Quote Originally Posted by Superior
(Chance to flop a set with a PP for three hands) [1/7 * 1/7 * 1/7] * [5/49] (chance that on the turn he gets a better hand than you) = 5/16807

If these hands were consecutive, it would happen approximately once every 3361 hands.
That is simply incorrect.

What you need is to guess the average edge for AA against a pre flop calling hand(does not have to be a PP) this would be approximately 80% to win or 20% to lose by the river. Assuming that you are heads up, chances that you will lose 4 times in a row is simply 1/5*1/5*1/5*1/5 = 0,0016 or 1/625.

In the case where his opponent had KQ and the turn gave him 2 pair, well he was drawing to 5 outs so there was about 10% chance to improve to a hand beating AA on the turn.