Turned a set... ZOOM 25nl

The guy on my right was a fish and I think he has a pretty strong hand given his min raise to the UTG raiser. So i think flatting with 44, given that the guy behind is going to call almost 100%, I have odds.

When he bets the turn, I have to raise, I beat everything but QQ, JJ. But his flop check is definately suspicious, I dont feel like I can just flat though given the board texture.

Thoughts?

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($33.86)
SB ($34.04)
BB ($22.44)
UTG ($67.25)
MP ($30.76)
CO ($21.29)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4
UTG bets $0.75, 1 fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.75

Flop: ($4.85) J, Q, 6 (3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($4.85) 4 (3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $9, Hero raises to $32.36 (All-In), CO calls $10.79 (All-In)

River: ($44.43) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $44.43 | Rake: $2

Hand is played fine, imo. If you say he's a fish you still beat some hands he could play this way which makes you a slight favorite (and that's me assigning a tight range). Add TPTK and two pair (fish can min-3bet pre with QJs) then you crush him.

edit: Didn't see your turn sizing. Raise bigger.

Raise bigger on turn but it's just a cooler. Flop check makes it more likely he has you crushed but he still has combos that we crush

What are you doing pre flop? Just fold.

Why is UTG raise/calling always?

Why do you have odds?

fold pre. as played raise more and look to get it in. expect to see sets lots and poorly played AA/KK often enough for getting the money in to be profitable

Interested to hear why you guys like folding preflop and don't think UTG is calling almost always.

Not saying it's correct but I'd always call pre in this spot.

Originally Posted by kmind

Interested to hear why you guys like folding preflop and don't think UTG is calling almost always.

Not saying it's correct but I'd always call pre in this spot.

I think UTG is almost never folding pre but that doesn't mean we can expect him to get his stack in. CO doesn't have a big enough stack to set mine, which is the only reason we would be calling here imo. I mean are we really gonna call a min 3bet and then 3 streets with 44?

Originally Posted by supa

CO doesn't have a big enough stack to set mine

.

Didn't notice CO's stack size. Yeah in game I think I fold this too.

Conventional wisdom says 20:1 implied odds to set mine. However, we're almost 14:1 vs fish who we can expect to overplay his hands. Isn't it worth to set mine with these odds?

what makes you so sure CO has a strong range? i mean yeah he's a fish but unless we have specific stats i don't think we can put him squarely on KK+. some fish will do this with all kinds of pocket pairs, AK/AQs kind of stuff. plus UTG will 4bet some of the time forcing us to fold our equity, the fish wont pay us off with his "nut" hands on some boards, we'll get set-over-setted a very small amount of the time etc. because of these reasons i think it's a fold.

Originally Posted by rpm

what makes you so sure CO has a strong range? i mean yeah he's a fish but unless we have specific stats i don't think we can put him squarely on KK+. some fish will do this with all kinds of pocket pairs, AK/AQs kind of stuff. plus UTG will 4bet some of the time forcing us to fold our equity, the fish wont pay us off with his "nut" hands on some boards, we'll get set-over-setted a very small amount of the time etc. because of these reasons i think it's a fold.

Never said I was sure he has a strong range. In fact if you saw my first post you'd see me including QJs in his min-3betting range. This is just something I'm thinking about, i.e., playing small pairs vs fish.

i assumed you thought he had a strong range because you want to setmine and he needs to have a very strong range for setmining to be +EV here.

Originally Posted by rpm

i assumed you thought he had a strong range because you want to setmine and he needs to have a very strong range for setmining to be +EV here.

Well thats certainly why I called pre.

I think it's a fair assumption.

Vs a fish though, even if he has a weakish range I think we can still get his stack (or a sizable portion of that) if we knew he overplays hands. An example I can think of is if villain min-3 bets any Ax hands and the flop contains an A and he overplays TPNK then we can probably get all the money in. In a way, there's more opportunity for us for our set-mining to succeed.

This could all be wrong of course, just something I'm thinking about.

I do get your point about UTG though, so this is probably a wrong example of when to set-mine given less than 20:1 odds.

What reads do we have on utg?