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Trying to get to grips with the concept of Pot Odds

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  1. #1

    Default Trying to get to grips with the concept of Pot Odds

    I guess I have a sort of instinctive grasp of the notion of Pot Odds, but it's not something I'm able to apply rationaly and mathematically on a consistant basis at the moment when I'm put in front of a choice to fold or to call post-flop.

    Here's the situation I was in this afternoon. I'd like to know if I did the right choice or no, and what other possibilities were open to me (either before or after the flop).

    The game was played live at a Casino. It's a 1$/2$ No Limit Ring game with 8 players. I'm going kind of on memory for the exact amounts, but I don't think it matters to my question (the amounts are grossly exact).

    My stack was a lttle over 200$. I got Td, Qd.

    UTG folds. Villain is playing second, and he bets 8$ from a stack of about 350$. Next player folds, I call the 8$. Another fold, another Call and both blinds fold. Stack is around 25$.

    Flop is Kd, 7d, 3s.

    Villain bets 15$. I raise him to 65$. The other player folds. Villain pushes me All In.

    Should I have made the call? The pot was around 300$ (before I put in the last of my chips or no).

    Me and the villain have both been at the table for at least 90 minutes (he was already there when I got in). I've rapidly built a tight-aggressive image. I was basically the only player ever doing raises (except for a few short stacks going all in), everyone else was always going check or call. I never went to a showdown with nothing, and only mucked Aces (only showed highest cards) when I got people to fold after an aggressive raise on my part.

    I was pretty confident the 3rd player would fold. He had come in 30 minutes before, but had lost his buy in on the second hand he played, and after buying in another 100 $, he'd played very conservative. At most, I figured he was on AJ+ or a smaller pocket pair, which would lose anyway if I made my flush.

    I put the Villain onto AJ+, suited or no (hoping it wouldn't be in diamonds), maybe even KK. He was kind of on a winning streak, having won a huge pot (around 200 $) two hands before. My only real certitude was that he had some kind of a solid hand and he was playing in his confidence zone.

    I was drawing for the flush. I made the Call, and he had Kc, Ds. I lost to his pair of Kings after the Turn and River gave us nothing of value.

    Waiting for your comments. (And this is my firs post, so if that kind of question is too frequent on the board, my apologies).
  2. #2
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Your specific hand would depend on the stack sizes. In general, if you were getting better than about 2:1 on your call then you should make the call with just a flush draw with two cards to come.

    As for helping with pot odds, your pot odds are just a ratio of what you are calling to what the pot already is. For example, if in a $1/2 game someone shoves $10 and it's to you on the big blind, you would be calling $9 when the pot is already $13 for pot odds of 13:9 which is the same as 4.333:3.

    The way you use pot odds for making calls is that you compare your pot odds with the chance of making your hand. A flush draw is about 2:1 against to make with two cards to come, so if for example you were getting 3:1 pot odds from someone going all-in on the flop then it would be correct to call.
  3. #3
    oskar's Avatar
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    So the pot is at about 100$ (before the raise) and he seems to have you covered from what you are saying. You should have about 130 left, so you have to put in 130 to win 230[edit]I forgot to count the villains call for 50$... disregard[/edit] (that's why I like to pick it apart like that - you can only win what you have in front of you, so you should calculate the pot size accordingly)
    You can be pretty sure that he has at least a pair of kings - hopefully he doesn't have the nut flush draw.
    So you only have 9 outs to make the best hand or about 35% (if you need it fast, you can multiply the outs by 4 and you get the approximate percentage for turn and river) - so you need pretty exactly 2:1... or 3:1 - this is where I'm not sure about the terminology. You can either say 1 part - what you invest - 2 parts what you get back not including your investment. This is how I do it because I think graphically.
    I think the best lesson is to take pen and paper and try to figure it out yourself, so you really understand what's going on as opposed to just memorizing scenarios.
  4. #4
    The pot went like this:

    Intitialy = 3 $ (both blinds).
    Pre-flop: Villain bets 8 $ (pot 11 $). Me calls (pot 19 $). Third player calls (pot 27 $, minus rake = around 25 $)
    Flop. Villain bets 15 $ (pot 40 $). Me raise to 65 $ (pot 105 $). Third player drops. Villain raise All In (pot 155 $ + about 130 $ from Villain's reraise for total around 300$ before I decide to add my own 130 or no).

