Where does playing for set value end...

...and playing for showdown value begin? I hit here, but it makes me think that I'm folding middling pairs too often against shorties when the implied odds aren't there to play strictly for set value. Anybody fold preflop here? What if you had 77/66?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $280.16
UTG+1: $89.57
MP1: $46.18
MP2: $19.50
MP3: $92
CO: $103.40
Button: $17.43
SB: $26.85
BB: $123.85

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with 8 8
Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, 4 folds, SB raises to $3.5, BB folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: 2 9 9 ($11.5, 3 players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $12, MP1 folds, SB calls.

Turn: 8 ($35.5, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls all-in $11.35.
Uncalled bets: $0.65 returned to Hero.

River: 2 ($58.2, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $58.2)


Results:
Final pot: $58.2
Hero shows 8c 8d
SB doesn't show Ks As

hm... we will need figures for how often a middle pair is going to be an overpair. It's not often...

88: there are 4 X (9,T,J,Q,K,A) that should not flop if we want to be in Good Shape. Leaving 26 cards, where three of each must come out
26/50 + 25/49 + 24/48
13% of the time. Not too bad, I guess.

Sidenote: In LHE we're not getting an opp off 2 big cards with a single bet on the flop, so assuming heshe sees the turn a bigger card than 8 will be out 94% of the time. And 88 therefore sucks unset.

77 I get : (22/50) * (21/49) * (20/48)
bigger card than 7 92% of the time. Ick.

Against a PFR these are the kind of odds we have. So you could add them in if you need to justify a call. In my opinion, this is strictly if you're perceived as too tight, and need to see some flops if you don't want to get robbed blind.

Against a limper we probably don't need an overpair to have a play. consider J44 when we're holding 88, or a coordinated board. I don't see how a limper with a J (except AJ, weird limping choice?) can get too excited here.

I also like 88 with e.g. J45, two of them spades. Then a spade bigger than J comes at some point, and you can often buy from TPGK, who now has three ways to be losing.

[bump]

This stuff was really just to get people thinking... comments?

I think this is one of the topics where reads (which I suck at obtaining, btw ) is extremely important. Against certain players I'll showdown any pair, while against others AA is auto-fold if it gets to the river unimproved.

In general I like to take down non-set posts with c-bets, if my c-bet is called I slow way down.