Quote Originally Posted by loonychune
when i see 53s or 42s, i'm praying for a deep stack to raise with aces..
Really? Just roughly...

With 2 suited cards, you'll flop a flush 1 every 119 times.
You'll flop a straight 1 every 102 times.
You'll flop a full house 1 every 1088 times

These events aren't completely independent of each other and a few other things might happen... you might flop trips and have the best hand, you might flop trips and have the worse hand, you might have the lower end of the flush, you might get outdrawn and lose...

Let's just say you are successful 1 in every 80 times.

Let's assume on average that it costs you 3.5bb every time you call this raise. Also, let's assume you're both deep stacked at 200bb each.
So, you win 200bb once and lose 3.5bb 79 times.

Net profit: 200 - (79*3.5) = -76.5bb.

This is all very rough. But i'll put it another way.

If you're both deep stacked at 200bb, and it costs you 3.5bb on average per call, then you HAVE to be successful at least 1 every 58 times.

If you're only 100bb deep (as is common), you have to be successful at least 1 in every 29.5 times.

I am pretty sure Super System is all about bullying players. 42s will flop a fair number of draws, in which case you at least have SOME equity if the better hand calls you (even then you don't want a call from AA).
This is too conservative. You're forgetting about all the times we will flop draws, or have favourable boards to bluff out the other guys AA, KK or whatever we believe him to have. Roughly 20% of the time by the river any two cards will crack AA, so obviously we aren't just hoping to win 1/56 times here...

I'm not saying we should all start calling raises with junk when we're deep and we know someone has a big pair, you're just assuming you will never be able to outplay the villian. You also ignored the odds of flopping 2 pair or draws, pair + draws that we can set up a big semi-bluff on (i.e. represent a set or something and hope villian folds when we are behind with only outs to 2 pair or a straight etc.) You also ignored all the unfavourable flops for a big pair. Thus, how you play a 'potential junk' hand against someone 200bb deep depends on your opponent and whether he can at least fold a napkin or not.

In fact, we don't know if our opponent has aces in the first place (unless of course in the rare cirumstance we run into a player that we have information on who ONLY raises AA) - so this makes calling with a bad hand for the purpose of setting up for a bluff/float on the flop even more inviting since opponent could easily have the more likely holding (unpaired hand).