Where the real money is

This is sort of a cross post, but I'll go for it.

In NLHE with non-trival stack depth any deterministic, predictable approach to poker is exploitable.

The real profit in poker does not come from playing our hand in some idealistic "perfect" way. It comes from finding our opponents' predictable tendencies and exploiting them.

Something to think about when you're opening for 5x UTG with AA-QQ/AK and c-bet any flop. Or when you ask for the "correct" way to play a hand against an unknown opponent.

Well, your post touches upon two things. Finding your opponents play pattern and exploiting it but also becoming predictable such that we can be exploited.

I think it is easy to become predictable. “We” have a standard way we play a particular hand from a particular position and we tend to stick with it. One saving grace is that if you are adjusting to the table conditions then you tend to do a different thing each time even with the same hand. Eg. My normal opener with AQ is 4xbb (as it is with any raising hand) but if someone min raises before me I’ll “reraise” him to 6xbb. We just added some variability into our AK opening. The more of these we have the less predictable we are.

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so... what you are saying is to play poker, not cards...

- sed

Originally Posted by Sed

so... what you are saying is to play poker, not cards...

- sed

Some people don't know the difference..

While I agree this IS the way to make the most money, I sometimes find trying to get fancy on players at micro limits backfires on me more often than not. That one time I think I have them pegged and come up over the top, they've got the nuts.

I'm also very inherently lazy. I pull up four tables and play my position / starting hands. I do my best to put my opponents on a hand when I get involved with them, but sometimes I just dont feel like paying attention to ALL of the action ALL of the time when I'm playing 4-tables. Obviously its going to be harder to get reads when you're playing more than one table at a time.

Even though my game suffers a bit from not being as observant as I should be, I still find that my bankroll increases quicker 4-tabling $10 tables playing the "standard" way, rather than just pulling up one table and trying to get cute against them. This could just be because I dont have enough experience yet to make the correct "moves" at the correct time on the players I have reads on.

How easy is it for you veteran players to play 4+ tables and still pay attention to all the action to the point where you can get solid reads? The only reads I usually have are when I specifically get involved in a hand with someone and remember how they played it.

Doyle Brunson said don't try to bluff a fish. Don't try to put moves on bad players because they dont understand whats going on in the first place. I think mixing up your play and making moves with your reads probably becomes more profitable as you move up in limits and the skill level of the players increases.

To expound on what Fnord said-

Lots of the fish online nowadays think they're "educated". They'll berate you for playing that T8o, telling you to "go read a book" or some shit. There's a movement towards predictability, towards tighter play. IMO it's harder to exploit this movement until you get to the higher levels.

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

Id like to add that some of the most successful sessions I've had were a result of 'outside the box' play. Raising UTG with 10/2s or K/6os etc and playing the flop as if I hit a monster or even catching the odd hand with unlikely starting cards. Seems that more often than not (not so much in tourney play but more so in the ring)...abandoning 'logic' and the much praised 'starting hand requirements' is vital for achieving success. There are far too many players that play only premium hands and its too predictable to..as Fnord said...raise 5X UTG with AA or A/K and play the flop when you catch that top pair. The real pots come when you for example call a huge pre flop raise with 5/7os and catch odd trips on the flop (5/5/x) your opponents mindset is that there is no way that you would have called such a big raise with that 5 and if he is holding JJ, QQ etc ..chances are you get paid off. Naturally you have to have expert post flop skills to make this strat work and be willing to lose several small pots before you catch the monster.

I remember one of the biggest pots I ever won in the ring was with 6/4os calling a big raise (4 callers before me) when I was on the bb. The flop came 6/6/4 and I got paid off huge by K/K and A/4. It was a 5/10 game and I had just under a 400 dollar stack and basically tripled up on the most unlikely starting hand. Whereas yesterday I lost 2 huge pots with QQ and AA respectively.

Starting hands are only a small part of the game

and if the flop had come 4/4/8? which is MORE LIKELY then ui would of lost everything

Originally Posted by Alibi

IMO it's harder to exploit this movement until you get to the higher levels.

I agree. If I just camp at 25NL, I profit. When I start attempting to get fancy, I get myself into trouble. I probably suck, but that's my experience at 25NL.

I'm right with you there.

Interesting post as always fnord.
I agree big money can be made from as rippy would term unorthodox play. My concern for this would be that this must become awfully swingy. You may call/raise with garbage or non-premium cards a lot and flop nothing/have to give up the pot but get paid when you flop a monster. So very up and down.
Secondly, in finding patterns in players you are essentially looking to bluff them when yo read they missed the flop. Again getting called on bluffs can be very costly and swingy, but also lucrative when it works.
I guess what im considering is that in order to win big you have to be prepared to lose big.

Fnord is totally right but this is all situational and does not have to be swingy at all. Don'y raise 74o UTG every time or even on a random basis but if you have been playing tight against perceptive opponents then it could very possibly be +EV. If your opponents never put you on cards then optimal play is, well optimal and theres no reason to deviate from it. However I find the players who only play their cards by far the easyest to play against.

Originally Posted by Fnord

This is sort of a cross post, but I'll go for it.

In NLHE with non-trival stack depth any deterministic, predictable approach to poker is exploitable.

The real profit in poker does not come from playing our hand in some idealistic "perfect" way. It comes from finding our opponents' predictable tendencies and exploiting them.

Something to think about when you're opening for 5x UTG with AA-QQ/AK and c-bet any flop. Or when you ask for the "correct" way to play a hand against an unknown opponent.

The ideal way of playing a hand is the way which takes into account your opponent's weaknesses.

And there is a correct way of playing a hand against an unknown opponent. An unknown opponent is assumed to be a loose-passive player who rarely bluffs. There's a statistical basis for this which you're probably aware of given that you've been playing poker for a while.

The idea is to get a truer sense of your opponent's tendencies through observation, rather than percieving him/her as a "random" player.

Originally Posted by Fnord

This is sort of a cross post, but I'll go for it.

In NLHE with non-trival stack depth any deterministic, predictable approach to poker is exploitable.

The real profit in poker does not come from playing our hand in some idealistic "perfect" way. It comes from finding our opponents' predictable tendencies and exploiting them.

Something to think about when you're opening for 5x UTG with AA-QQ/AK and c-bet any flop. Or when you ask for the "correct" way to play a hand against an unknown opponent.

Yeah, it's called playing POKER! God, how did I forget this for the last few weeks. Shame on me.

np.

This is one of the reasons I rarely mulittable, and almost never play more than 2 tables.

Harrington says that you will make the most money playing the opposite of your typical, comfortable game.

Also, if I notice an SNG playing acting "rocklike" (folding SB at 10:1 with small blinds, taking a long time to make a trivial decision) I immediatly look them up to see how many tables they are playing. I find a guy who's playing 8 SNGs at once - he's going to have to out card me, because he can't out play me.

Not sure what to do about people who hide from search.... are they multitablers or fish who had someone stalking them???