Villains's UTG Range?

Lock Poker -- $0.02/$0.04 NL Hold'em -- 9 Players

UTG Villain has a tendency to raise limped pots and to 3-bet when s/he sees the previous play as weak (limped around, an open & several callers). Those hands are marginal most of the time, so I think Villain's UTG range is strong.

Not sure about BB. Don't know much.

SB - $4.58
BB - $3.93
UTG - $3.99
UTG+1 - $1.94
MP1 (Hero) - $5.09
MP2 - $1.29
HJ - $4.98
CO - $1.62
BTN - $16.19

Pot is $0.06

Dealt to Hero K, A

UTG raises $0.16, fold, Hero calls, five folds, BB calls

Pot is $0.50

*** FLOP *** 9, 5, K

BB checks, UTG bets $0.34, Hero raises to $0.68, BB folds, UTG is all-in $3.49, Hero?

I decided to flat pre since I didn't want to face a 4-bet. I also felt that Villain would c-bet on flops that I would hit really hard.

I min-raised to see where I was at w/ TPTK, as I wasn't sure I was ahead here. I don't think stacking off is a good idea here, as I don't see Villain 4-bet shoving OTF w/ QQ, JJ, or AK. I didn't want to call because I felt that Villain was going to bet OTT no matter the card.

I pegged UTG Villain's range pre as 99+,AJs+,KJs+,AJo+,KJo+ (which could be a little liberal). Although I have great equity against it on this flop, I don't think it's good when I'm facing a 4-bet shove.

Thoughts?

No stats on villain? VPIP/PFR etc?

3bet pre.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

No stats on villain? VPIP/PFR etc?

3bet pre.

I don't play with a HUD, so no, I don't have those stats.

Is he a reg? It's tough to comment on his UTG range without at least knowing that he's the TYPE who would play tight from UTG.

Anyway, this is kinda a spot where how you play the rest of your range is important. CiB'ing preflop here against TAggs can be good jolly fun, but it helps to have a CiB bluffing range for this to be effective.

As for flop, if villain is a TAgg, then I'm not really fist-pumping all that much. I mean, people are so bad at 4nl (lowest stake on this site, right?) that you'll see a lot of TP2K type stuff, but we're not exactly playing for stacks. I probably call down on most boards and bet whatever streets he checks because we can rely on him to make mistakes with speculative top pair hands and QQ and such. Anyway, CiB/folding against this type of player seems terrible (it's a great way to make them skittish about their hand without actually charging his draws that much, and we're giving him a chance to semi us off our hand).

Again, this is all based on the assumption that this is a TAgg. If he's a fish, then weeee bombs away! Raise flop bigger, and how you continue to a 3b depends on how aggressive villain is post.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

No stats on villain? VPIP/PFR etc?

3bet pre.

I am of the opinion that AK should not always be an automatic 3b preflop (not saying it is or it is not the case here).

Please expand on why you 3b. Do you 3b/shove, 3b/call or 3b/fold? Do you call if he shoves over your 3b?

Originally Posted by agnesamurphy

I min-raised to see where I was at w/ TPTK

Not a good reason to bet/raise. You bet for value or as a bluff. This is obviously not a bluff since no better hand ever folds. And if this is a value bet because villain would continue with worse K's, flush draws or second pairs, then it is not big enough.

Originally Posted by agnesamurphy

Those hands are marginal most of the time, so I think Villain's UTG range is strong.

What do you mean? Has villain shown down marginal hands after squeezing or after raising several limpers? And if so, what makes you think his UTG range is strong?

Not justifying raising to see where you're at but, did you find out?

Originally Posted by agnesamurphy

Lock Poker -- $0.02/$0.04 NL Hold'em -- 9 Players

UTG Villain has a tendency to raise limped pots and to 3-bet when s/he sees the previous play as weak (limped around, an open & several callers). Those hands are marginal most of the time, so I think Villain's UTG range is strong.

............................

I min-raised to see where I was at w/ TPTK, as I wasn't sure I was ahead here. I don't think stacking off is a good idea here, as I don't see Villain 4-bet shoving OTF w/ QQ, JJ, or AK. I didn't want to call because I felt that Villain was going to bet OTT no matter the card.

