Weak overpair situation - What is most +EV?

Hero limps in w/ 99 UTG. ~5 to the flop. Flop is 4,5,7 and is 2-suited. What is the most +EV play here for Hero and why?

1 limper. Bet 1/3-1/2 the pot. You're most likely best right now, but the pot is small, and you want weaker hands like 88, 66, Axs, etc to call with just under the correct odds so you can give them a tough choice on the turn.

2-3 limpers. Bet 2/3 pot to the full pot. You need to be serious here, protecting your equity and folding to a raise.

4+ limpers (very loose game). Check/raise to protect your hand.

*doubled*

1/2 bet each street and fold to any raises.

Originally Posted by aleksandr

4+ limpers (very loose game). Check/raise to protect your hand.

I'm interested in situations with about 5 to the flop so I'll comment on this part. This seems like a very expensive line to take against so many opponents on a board that will produce an ugly turn card for our hand almost every time.

Originally Posted by BankItPayette

1/2 bet each street and fold to any raises.

What is the point of that line? I see a lot of problems with it. For one people could raise with top pair or draws and secondly half-pot is weak enough that you'll likely induce a bluff. And then fold to it...

bet, call a raise and lead turn

Bet slightly over the pot or check/raise. Be prepared to stay strong on the turn (lead) but I'd definately fold to aggression.

Aleksandr's advice seems pretty solid. Betting 1/2 pot sounds rather bad imho.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Bet slightly over the pot or check/raise. Be prepared to stay strong on the turn (lead) but I'd definately fold to aggression.

On check-raising:

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

This seems like a very expensive line to take against so many opponents on a board that will produce an ugly turn card for our hand almost every time.

Well, let's say the pot is $9. A guy bets $3, pot is $12, you c/r it another $10-$12. After that you simply stop investing money in the pot, except for calling minbets. Often you can take it down then and there. If you get a call, it's either a guy who has a made hand (that beats you) or a draw. If the draw doesn't hit, you'll take the pot.. otherwise you're out anyway.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Well, let's say the pot is $9. A guy bets $3, pot is $12, you c/r it another $10-$12. After that you simply stop investing money in the pot, except for calling minbets. Often you can take it down then and there. If you get a call, it's either a guy who has a made hand (that beats you) or a draw. If the draw doesn't hit, you'll take the pot.. otherwise you're out anyway.

You're basically putting in twice the money when you c/r, and the turn is going to suck usually. You can make them pay for a draw w/o a c/r. If you could take it down w/ a c/r, you could probably take it down w/ a bet also.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

You're basically putting in twice the money when you c/r, and the turn is going to suck usually. You can make them pay for a draw w/o a c/r. If you could take it down w/ a c/r, you could probably take it down w/ a bet also.

Difference is, now you've taken down a little extra from an attempted pot steal or a weak hand bet. I'm also not really betting too much more than usual, since if I choose to bet this flop, I bet over the pot too. But please take into consideration I'm not saying this is the right way to play.. it's just what I do, and it fits into my aggro style, since I would do the same with better hands too.

check raising is also bad because it might give KQ or A2 or 66 a free card to beat you

Originally Posted by gabe

check raising is also bad because it might give KQ or A2 or 66 a free card to beat you

I don't think I understand this - how are they getting a free card if they have to call basically a pot sized raise after their weak bet?

Originally Posted by jackvance

I'm also not really betting too much more than usual, since if I choose to bet this flop, I bet over the pot too. But please take into consideration I'm not saying this is the right way to play.. it's just what I do, and it fits into my aggro style, since I would do the same with better hands too.

It sounds like, from this post and others, you like to overbet the pot alot. IMO this is -EV in the longrun.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

It sounds like, from this post and others, you like to overbet the pot alot. IMO this is -EV in the longrun.

Well.. thing is.. if I stick to my 2/3-3/4 pot bets, this works out fine too. But it's too slow to my liking. I kinda want to make money faster. But if I only go heavy on my strong hands (2 pair and better), I'm getting folds too often since it's rare. So I look for occassions that I can bet strongly (over the pot) more often without leaking too much money. I'll end up getting more calls on my stronger hands, which I want to play for big pots, since I play a general more aggro style (this makes people want to call you down). I'm still working a lot on fine-tuning my style however, so changes are possible, but this is how I tend to play it now.

(unless I feel like not really concentrating or am at a retard table, then I go standard weak/tight)

Originally Posted by jackvance

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

It sounds like, from this post and others, you like to overbet the pot alot. IMO this is -EV in the longrun.

Well.. thing is.. if I stick to my 2/3-3/4 pot bets, this works out fine too. But it's too slow to my liking. I kinda want to make money faster. But if I only go heavy on my strong hands (2 pair and better), I'm getting folds too often since it's rare. So I look for occassions that I can bet strongly (over the pot) more often without leaking too much money. I'll end up getting more calls on my stronger hands, which I want to play for big pots, since I play a general more aggro style (this makes people want to call you down). I'm still working a lot on fine-tuning my style however, so changes are possible, but this is how I tend to play it now.

(unless I feel like not really concentrating or am at a retard table, then I go standard weak/tight)

I understand where you are coming from about the money not coming fast enough. You must play smart and good though nonetheless. Maybe you are doing fine w/ your overbets. If so great. I'm just giving you the suggestion cuz I believe it could help your game. And I think you should rarely play weak/tight. You can still be pretty freaking aggressive and get big hands called by betting 2/3-3/4 the pot. About the money thing again, how many tables do you play? I began 8-tabling last week and OMG the money comes in sooo much faster. Of course you need a solid game to begin with, and it's probably easier doing it in full ring, but I suggest you try it once you are comfy with the idea. Once you get the hang of it you'll never look back.

I only play 6max. Playing 2 tables is a breeze, 3 tables wrecks me. I get disoriented and develop a head-ache within 10 minutes. Not sure why, maybe I rely too much on reads and I can't follow with more than 2 tables, or maybe it's the lack of experience, I don't know.

Possibly it's more effective to develop a more "all-round" strategy and 4-table 6max (which should be the equivalent of 8-tabling full ring) but atm I'm still playing with too many ideas and possible strategies to settle down on something which is, in my mind atleast, an 'easy way out'. I just love to play aggro and Lagg. Maybe I'll get over it though

Originally Posted by jackvance

Originally Posted by gabe

check raising is also bad because it might give KQ or A2 or 66 a free card to beat you

I don't think I understand this - how are they getting a free card if they have to call basically a pot sized raise after their weak bet?

Who says they are betting? "Getting a free card" means they check behind you, ruining your attempt to a)put more money into the pot and b)gain fold equity.

Originally Posted by Krieg1984

Who says they are betting? "Getting a free card" means they check behind you, ruining your attempt to a)put more money into the pot and b)gain fold equity.

Ehm, if they call the c/r then I'm basically done with the pot, except calling for small bets, and hope for a check/check and to take the pot on a missed draw. (atleast on a fragile hand like that) If I wanted a) and b) then I'd take the bet/lead line.

Originally Posted by jackvance

I only play 6max. ...

Possibly it's more effective to develop a more "all-round" strategy and 4-table 6max (which should be the equivalent of 8-tabling full ring)

How do you figure? In what way(s) are they equivalent?

Amount of hands played.

lead and try to win a small pot, but don't lose a big one..

Originally Posted by jackvance

Originally Posted by gabe

check raising is also bad because it might give KQ or A2 or 66 a free card to beat you

I don't think I understand this - how are they getting a free card if they have to call basically a pot sized raise after their weak bet?

i should have said 'going for a check raise.'

the point was that when the check raise misses and no one bets, you are giving lots of hands the chance to catch up to you