Why would 5:1 be variance, but 4:1 not?
its pretty arbitrary i know, but i draw the line at 5:1 because that is the point where you are a stronger favorite than facing a straight or flush draw. i do not consider negative variance to include losing to a legitimate draw, thats all i was going with that. if the pot is 2$ on the turn, you have the current nuts and theres a flush draw out there, and you go all in for a hundred more, and he calls and hits his flush: i dont think that can be called variance, u should just expect to win the next four times in that situation.

however in a situation where someone calls you all in with 2 pr because they make a mistake and think they have the best hand, then hit their four-outer anyway=variance.