Whats your line? Gutshot + FD

Villian is an aggro donk with a wide 3bet range

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($9.95)
CO ($14.95)
BTN ($14.55)
SB ($5.95)
BB ($6.65)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $0.4, 2 folds, SB raises to $0.7, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.3

Flop: ($1.5, 2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero ???

push.

I kinda hate it, but I do it anyway.

We can shove expecting to profit here.

Originally Posted by Unibomber14

We can shove expecting to profit here.

Not necessarily. We're a bit behind any ace here and way behind when he holds the K .

With that having been said, it's still a shove I believe, but mostly because of villain's stack size.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by Unibomber14

We can shove expecting to profit here.

Not necessarily. We're a bit behind any ace here and way behind when he holds the K .

With that having been said, it's still a shove I believe, but mostly because of villain's stack size.

this is assuming he has a pair with the K, and yeah i agree with everyone, shove.

Could somebody explain this hand to me? Do we think he's cbetting w/o an ace or is that fact irrelevant?

Originally Posted by will641

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Originally Posted by Unibomber14

We can shove expecting to profit here.

Not necessarily. We're a bit behind any ace here and way behind when he holds the K .

With that having been said, it's still a shove I believe, but mostly because of villain's stack size.

this is assuming he has a pair with the K, and yeah i agree with everyone, shove.

Your wording has thrown me off a bit on what you mean here, but if he has an ace without the K , we're still slightly behind.

If i push the flop that means I need to raise his $1 flop bet to $5.25, doesn't that seem like a overbet? I guess if I'm going to raise to $3.50 or $4, I might as well bet the last little bit.

If he has 100BB stack what is your play?

I'm still getting my head around the odds calcuations etc - but yeah, it looks like we're betting another $4.25 to win a total pot of $6.75 if he calls? Assuming we hit our striaght or flush draw? (Assuming we're beat if we only hit a K or Q?)

Can someone explain the math to show this is a correct shove?

raise, call a shove

i say this because we'd raise this flop with a good tp versus a suspected donk and we should do it with all our hands that want to play big pots here.

Originally Posted by Hal

I'm still getting my head around the odds calcuations etc - but yeah, it looks like we're betting another $4.25 to win a total pot of $6.75 if he calls? Assuming we hit our striaght or flush draw? (Assuming we're beat if we only hit a K or Q?)

Can someone explain the math to show this is a correct shove?

After Villians bet on the flop, the pot is $2.5, if we push, we have to call his $1 first. That means the pot would be $3.50 and we would put him all in for $4.25 more. If he calls, the total pot will be $3.50 + our $4.25 + his $4.25 = $12, so we need 4.25/12 = 35.4% equity to make this play, (Plus there might be a little folding equity).

Board: As Js 6s
Dead:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 46.680% 45.17% 01.51% { KdQs }
Hand 1: 53.320% 51.81% 01.51% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo } (5%)

Note: I don't claim to be a math expert, and I wanted to exercise my EV calc skills, so if there's something wrong here please let me know!

Originally Posted by bigslikk

Could somebody explain this hand to me? Do we think he's cbetting w/o an ace or is that fact irrelevant?

An ace? This is a pretty scary board, we're putting him to the test here because we have FE against a big part of his range, including some aces I think.

As for 100bb effective stacks... After his 1 and our 1, there's 3.50 in the pot and we have 8.30 behind. Raising 3 more leaves us with 5.3 behind and gives him better than 2:1. Since he's an agro donk we can assume he pushes a fair amount, and we have pretty good odds to call that push. So if we push, we're pushing 9.30 into 2.50 and giving him a bit worse than 3:2. I don't really like committing that much, though I don't think it's all that bad. A call isn't terrible, either. It's close, but I'm like 50/50 on the call or push.

Originally Posted by dev

Originally Posted by bigslikk

Could somebody explain this hand to me? Do we think he's cbetting w/o an ace or is that fact irrelevant?

An ace? This is a pretty scary board, we're putting him to the test here because we have FE against a big part of his range, including some aces I think.

As for 100bb effective stacks... After his 1 and our 1, there's 3.50 in the pot and we have 8.30 behind. Raising 3 more leaves us with 5.3 behind and gives him better than 2:1. Since he's an agro donk we can assume he pushes a fair amount, and we have pretty good odds to call that push. So if we push, we're pushing 9.30 into 2.50 and giving him a bit worse than 3:2. I don't really like committing that much, though I don't think it's all that bad. A call isn't terrible, either. It's close, but I'm like 50/50 on the call or push.

...which makes pushing/raising all that much better because being the aggressor is always more +ev.
Implied threat and all...