Trouble with value betting river

I still have trouble making bets on the river for value when scare cards come. The two players in this hand were loose calling stations and I saw them suck out runner runner more than once this session. I only had $1.78 after turn bet so I thought about betting $1 on river, but decided against it (NIT moment I guess). Is river check acceptable or is it NIT play?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5.52)
UTG ($5.55)
UTG+1 ($0.66)
MP1 ($5.67)
MP2 ($4.20)
CO ($10.09)
Button ($1.43)
Hero (SB) ($3.73)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, MP2 calls $0.05, 1 fold, Button calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($1) Q, 2, J (3 players)
Hero bets $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40, MP2 calls $0.40

Turn: ($2.20) K (3 players)
Hero bets $1.25, MP1 calls $1.25, MP2 calls $1.25

River: ($5.95) 2 (3 players)
Hero???

Total pot: $5.95 | Rake: $0.25


I feel like I'm missing out on alot of opportunities. Is this one of them? FYI, I buy in for 100BB but do not top off.

You only have $1.75 left and there's $6 in the pot. Plus more might go in. You don't have tons of equity, here, though you have more than you seem to think you do. You gotta just stick the rest in, imo.

can't we check this flop? we're OOP and it's multiway

Originally Posted by AFchung

can't we check this flop? we're OOP and it's multiway

This. Also I raise to $.35 preflop (4xbb + 1 bb for everylimper), but that's a minor thing.

The flop c-bet on that board is standard for me. From early position I only raise QQ+, AQ+. If I miss flop but flop has a K or Q I will try to rep it and fold to resistance. For me this works more times than not. I am an extremely tight player pre-flop early.

I would like opinions on how to play the river. Is the standard play in this situation a shove? So many times in the past I check down the river only to see villian with second best hand. I am missing out on a bunch of money in these situations. Problem is, when I do value bet I am not ahead.

The way I saw it, I lose to flush, str8, KQ, and KJ (last 3 hands should have revealed their strength on turn, usually). I beat KT, (QJ reveals strength on flop or turn) and smaller PP. So I checked. Is that too weak. Long run, am I missing out on money? I know how this worked out, but I'm trying not to be results oriented.

Originally Posted by AFchung

can't we check this flop? we're OOP and it's multiway

Yes, as long as it's check/call and not check/fold.

Thanks. 1 player had QT, the other had KT. Would have definitely gotten 1 caller, maybe both, but I missed out on some profits yet again. Gotta work on value bets. It is costing me.

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by AFchung

can't we check this flop? we're OOP and it's multiway

Yes, as long as it's check/call and not check/fold.

does it become c/f on the turn when we don't improve?

and when a K or A peels off, how do we really know where we're at?

Originally Posted by AFchung

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by AFchung

can't we check this flop? we're OOP and it's multiway

Yes, as long as it's check/call and not check/fold.

does it become c/f on the turn when we don't improve?

and when a K or A peels off, how do we really know where we're at?

If we check/call, we're getting 5+ to 1 pot odds and only need to win at showdown like 17% of the time to profit. You don't think we have 17% equity here?

Originally Posted by Robb

Yes, as long as it's check/call and not check/fold.

This was my thought.

Considering the board, your short stack, and the multi-way pot, I don't think a check call is bad at all here. Plus, often you'll induc some bluffs and pick up some money from players that would have folded if you bet out.

Here is another spot for me. I see BB as a tricky player willing to defend her blind.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG+1) ($4.55)
MP1 ($6.71)
MP2 ($5.92)
MP3 ($5.07)
CO ($12.21)
Button ($3.33)
SB ($5.94)
BB ($14.41)
UTG ($1.22)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.20, 6 folds, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.42) 8, 8, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB raises to $0.65, Hero raises to $1.20, BB calls $0.55

Turn: ($2.82) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.82) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $2.82 | Rake: $0.10

I've seen her defend her blind often so I couldn't rule out any hand. I thought she could easily have an 8, 5, or 76. Was my play weak or conservative / ok? I don't bet on river enough. I feel my fear of check raise is unreasonable.

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by AFchung

can't we check this flop? we're OOP and it's multiway

Yes, as long as it's check/call and not check/fold.

WAT?

