Will this play work at higher levels?

or even at this level over time?

$25NL on Party

You have been playing tight and aggressive. Very few hands shown down. The ones that were shown were quality. You have started to loosen up just a wee bit.

Villian is looser then Rilla's mom. You have seen him make some moves that you know to be bluff's since no one hits the board that often. He has called flop bets and check raised turn bets before to take down the pot. Money is not an issue for him.

You $25
Him $28

You are in a late position. You have AQs. You raise to 5xBB. Your standard raise. He calls. It's now HU. Pot is $2.85

693 rainbow on the board. You continue with $1.75. He calls. Post is $6.35

Turn is J. You smack the turn for $4. He calls. Pot is $14.35.

River is 4. No flushes possible.

Now, my thinking here is that he could be on a smaller pair or a draw. He has been smooth calling looking for any weakness in me so he can pounce. So, I want to look like I have a made hand and want value from the river. I place $5 in front of me. He thinks and folds.

Thoughts please.

Did this happen, or is it a beautiful fantasy?

It's worked 3 times for me so far in some form or another. Each time it was against a LAGG that I knew to have above average poker smarts.

I meant to add that in the first place, but forgot. 3 times is not a large sample size, so I want to know if I just got lucky and should never make this play again, or if it is +EV.

Looks like you have him read so id play like that against him. But....
at 25nl there isnt any real need to play like that seen as there enough average/poor players who will pay you top hands off anyway.
Yes, its probably a good play/read but arguably at 25nl not needed.

It's the kind of play I've tried many times (much less so now, simply because it just doesn't work often enough) and I just don't think it works. You can never be sure if you're up against a draw; a low pair being overplayed by a donk; a LAgg hanging on for a miracle card; or a decent hand being slowplayed. As only one of these actually pays you off, I'm not sure how it can be justified.

If the suggestion is that after two barrels are fired, a third is always worth dispatching, then that might be a different argument. I think.

1. A loose aggressive will raise you if he feels ahead. Calling is VERY weak and "chasy"

2. Firing the third barrell with a weak hand, and little chance of it being called by a losing hand is not optimal against any opponent who will bluff a lot, or a calling station.

3. If you feel you have the best hand against an aggressive opponent, then checking the river and snapping off his bluff attempt is often the correct play.

Firing the third barrell with a weak hand should generally be reserved for hands you play with tight players who hate to pay the pot when behind. The purpose of the third barrell against a tight player is to get them to fold. This is incorrect a lot against an loose aggressive player (see 3) or a calling station (loose passive) type player.

Thanks Rondavu. I will retire that play.

Originally Posted by AHiltz

Thanks Rondavu. I will retire that play.

Don't retire it. Just use it appropriately. Nothing in poker should ever be mechanical or unconscious.

Given the opponent profile, I think the turn (and flop somewhat) is the key to this hand. I also wonder if we want to build up pots so fast pre-flop with 5x and if we should bother c-bettting this guy.

Did he have position on you? Table/seat selection might be another factor to consider.

This is EXACTLY the situation I want to avoid in NLHE.

+You have to succeed every 4th time this play to break even.
-You need good reads and/or good guesses which hands he could be calling with.
-if he hit anything here he might just call you. Only better hand your bluff might make him fold here is AK? So if you put him on a draw but you arent sure a check might be good here. That doesnt help your image though since you bet 2 times with unimproved AQ..

In general I would make small post oak bluffs (on river that is) if I put him on a draw. If the pot is big enough even smaller bets than this might make them fold. Not that many players make re-raise bluffs on river..

if you were OOP here I really dont like the play. These are the plays that cost me money in ring. Do not try to force things.

Making plays based on solid reads? Yeah, that will work at any level you play.

Originally Posted by AHiltz

Villian is looser then Rilla's mom.

Gimme a seat at this table!



As for the play, I think it's situational...depends on what he's calling with, really. How big is his pair and did he miss his draw?

Obviously a missed draw isn't calling one red cent here.