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 Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Originally Posted by geoffm33
No, you aren't missing anything, intuitively I just don't think he is that far behind to consider it a suckout, but that's just my opinion. Someone can run the numbers to see how far behind he is and prove me wrong. How far behind does someone need to be to consitute a suckout? Or does the runner/runner make it a suckout regardless?
If he has the Ac, then we're ahead about 88/12.
Without the runner-runner flush draw involved, we're ahead about 91.5/8.5.
I don't see how anyone's intuition can feel than an overpair vs a set AI on the flop is close by any means unless the flop is suited and the overpair has a card of that suit. (Which, btw, we're head 66/34 on that one.)
If those #'s are correct, then my intuition is horrible!!
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