Knowing that the villain can pump the pot with a weak hand when he sees a weak play , why did you think a min raise would tell you anything ?

I min-raised because I thought that worse hands would call the min-raise (or fold), while better hands would re-raise/shove. I also really wasn't sure if TPTK was good, and I didn't want to 3-bet larger only to fold to a 4-bet or to face another barrel OTT.

Originally Posted by Keith

Knowing that the villain can pump the pot with a weak hand when he sees a weak play, why did you think a min raise would tell you anything ?

I should have clarified in the OP that the 3-bet to weak play read is a pre-flop action (one that's easily countered.) Granted, that doesn't necessarily mean the Villain won't do it post-flop. But, it does tell me that the Villain is positionally aware, hence my caution with my AK in this spot.

Originally Posted by surviva316

Is he a reg? It's tough to comment on his UTG range without at least knowing that he's the TYPE who would play tight from UTG.

Villain just started showing up a few days ago, at least on my tables, but I do think s/he is a reg. Villain plays multiple tables, sits with the max at all of them, and waits for the BB when sitting down. Besides the 3-betting to weakness read, I haven't seen Villain do anything out of line or fishy.

Originally Posted by daviddem

What do you mean? Has villain shown down marginal hands after squeezing or after raising several limpers? And if so, what makes you think his UTG range is strong?

I say this because you can easily counter this move by either re-raising or taking betting control OTF. I've seen Villain fold to re-raises or fold OTF after making the raise/3-bet.

Okay, in that case, I think that the third paragraph of my response applies. If villain is capable of squeezing with marginal hands (aka, semi-bluffing), then it's reasonable to expect that he's the type to feel comfortable 3b'ing strong draws here on the flop. So against those hands (though there aren't a ton of them in his range, tbh), we're basically bluffing ourselves off of our own hand when we CiB.

Against, TT-QQ, we get him to fold or MAYBE feel priced in only to snap fold on later streets, whereas we can likely get more value against these hands by betting on something like $0.90 on later streets.

Against TP2K type hands, I think that all we're doing is making him play skittish without actually charging him that much. It's like we get all the suspicion of a larger raise without getting all the money. Whereas we would have had a decent opportunity of getting his stack (if the betting goes something like $0.90->$1.14, then $2.60->$2.94), now we're just getting an extra $0.32 and a chance of squeezing another ~1.50 out of him. But who knows, maybe these players are more cally than I'm giving them credit for.

Of course, if villain feels like getting punchy (double barrels and such) with any kind of pure air or 77 type hand, then we're completely blowing a chance at getting that money.

Of course, I think that it makes us lose more money against 99/KK/AA, but I think that the more money we win against the other parts of his range make up for losing our stack to 7 combos (well, okay fine, 10 combos; no one knows how to fold 55 preflop at these stakes).

Preflop is a much better opportunity to manipulate his range in our favor. UTG openers rarely react to a CiB by 4b'ing with good-not-great hands like 77/AQ (and they'd much rather call than fold getting that price), whereas they will almost certainly 4b their nut range. So long as you have a bluffing range for doing this (A2s/54s type stuff), then it can be tough for villain to play OOP without the initiative.

EDIT: NOT that I'm trying to give the BC a case of the FPS. It takes a decent understanding of opening ranges and 3b'ing math and meta-game to be able to pick spots to turn a few folding hands into semi-bluffing hands and a few flatting hands into value raising hands, but since OP was so interested in how to manipulate ranges in our favor, I thought I'd throw that out there.

Just so you know yr facing a 3bet shove.
Cbet is bet 1 yr raise is bet 2 his shove is bet 3
fold now villains gonna have all sets AK and AA mebbe a few aggro played flush draws but not enough for us to get it in.
I like pre btw if villain is at all competent . I would call flop and prolly any turn and decide on the river. If villain chks at any point I'm going for value.

Based on your description of villain, as having a tendency to beat up on limpers etc, I'd say villain is aggro. Certainly aggro enough to be jamming Axcc here always, QJ/JTcc, and maybe even KQ (though far less likely).

I'm snap calling this (not literally, but in my mind it's a snap call, and then I wait a few seconds before actually calling. I don't think you should EVER ACTUALLY snap call in game. It gives villain too much information about how you view relative hand strength. )

I don't mind flatting pre vs an utg open.