. That's why I've won nearly £500 in five days. I'm not running that good, I'm losing a lot when I get it in good. Today so far I'm down to £483 while playing seemingly very well. So running like shit costs me £30, while running like a god earns me a lot more.

    You can't live on that and therefore the situation you are in is not viable to do full time - it just isn't.
    I can't live on £180, no, not even topped up with ebay. So if that truly does level out to my winrate, then I'm not going pro. Time will tell.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Savy View Post
    I don't know why you don't just play live for a living. Standard is lol and you don't really need a bankroll to start just shot take when you save up a couple of hundred quid.
    I live in the middle of butt fuck nowhere and I don't drive. I played once at Brighton while on holiday, crushed it in ev while walking out £100 down. I know I can win at casinos, but when I got my AA busted aipf vs KQo, I had to leave, because I wanted to insult the guy. I don't think I can handle tilt live.

    I don't know why you think these are some secret games
    I hope these games are widespread, really I do. But I haven't seen anything like it before, so forgive my reluctance to encourage fellow sharks to sit in with me.

    You are just running silly hot,
    I don't think so. I'm just not running really, really bad.

    even against absolute window lickers large winrates just aren't possible.
    Tell me this at the end of the month.

    So you basically scrape a living with your massively overoptimistic predictions and as soon as anything bad happens you bust.
    Maybe. A risk I'm willing to take.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  18. #18
    OK, well it sounds like you're fairly set on it - good luck!

    The reason I came back after a lengthy absence to post here is because I see so much of myself 10 years ago in this plan. I decided to "go pro", admittedly with much more conservative bankroll management, back in '08 when the online poker landscape was much more conducive to being able to do so. I absolutely underestimated what I was getting into, the downswings at any game when you play at the volume you need to in order to make a living wage are severe. Combine that with the fact that you're cashing out to pay yourself a salary every month, and it becomes incredibly hard to manage for even a short while without an incredibly robust bankroll and a mental toughness that 99% of people do not have.
  19. #19
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    Rake is 5%, I'm due £40 rakeback bonus tomorrow (weekly expectation at my volume), while I'm also possibly in the running for a monthly 10% rakeback bonus. That won't be insignificant.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  20. #20
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    OK, well it sounds like you're fairly set on it - good luck!
    Yeah I mean unless someone can give me a better idea what to do with my £500 I currently have online, then I'm going for it.

    The reason I came back after a lengthy absence to post here is because I see so much of myself 10 years ago in this plan.
    I did suspect an element of this. I know I'm not the first to run short rolled at high stakes with big ambitions, and I also know that probably well over 90% of those who do take this risk lose it all.

    This isn't the first time I've tried to go pro. Ten years ago, I was grinding $25nl with a $1k roll, and while I was proftable for a while, it was never a regular income and eventually my cash outs hurt my roll to the point of no return. What I'm experiencing right now is a different level altogether. I've earned in one week what I was earning in a month at my previous poker peak. That's twice as much as I need to go pro, so even if I am running ridiculously good, there's plenty of wiggle room.

    I don't really have anything to lose, aside from what is currently a small mount of money that is not going to change my life for the better sat in my bank. So fuck it.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  21. #21
    5% with no cap and basically every hand goes postflop so you always pay rake is really awful.

    It's stupid and a waste of yourself but gl. I'd nit it up with real life expenses and paying yourself for a couple of months just to ease the pressure on finances as much as possible. I'd also look at using some of the money you do make to try and start up some other avenues of income.

    Looking forward to some graphs/hands.
    Opportunities knock
    was really just the pizza man
  22. #22
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    Sorry rake is capped at £1.80.

    I do intend to reinvest my money if this goes well. I hope to expand my ebay activity, that will be much easier if I have regular cashouts from poker.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Sorry rake is capped at £1.80.
    Just because they say there is a cap doesn't mean it isn't essentially uncapped. 20bb at 5% is $0.50, not even close to touching the cap.
    Opportunities knock
    was really just the pizza man
  24. #24
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    Well I'm beating the rake right now, so zero fucks given really. I get £160 back a month at least, that's without qualifying for the extra 10% monthly.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  25. #25
    Tried out the 20nl version of the game you mentioned and every single player is a disaster. Highly likely you can beat the game for 10bb per table, per hour (and that's being conservative). Not a huge amount of tables running though.