    So, I had pot odds somewhere around 3:1, maybe a little less, is that ok? And thus, since my call had a 35 % chance of success, or about 2:1, it was an OK call? Just a yes or no answer on that would be appreciated. As I stated in my first post, I kinda of understand the concept of pot odds, but it's when it comes down to applying it to my game and using it to make the decision that I have some hard time, especially since I don't want to take too much time making decisions at a live table.

    Oskar: when you say "he seems to have you covered", what does it mean? That my opponent knew he had a better made hand that mine, but that I was on a draw?

    By the way, after I Called his All In move, he said aloud "you've probably got AK" (before my cards were shown). If he really though that, wasn't his move a bad one since he was only on a pair of kings with probably a lower kicker than mine? Was he trying to get me to fold with his re-raise? (And maybe his cards were suited in club or spade, but anyway for the post flop decision, it didn't matter much since he had no straight nor flush draw on the board).

    Oskar: You say I had to put 130 $ to win 230 $. Are you implying that I should consider the 65 $ I raised into the flop as "still mine" when evaluating wether or not to call a re-raise (wether that be a push for all in as I had, or another kind of re-raise, for exemple if we had both had bigger stacks and he'd just retort with a 200 $ raise to my 65 $ shot)?
  5. #5
    The term he's got you covered means that he has a bigger stack than you.

    Yeah I think Oskar says that because you a trying to win some of your own money back.

    Villians raise 8$ + 3$ blinds + 3rd players call (8$) + Villians flop bet, 15$ + 3rd player fold, 0$ + your raise of 65$ - so he calls 50$. So pot of villians money (+ blinds and 3rd players call) is 84$. His all in of 130$ makes his total money in pot to 214$ and you have to call 130$ to win 214$.

    Pot odds 1.646 to 1. So if you deduct your own money its not a good call!

    Dont kill me if wrong, im soo tired.

    Strip
  6. #6
    oskar's Avatar
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    Having someone covered means to have more chips - I think by definition it means to have something like 30% more and it applies more to MTT games... If he has more than you than we don't have to know how much exactly.
    If he has more than you - you only have 130 left after your 65$ raise, so he calls 50 and raises 130 for a total pot of ~285 - sorry, I screwed that up in the previous post, you're right.

    In this case you are expected to loose 130$ 2/3 of the time and make 285$ profit 1/3 of the time.

    Another way to think of this is to take the total pot including your call, and calculate the percentage that you will win.

    If you flip a coin and both you and the villain bet 1$ - the pot is 2$ and you are going to win 50% of the time, which equals 50% of the total pot for each flip in the long run. Same can be done here.
    I don't want to give you any definite results because, you really have to understand the underlying math to make the right decition every time. It's rare that a situation is as pure as it is in your example. Usually there are a lot more variables to consider.
  7. #7
    But isn't some of the 300$ his own money, like 70$ - so it isn't really all profit?
  8. #8
    oskar's Avatar
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    I totally suck at these stupid pot calculations. I'm so spoiled by online poker, and in the casino you can always ask the dealer to spread the pot.
    I think we can all agree on the math... I don't know what you did... everything that's in the pot is not his money anymore. It only matters what he has to pay to win how much.
    I'm not tired but I suck so much at arithmetic, I can't even tell you. :P
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  9. #9
    Yeah I know its not his money,when they go in to the pot. That is one thing i will probably never get. Bc it would be say that he had already lost his 70$. Im srry i think you are actually right.

    He will win 230 like 37% of the time. And loose 130 63% of time. And in the end it shows profit.

    Could someone more gifted please take a look so i can understand it?
  10. #10
    oskar's Avatar
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    I'm not recounting this, but I'm pretty sure it's 285. I think you're making the same mistake I did earlier. You're not counting the villains call of the 50$ raise.

    But that's kind of an interesting exercise anyway, because it's so close.
    If it were 37% to win 230 for 130 more, would it be profitable?
    What if it was 34%?
    And how much do you win/loose at average each hand?
    You can actually get very close mathematically. The odds for turn and river are very close to 4 times the outs minus one
    +/- only 1, 1.5% actually.

    It's also very easy to calculate the exact probability, but for practical use this is close enough.

    Scriptclubjunkie - it doesn't matter where the money came from. It's already in there. Whether or not it was a good idea to put it in is a different calculation. At the point where your only option left is to call, all that counts is how much you have to put in to win how much at what probability.
    It doesn't even matter whether or not you are playing poker anymore. What happened before this situation is completely irrelevant for the situation itself. I hope that makes sense.

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