2013: Make or break

39- Fold pre?
40- Isn't this a close turn fold? You should stove a really tight range here and see what it gives, but pretty sure folding is best. I think he has all sets, KJs, AQss, 88, QJs.
41- Clear clear jam pre. I check river usually but I like your play, puts him in a tough spot with 95% of his range.

Some Bluffs and Bluff catching anyone?

Hand 42)
-villain was aggro and spewy type that likes to make plays
-villain was 3betting around 12 and being very aggro
-Why the re-bluff:
1) I feel like this kind of "making plays" villain thinks he can rep strong here
2) Such a high 3bet, he's rarely showing up with strong Q's here like AQ/KQ even if he has a Q, and he might not necessarily always c/r QJ or worse Q's
3) I block the nut FD so if he has a lower FDs he won't love being 3b here

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($354) 89bb
UTG+1 ($1,223.05) 306bb
CO ($402.50) 101bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($388) 97bb
SB ($440.30) 110bb
BB ($463) 116bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BTN
3 folds, griffey24 raises to $10, 1 fold, BB calls $6

Flop: ($22, 2 players)
BB checks, griffey24 bets $16, BB raises to $48, griffey24 raises to $80


Hand 43)
-villain is meh reg, who calls lots of flops
Why bluff:
-because my range is much stronger than villains, and in my experience regs seem to fold here
-if I'm in villains shoes I'm certainly folding a ton here

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
griffey24 (CO) ($365.35) 183bb
BTN ($477.15) 239bb
SB ($201) 101bb
BB ($168.35) 84bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 4 players) griffey24 is CO
griffey24 raises to $6, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $10, BTN calls $10

Turn: ($35, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $18, griffey24 raises to $70

Hand 44)
Bluff catching?
-Villain opens wide EP, and generally cbets pretty high
-on the river as per my "calling big bets" conditions earlier in the blog:
-Do they expect me to fold? YES
-Can their range be strong? Meh, he probably thinks yes
-Can my range be strong? No - not after turn check back
-Should he expect me to bet? Not really - so c/r doesn't make much sense
-Moreso: after he c/r the flop he gets to river with a very wide range of hands that won't really want to c/c, so will either c/f or c/r

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($316) 158bb
CO ($200) 100bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($200) 100bb
SB ($301.20) 151bb
BB ($484.45) 242bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) griffey24 is BTN
1 fold, CO raises to $5, griffey24 calls $5, 2 folds

Flop: ($13, 2 players)
CO checks, griffey24 bets $10, CO calls $10

Turn: ($33, 2 players)
CO checks, griffey24 checks

River: ($33, 2 players)
CO checks, griffey24 bets $16, CO raises to $50, griffey24 calls $34?

Small 3betting In Position

The other day I played a session and the reg that had position on me on several tables was rampant 3betting my $12 opens to $28 IP. I usually fold a ton of 3bets, but the price was too good and I was calling with a huge part of my opening range (which is quasi tight to begin with from MP, on avg prob 20%).

By the end of the session I had gotten owned by him several times, which had me thinking about doing this more often.

I looked into more of his stats and realized that over 2k hands he had 1-2% cold call on MP/CO and 0% cold call on the button! This is taking "3b or fold" to the extreme, but is an interesting concept.

I have tried something similar in the past and my huge problem was 3betting with quality hands (KQs, KJs, QJs, AJs, 99 etc) that are very playable, but that also don't love 4bets. The end result was peeling too many 4b IP.

I will try playing around with this style over my next few sessions and see how it goes.

My concerns with this strategy are:

1) Temptation to peel too many 4b with playable hands IP
2) Sizing inducing more 4bets
3) Inducing more cold 4bets
4) Giving good set hunting odds, and not being able to fold overpairs postflop.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

This month is going off the rails a bit. The last several sessions have been bruuuutal for variance. Not all in EV but just the hands that I'm losing at showdown. It's one of those frustrating stretches where I feel like I'm hitting a set every hand but also not winning.