    If you get bored of these games and have the roll, you can likely beat mtts up to $11 for $15 hourly.

    PS: will be obvious if I'm at your table from my screen name.
    Last edited by The Bean Counter; 12-02-2018 at 04:46 PM.
  26. #26
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    I see you. Yes you've found my secret site!
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  27. #27
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    Can you see the waiting list? I'm #2
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  28. #28
    I can see you. Seriously, what are these people doing? I've seen some sitting with 3bb and limp folding.
  29. #29
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    bean crushing the 20nl tables already
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bean Counter View Post
    I can see you. Seriously, what are these people doing? I've seen some sitting with 3bb and limp folding.
    Now you see why I have such a hard on.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  31. #31
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    If you get bored of these games and have the roll, you can likely beat mtts up to $11 for $15 hourly.
    I can definitely beat these stakes, not sure about the hourly but the problem really is the long wait between big cashes. Good chance that I'll play MTTs on stars from time to time, but they won't be my staple.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  32. #32
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    Dec 2nd closing BR £505

    Ran like shit today, despite playing mostly well, damage minimal. Satisfied.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  33. #33
    Graph of your play so far?
    Opportunities knock
    was really just the pizza man
  34. #34
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    Spoiler alert... I can't use tracking on this site. I don't even think I can d/l my hand history, I can only see a list of 500 hands, and can only refine my search to as early as September 2018. So doesn't look like I can do graphs, while HHs will be a pain.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  35. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  36. #36
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    4th Dec £603
    Only played an hour of poker today.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  37. #37
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    Didn't play much poker yesterday, either. Closed £624.

    One hand...

    UTG (£30) minraises to £1
    folds to hero (£20) on BU, hero has AKs
    hero goes all in
    blinds fold
    UTG calls, shows K8o

    flop 8xx etc

    Note on UTG -
    fishy as fuck, l/c KTo vs 30bb 3b shove

    15 minutes later, he was broke. Sadly it was everyone else who got my money, I won a fiver back next hand with AA against his AT but other than that all I could do was sit and watch.

    Still, got fucked in a short session for a large pot, and still walked away in profit thanks to my other tables.

    Time for breakfast, then I'm making up for lost time. Two days busy, now I have four days with a clear calendar.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  38. #38
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    soaking up ethanol, moving on up
    sounds like fun, best of luck!
  39. #39
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    Cheers. Yesterday was fun. Swingy as FUCK. At one point I was down to around £515, closed at £625. Insane.

    One crazy hand... (stack sizes are rough)
    UTG folds
    HJ (£20) - opens to £1.50
    CO (£40) - calls
    BU folds
    SB (£50) - calls
    Hero (£20) is BB with AJs

    Every single played has a note on them, they're stacking any suited ace for sure, lots of unsuited aces, broadway, pairs, my pre flop decision is ridiculously easy.

    Hero goes all in.
    HJ calls and is all in, CO calls, SB calls.
    Flop rags.
    SB checks, CO goes all in, SB calls.

    HJ shows TT and is in the lead with his overpair.
    CO shows A7s and has fuck all.
    SB shows KQo and has fuck all.

    Turn J
    River K
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  40. #40
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    The guy who won that hand got up to £170. When I left the table, he had £15. He made a similar call with fuck all on Kxx flop and showed QJo. He didn't win that pot. That was the beginning of his downfall.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  41. #41
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    18,297
    Location
    England
    roll = £644

    Steady progress. Been running bad for a day or two, finally started to run good late this evening and I'm back in the right direction. Kinda want to keep playing, but it's 1am and I'm tired.

    I've just figured out how much rake I've generated so far this month for the poker site... £414. Wankers.

    However, if I make my rakeback targets, which is reasonable at my volume, I can expect to get around 20% back in the form of £40 a week and around £160 a month. So that's £300+ in rakeback alone.

    With that in mind, my bare minimum average profit needs to be in the region of £75 a week. So basically a tenner a day. That's 20bb. Fucking easy. I should have a healthy surplus, if I haven't I'm either running bad or playing bad.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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