|
PREFLOP.
I like your PFR. Just the right size. I don't like everyone calling. This causes two bad things to happen. First, it makes it more likely that someone will hit a very strong hand (set, random two pair, etc). Second, it means that if we decide to make a normal sized CB....2/3 p, we will be building a very big pot. When the pots and bets get bigger we want to take a little extra time to think things thru. We will also be playing in a much more straightforward way.
FLOP.....Ac Qd Jc
We like the A we don't like the Q, we don't like the J and we don't like the flush draw. We are now behind and drawing very thing to AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ, KT, even QJ has us beat. At the same time there are lots of drawing hands and our opps are getting just about the right odds/implied odds to call with a wide variety of hands (e.g., pair + gutshot , flush draw, pair + BDFD, lots of complex draws). We could easily be up against a hand like KQc or KJc.
I like your bet on the flop, I think this is nearly perfect balance of making the draws pay but not over committing with just a pair. You get two callers. WOW, thats not good I really would have like to win the pot right there. With 2 callers I think there is close to a 50/50 chance we are beat right now.
We do not want to see a club, a K, a Q, or a J. An A or a T would be good cards...especially a non club T. An A would be a good but not a great card as it could fill up one our opps (AJ, AQ). As a side note our BDFD is to the nuts as the Ac is already out. If we see a club we will check hoping that we can get the right odds to make call. Same with a K.
Going into the turn we are cautiously optimistic at the same time we know we could be beat and we will fold to a monster all in. And again this is a very big pot, we really want to take our time and think thru decisions -- no autopilot!
TURN......5s
Should be a brick. Nothing has changed from the flop except that we now know we have two players who like their hands enough to call a pretty sizable flop bet. OTOH, we also know that players are very loose at this levels AND there are a bunch of potential draws out. We have a tricky hand. As a side note our flush draw is now out of the money. I like betting exactly the same amount we bet last time. At the same time I think you could make a good case for checking as the risk of giving a free card and risk that we are beat are fairly close to even. I do NOT like making a monster move here, you still have about 100 BB left. If either opp, both of whom have us covered, go all in...we have to fold.
|