Ok ive decided to try an EV calc on this hand. Myself and Anarchoi have discussed this and i wanna see how close/bad this play is.

Hand is;

Game #3607585023: Hold'em NL ($0.50/$1) - 2007/03/26 - 19:48:17 (UK)
Table "Jacinta" Seat 4 is the button.
Seat 1: pelaaja ($93.25 in chips)
Seat 2: housemd ($18.50 in chips)
Seat 3: fogdish ($32.50 in chips)
Seat 4: frankiolo ($76.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Festar ($117.50 in chips)
Seat 6: jurjacbos ($139.50 in chips)
Seat 7: remetzo ($80.75 in chips)
Seat 8: Orangu ($109.32 in chips)
Seat 9: DaGOAT888 ($104 in chips)
Seat 10: stan10 ($26 in chips)
Festar: posts small blind $0.50
jurjacbos: posts big blind $1
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to DaGOAT888 [Js Jc]
remetzo: folds
Orangu: folds
DaGOAT888: raises to $4
stan10: raises to $11
pelaaja: folds
housemd: folds
fogdish: folds
frankiolo: folds
Festar: folds
jurjacbos: folds
DaGOAT888: raises to $33
stan10: is all-in $15
Returned uncalled bets $7 to DaGOAT888
----- FLOP ----- [Qc 3s 9s]
----- TURN ----- [Qc 3s 9s][6s]
----- RIVER ----- [Qc 3s 9s 6s][6d]
----- SHOW DOWN -----
DaGOAT888: shows [Js Jc] (Two Pairs, Jacks and Sixes, Queen high)
stan10: shows [Ad Ah] (Two Pairs, Aces and Sixes, Queen high)
stan10 collected $51 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $53.50 Main pot $51 Rake $2.50
Board [Qc 3s 9s 6s 6d]
Seat 1: pelaaja folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: housemd folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: fogdish folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: frankiolo (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Festar (small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: jurjacbos (big blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: remetzo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Orangu folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: DaGOAT888 showed [Js Jc] and lost with Two Pairs, Jacks and Sixes, Queen high
Seat 10: stan10 showed [Ad Ah] and won ($51) with Two Pairs, Aces and Sixes, Queen high
****HAND ENDS****

If opp were to shove instead of RR then im getting laid down 1.5:1 on the call. calling another $21 into $31.50 pot ($26+$4+$1.5)

Therefore i need to win at least 33.33% to profit, right? Im a noob to this


Pokerstove says
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87,327,504 games 0.031 secs 2,817,016,258 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.745% 41.60% 01.14% 36332008 996239.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 57.255% 56.11% 01.14% 49003018 996239.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }


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So with this range im good to call. now if i tighten up opp range.......

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59,930,640 games 0.005 secs 11,986,128,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.585% 35.01% 01.57% 20984510 940916.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 63.415% 61.85% 01.57% 37064298 940916.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


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Ok so i have a much closer but still +EV situation!!!!

Now i have assumed that opp has shoved and no FE has been calc'd, admittedly I dont have much FE to work with but say if i had 10% chance that he would fold then I gain some more EV (although marginally more).

BTW its a fold if he has QQ+ of course....................

---
30,821,472 games 0.005 secs 6,164,294,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.450% 18.24% 00.21% 5620692 65832.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 81.550% 81.34% 00.21% 25069116 65832.00 { QQ+ }


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Hows that guys? I know if i put more thought into it i can incl FE in my calc at 10% but i dont need to since i have my answer to this hand.

Conclusion: SHOVE IT