You all know what to do, right?

Flushed boards, we see them every day. No big deal. I just wanna throw this out and get some different opinions on it. I'll alter different elements of the hand as we go along. If anyone replies that is.


100NL, Loosish kinda fishy table. Everyone has $100 stacks.
You're dealt A A UTG.

You raise to $5. Standard raise for this table.
2 callers in late position. Neither guy has done much out of line that you've noticed.

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Pot is $15
The flop comes 2 6 J

You bet $10. This is your standard flop line.

One fold and the other guy calls. The caller is a regular loose/passive. More calling station then anything else.

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Pot is $35
Turn is 4


What is the optimum move for me here?

Either bet out again or maybe check/raise if you think it will force him to bet, fold if you get raised again and try and look for a really cheap showdown if he calls the check/raise. He probably doesnt have the flush but dont rule it out.

Originally Posted by Pelion

Either bet out again or maybe check/raise if you think it will force him to bet, fold if you get raised again and try and look for a really cheap showdown if he calls the check/raise.

I dont really like giving the possibility of a freecard without the A. I bet standard 2/3 value turn bet and fold to a raise. You're likely beaten if villian raises you here without much hope of catching back up.

PK

There is no optimal line against all opponents. Very opponent dependent spot.

Originally Posted by poskid_1982

I dont really like giving the possibility of a freecard without the A. I bet standard 2/3 value turn bet and fold to a raise. You're likely beaten if villian raises you here without much hope of catching back up.

I would only check if i *know* he will bet at weakness.

Originally Posted by Fnord

There is no optimal line against all opponents. Very opponent dependent spot.

Ok then, lets roughly define an opponent.

Lets say this guy is your average loosa/passive fish. Kinda guy who calls you down with weaker kickers etc. One of the guys we make our money off.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Lets say this guy is your average loosa/passive fish. Kinda guy who calls you down with weaker kickers etc. One of the guys we make our money off.

Inclined to go with bet/fold, but having 2 streets to go complicates things as we're paying off too much when he has it.

How big does he bet? In other words, is he aware of proper bet sizing. Does he tip hands with bet sizes? If either is true, I'm inclined to check and see what he does.

Originally Posted by Fnord

How big does he bet? In other words, is he aware of proper bet sizing.

Well he probably won't minbet anyway. He maybe heard of pot-odds on TV. If you check to hem he could bet $10 and it could mean anything.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Does he tip hands with bet sizes?

Don't know.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

If you check to hem he could bet $10 and it could mean anything.

Call.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

If you check to hem he could bet $10 and it could mean anything.

Call.

Why? How much of the reason for our passive play is because we're afraid he has the flush? What are the other reasons?

Your math on the turn is wrong. Pot is $35.

If I check and draw a bet of unknown strength I would call because folding the best hand is a bigger mistake than letting him see a river.

I also don't mind inducing bluffs from players who won't put me to a difficult decision often enough.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Your math on the turn is wrong. Pot is $35.

ty, edited.

Originally Posted by Fnord

If I check and draw a bet of unknown strength I would call because folding the best hand is a bigger mistake than letting him see a river.

If you can call then why not raise? This guy isn't the type to raise you without a hand that beats you.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

If you can call then why not raise? This guy isn't the type to raise you without a hand that beats you.

I probably would bet. But if I didn't it would be because I can get a read on his bet size and figure he'll charge me less for showdown than I would charge him given that we're 2 bets from showdown.

So if the river comes a blank , what do you estimate the chances you're ahead are? If, as I would believe they are, greater then 50%, surely you don't want a cheap showdown.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

If, as I would believe they are, greater then 50%, surely you don't want a cheap showdown.

It depends on how big you think your edge is. 51% isn't the cut-off point because you're vulnerable to a raise and won't always get paid off by a worse hand on the river.

With a calling station I check the turn and call a reasonable size bet on the turn/river...depending on the type of calling station (some calling stations will not bet without the nuts...I fold to this type), but with most calling stations, they won't bet a whole lot and it is easy to call down any bets they make.

And after reading all the other replies...god am I passive.