Quote Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
"Taking a shot" is like "moving up" except it's like omigad if I lose x buyins I move back down and thus pretty much completely misses the point.
Why does it matter what x is
When x is small it has a similar effect on your lifespan at the stakes you're moving up to as if your entire bankroll management rule was to move up when you had x buy-ins at that game.

When you're ready to move up, you have a relatively large x for the level you're moving up to, and your win-rate at the level you're moving up from is sufficient, then it's fairly rare that you'll have to move down period.

The concept of "taking a shot" means you hope you don't catch even a minor bit of variance or you have to move back down. If you have been beating the level you're moving up from for at least 3 ptbb/100 over 50k hands like I've recommended time and time again, then you should not move back down from the stakes you've moved up to until you've lost at least 10 buy-ins.

Quote Originally Posted by JinxT4
If I had to guess, I would imagine if x is a small number (like 2-3), that taking a shot makes the outcome pretty much solely dependent on how hot/cold you run, as opposed to moving up properly rolled & the bankroll being able handle losing maybe 10 (?) buyins & being able to better see whether or not you're winning/losing at the higher stakes over a larger number of hands (takes more time to lose 10 buyins than 2-3).

Or am I completely off?
You're pretty much on the money.