Played a monster grind today, 6k hands. My biggest grind in ages, though I was down $2k. I did try to implement my small 3betting though which was pretty fun, and clearly frustrated ppl at times, though also got me into a lot of dumb spots.

I will try this 3betting small IP a few more sessions to see how it goes. One note is definitely not to peel 4bets, even if I induce more of them.

Winnings on the month: -$3900
Avoidable losses on the month: $3000

Winnings on the year: $-3700
Avoidable losses on the year: $8500

I was reading an article the other day about the blue jays, and specifically their centre fielder Colby Rasmus. I couldn't help but associate a lot of what was being said to my poker career. This is an excerpt from the beginning of the article:

"The days of Colby Rasmus constantly changing his mechanics at the plate have hopefully come to an end. That's the goal for Toronto's center fielder and the coaching staff as they aim to find a consistent approach that can be maintained throughout a 162-game schedule.
Rasmus has been known in the past for making rather frequent adjustments when things aren't going well, but this year, the club is looking to uphold a different philosophy.
"The talent in him is unbelievable," hitting coach Chad Mottola said. "The things he does, the way he gets to the front of the box, and we're just going to get his quick hands to work in his favor rather than going through swing changes all year.
"We modified [his approach] a little bit, but it's one of those things where as time goes on, we hope we're not going to see five different stances after an 0-for-4. We're trying to get a consistent base and then we're going to stay there."


I think I'm DEFINITELY guilty of what has plagued Rasmus in the past. He goes through a rough patch and tries tweaking things, changing things, when his approach may still be good and he may just be falling a victim to short term variance.

Over the course of January / Feb alone I can list all the different strategies I've tried implementing as things haven't entirely been going well:
1) Attempting to minimize cold calling, 3b or folding IP (result: got 4b a ton and started 3b/folding too much)
2) 3betting small IP to encourage more calls, as opposed to 4bets, when my 3b range was wide but balanced (this worked ok, definitely got more calls but was giving good set odds and my big pairs were getting stacked. Also encouraged cold 4bets)
3) flatting more out of the blinds (was folding too much, resulting in a poor blinds winrate)
4) realizing that flatting out of the blinds was not working well, and 3betting more out of the blinds instead, to up the VPIP but also maintain aggression (Result - putting myself in tough spots with second best hands that were too strong to fold, ie: QT on T53 vs AT, AT on KTxhh mega draw heavy board)
5) stronger focus on blind stealing, and adjusting my open sizes on who was in the blinds to increase the likelihood of a fold (ie: SB/BB have fold to steals around 75-80% so I min raise open, BB has fold to steal of around 60% so I open 2.5x of 3x)

I AM ALL OVER THE FREAKING BOARD!

I go into a session with a plan, have a bad session and re-vamp the plan. This may not be horrible, as it keeps people guessing and certainly whatever pre-conceived notions ppl have of my play based on stats won't be accurate. But at the same time, I really need to find a good solid strategy and stick with it for my own good.

Going forward on the year, here are my poker vows that I need to stick by for at least some semblance of a sample size (even if it's just one month straight):

1. Maintain focus on blind stealing (adjust open sizes where needed, fold more when steal looks unlikely)
2. 3b or fold IP within the constraints of dynamic. (3b light IP to build dynamic, but once he's likely to 4b, fold hands if cold calling is not profitable)
3. 3b wider in blinds vs LP stealers who FOLD to 3bets. 3b solid range vs. rampant callers, or be willing to c/f more bricked flops when called.
4. Maintain focus on positional play (folding EP, ramping up towards Btn)
5. Fold WAY EARLIER, where possible. If my range has other stronger hands in it, then be much more willing to fold. (ie: Calling down KKKAx board with 88 is unnecessary when my range has Kx, lots of Ax, and bigger pairs than 88)