Changing tactics : My Live Poker Blog

Originally Posted by LuckySlevin

Jyms, thanks for reading and offering your advice. My belief is that variance is far less live than online, due to the greater edge a decent player has over the field so that's factored into my plan of action. I don't believe br will be an issue for me with this, but I will be the first to admit it is if it comes to that in this op!

I don't disagree with you that variance in general could be less live than online. Players are less aggro, and in general the games will be less variance. The players are worse, so in general that should be less variance.

But what you need to account for is the duration of a bad run in live and how much longer they last. A reasonable bad run can last upwards of 50k-100k hands. I have no clue how many hands are dealt per hour in live games? Someone wanna do the math in terms of how many months on LuckySlevin's schedule a bad run could theoretically last?

If I assume 30 hands per hour, and the low end of a conceivable bad streak at 50k hands.

176 hours per month -> 5280 hands per month
50k hand bad variance / 5280 -> 9.5 months.

I don't get why you just don't work on your game from like 2 or 5nl upward and take things slowly.

You have like zero patience and you drastically over estimate you own skills.

Once you've got through the 5nl-100nl stage, then you can start thinking about playing live. It will be much much softer than 100nl online and you'll have a decent grip of what a well rounded strategy is.

When you cant beat 5nl online, although live games are pretty soft, I'm not 100% sure that you can beat a £200nl live game.

Originally Posted by Muzzard

I don't get why you just don't work on your game from like 2 or 5nl upward and take things slowly.

Because that would make too much f'ing sense.

Well that was quick.