When the kicker matters less... maybe

A discussion with Mike made me realize that I have a theory -- never made conscious until now but affecting my strategy:

The importance of your kicker is directly proportional to the rank of the pair.

This evolved from a hand like this:
Me: 5d3d
5 or so limpers, inc. me

Board: 2h 4h 5s

Opp bets 80% of pot.
All fold but me.

My kicker sucks but that doesn't seem like a big issue to me. The reasoning is: when people pair up nines, tens, and whatnot it's usually because they're playing big cards. When they pair up sixes and down it'll be the little suited connector guys, and (we love them) the Ax crowd.

Of course you have to sniff for the Ax, but you just don't see a lot of K5, Q5, J5. So a hand like the one above isn't likely to be a kicker battle. Your thoughts?

(for the curious, he was an Axer -- A4 as it turns out -- and made quad fours by the end. ick.)

sounds good to me. However, when you are holding a top pair thats low, you have other problems to worry about.
- Over pairs (pocket pairs)
- The turn/river cards will most likely be an overcard

Personally, I wouldnt mind folding these hands and waiting for something better. Although, HtoH they are fairly strong... In your situation I would of raised or fold. You have an open-ended striaight and top-pair

I would have folded. There are more hands that he could be betting that beat you than hands that you beat. I assume he's not stupid enough to lead bet bluff into a multiway pot and the 4 flush out there, so he's probably got top pair or better. You've just got top pair. He could easily have A5s, 45s, 22, 44, 55, 66-99, or (ugh) 36s. All of these beat you. What were you hoping he was betting with? A4s? I think this is a fold, although I suppose a raise to "find out where you're at" is not horrible. I think you know where you are at anyways though without a raise. Probably behind.

Edit: I failed to notice you had the str8 draw too. That makes a semi-bluff raise a very acceptable play.

If you have an "unlikely pair" then I believe you can remove some of your worry about a kicker. Such as your hand above. How likely is it that someone has your pair?

Now if you had K5, and the board was K42 then your kicker is probalby no good, but in the above situation I think you can remove some of your kicker concerns.

Doyle wrote about this in his book. I think it was related to a pair on the board (so you have an exposed set). But, he talks about what a "reasonable" player should be holding.

I think I would have folded here and found a better place to get all my money in though.



8-) 8-) 8-) 8-)

I think it was related to a pair on the board (so you have an exposed set). But, he talks about what a "reasonable" player should be holding.

Right...he's just saying when the board pairs with small cards, he plays his hand as if it didn't. When big cards pair the board, he slows down. Still gotta worry about a pocket pair hitting the full in this case though. What he says makes sense if you don't put your opp on a pocket pair.