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 Originally Posted by griffey24
Thanks Salsa!
There are a few reasons I'm not just quitting my job and full time grinding live.
1. Online poker has made me VERY skeptical overall, as it becomes clear to most grinders that variance is a b*tch. I'm very skeptical to the sustainability of this winrate. Most live grinders I hear talking about winrates mention needing to grind for like 5000 hours at least. I'm definitely nowhere near to this, and it's not unreasonable. 5000 hours would equate to about 250k hands, which is a decent sample.
I DO think however that given the skill level in this game (1000x easier than my online 1/2 and 2/4 games) that the overall variance should be lower. The games are also less aggressive which should reduce the variance. I'm 1 tabling instead of 10 tabling, which should increase my focus / help me make better decisions / play better, which should also reduce the variance.
So while $200/hr may not be sustainable, I think I can confidently say that a ballpark of $130/hour should be.
2. I question the longevity of these games. Or at least the ease of them. 6-8 yrs ago this was how online poker was. Anyone decent was printing money, and no one could have predicted the swift collapse to the state of the games today. I don't think it's a good long term decision to drop a full time job for poker at this point. You never know how games will be 5 yrs from now.
3. I just couldn't do it. I go once a week and I get bored / tired of playing after 4-5 hours. And this is when I'm playing well and doing well and I still can't motivate to play longer. I can't imagine grinding 40 hours a week, and i give credit to those that do. It's mentally draining!
Also day job that pays $400/day is pretty sweet! I'd assume with that pay you can probably manage to start up a roll at some point in the future if you wanted?
Thanks for posting!
Hi Griffey
I have a roll, but due to the circumstance of being in Australia where there are no reasonable venues to play, I am currently gambling on the stock market.
$400/day is nice considering my job is pretty chilled out. I have a long term girlfriend making similar and we have our residence paid off and no kids, so we are OK but not rich.
Ideally I would work 3 days a week and spend 2 days playing live poker making $100/hr no tax.
sidetrack:
2 hands I had last night playing 1/1 [a home game that runs once a month and I'm up about $1000 over 6 sessions, it's a friendly social event with tech start up people]
effective stacks with villain is $220
My image is aggro (for the game - in reality I've been card dead)
I'm in CO with As Ks
UTG limp, HJ limp, I raise to $10, button call, limpers call, pot = $42
Flop
Kd 9h 6d
Checked to me, I bet $30, fold to villain in HJ who calls, pot = $102
history with HJ is on one hand he called all in for about $80 with Q8, T962 3 diamonds board with a double gutshot, I had KT with Kd and he hits non diamond queen on the river to double up, on another hand I have JJ, raise preflop, hit a top set and he check calls my 3 barrel with a pair and straight draw and got stacked.
Turn
Qh
I bet $100, villain shoves his $180, I call $80
A second hand
Ad Kd on the button
2 limp, I raise to $10, blinds and 1 limper folds, UTG+2 calls [effective stack $250], pot = $23
flop KTT rainbow
UTG+2 bets $10, I call
turn low brick
UTG+2 bets $20, I call, pot = $83
river low brick
UTG+2 bets $50, I call
Read on UTG+2 = regular to the home game. Loose passive pre flop, loose aggressive post flop. Bluffs some of the time. Normally air is not part of his donk-leading range. Has sat down for half and hour and hit hands to go from $100 to $250.
Any comment?
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