2013: Make or break

Would it not be a good idea to do some research into variance over different sample sizes and then when you implement a new plan do it until you see that statistically it isn't working and then attempt to revamp it? Or even if it is working look at how it could be improved.

It's always better to have an idea in terms of numbers than time imo.

Just wanted to give an update.

Last month ended up pretty brutal! Was down $6.5k, with a variance beat down combined with not the greatest play.

My avoidable losses were still there, but less than January, so that's some improvement at least.

March up till yesterday afternoon was going amazingly well. I was playing probably the best I had played in years, was up around $7k for month as of yesterday morning.

Though yesterday evening I hit a huge rush of bad variance (I lost quads to a rivered straight flush!), and lost about $3.3k in 3 hours or so. One thing that became very clear to me is that when I start getting hit by variance, I start being much more willing to play a high variance game (probably in an attempt to get back to even for the session? which is clearly dumb). A high variance game which I generally avoided for the first 10 days of the month.

I think I get stuck, and start wondering how everyone can keep having hands. Suddenly I 3b 99 and get cold 4b by an aggro (a spot where I'm fine folding usually), and in the midst of the run bad I jam this instead. I squeeze AJss, and ship over a 4b instead of folding vs a spazz reg. These are all close'ish spots, that when playing solid I fold, but when losing I jam.

Suddenly instead of being down $1400ish in coolers, I'm down $3300ish in coolers and high variance unnecessary spots.

I'm still in a good spot for the month right now, up $3.8k and putting in decent volume. I need to keep a very close eye on spots like this going forward and making a concerted effort in avoiding high variance plays.

Winnings January: $200
Avoidable Losses Jan: $5,500

Winnings February: -$6,500
Avoidable Losses Feb: $4,500

Winnings March: $3,800
Avoidable Losses March: $1,100

I'm going to try and look at how many hands I played per month, it's prob more useful showing avoidable losses in terms of winrate (loss rate), to actually see if there's an improvement), since my number of hands per month is fluctuating.