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 Originally Posted by animal_chin
Originally Posted by iopq
Originally Posted by Robb
Don't care much for "always" and "never" kinda statements about poker, but nearly every time someone has 5-bet in one of my games, QQ was no good.
Seems like I should be doing a lot of 5b bluffing against you
You are dumb. 2/3 of the time he will have AA or KK (assuming he only 4bs AA, KK, QQ which it sounds like he does).
well I assumed he'd 4b AK
let's see, say I 3b to 12BB and he 4b to 32BB
if I shove for 100 BB, I'll win a 200BB pot when I win putting in 88BB additionally
I'll also win a 132BB pot with 88 of which is mine when he folds
I win 0 when he calls and I lose
say my hand is 44 which I chose to bluff with
first outcome is 18.8% chance of happening against the range KK+ when he calls so it's worth 37.6BB
second outcome is when he folds
I need to make up 50.4BB to make the bluff profitable
which means he needs to fold 38.2% of the time for the bluff to be break-even
if he 4b AK, QQ+
he has 16 comboes of AK
6 comboes of QQ
12 comboes of KK+
22 out of 34 is 64.7%
but of course if he doesn't 4b AK I'm fucked
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