I cbet, but your size is tooooo small

I'm sure it will be seen by some as weak, but I just don't see many hands (mainly smaller pocket pairs) that she could have that she'll call a bet with that you can beat.

She definitely played it like she might had a 5, straight draw or maybe an 8, but if she was bluffing, then she is going to call the river.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by AFchung

can't we check this flop? we're OOP and it's multiway

Yes, as long as it's check/call and not check/fold.

WAT?

I cbet, but your size is tooooo small

I screwed up - I read TURN not FLOP - sorry.

I don't know why you'd 3bet the flop in hand 2

Originally Posted by nibbles

I still have trouble making bets on the river for value when scare cards come.

I value-town myself too often.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I don't know why you'd 3bet the flop in hand 2

To show that I have a hand and not AK. If villain shoves I can decide if I want to believe she had an 8 and get away from the hand. I sometimes check / raise draws or small PP if I feel opponent (pre-flop raiser) missed with AK. I felt villain might make that play with air. Her reaction to my 3bet let me know where I stood. I would have bet the turn if it wasn't another 5 (or 4 or 9). I didn't want to give up control. Is that not a good long term approach? Would it be better to call her down on remaining streets?

Thanks Top. I'm trying hard not to be results oriented on this aspect of my game. I feel better knowing others see this as a reasonable non bet.

Originally Posted by nibbles

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I don't know why you'd 3bet the flop in hand 2

To show that I have a hand and not AK.

cool let's make it as easy as possible for him to play perfectly against us

Originally Posted by nibbles

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I don't know why you'd 3bet the flop in hand 2

To show that I have a hand and not AK. If villain shoves I can decide if I want to believe she had an 8 and get away from the hand. I sometimes check / raise draws or small PP if I feel opponent (pre-flop raiser) missed with AK. I felt villain might make that play with air. Her reaction to my 3bet let me know where I stood. I would have bet the turn if it wasn't another 5 (or 4 or 9). I didn't want to give up control. Is that not a good long term approach? Would it be better to call her down on remaining streets?

Thanks Top. I'm trying hard not to be results oriented on this aspect of my game. I feel better knowing others see this as a reasonable non bet.

Let me break down each of these so you can see where your thinking is going wrong.

Originally Posted by nibbles

To show that I have a hand and not AK.

As Spenda mentioned why do you want villain to know you have a hand? You actually WANT her to think you have AK so she can keep trying to bluff you.

Originally Posted by nibbles

If villain shoves I can decide if I want to believe she had an 8 and get away from the hand.

If you had an 8 and were in villains shoes how would you play this flop? Would you c/r here to represent a big hand or would you maybe c/c and work on getting villain to commit more money on the turn?

Originally Posted by nibbles

I sometimes check / raise draws or small PP if I feel opponent (pre-flop raiser) missed with AK. I felt villain might make that play with air.

Again, if you feel this is the case then why are you pushing her out of the hand when you should actually be giving her more rope to hang herself with.

Originally Posted by nibbles

I didn't want to give up control. Is that not a good long term approach? Would it be better to call her down on remaining streets?

You have a very good hand on a pretty dry board against a "tricky and defensive" opponent. Let them try to keep bluffing you off your hand till they stop then try to put them on the train to value town.

I hear you, but my hand is vulnerable. Your advice seems good if villain is running a naked bluff, but what if he is semi-bluffing? Not only did I have to worry about villain having 76, but what about A5 / K5? 2 over cards could get me. There were a bunch of scare cards against my holding, two of which came out on turn and river (but hindsight is 20/20). I' guess I'll hafta give this more thought.

Your hand isn't as vulnerable as you think it is. This is your equity against just that very small range you mention:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

46,530 games 0.047 secs 990,000 games/sec

Board: 8h 8d 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.567% 74.57% 00.00% 34696 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 25.433% 25.43% 00.00% 11834 0.00 { AKs, A5s, K5s, 76s, AKo, A5o, 76o }

If villain would call here with 50% of her hands and is capable of c/r'ing that entire range your equity is:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

528,660 games 0.063 secs 8,391,428 games/sec

Board: 8h 8d 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.719% 77.62% 00.10% 403042 515.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 22.281% 22.18% 00.10% 115182 515.50 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }


You have a ton of equity here regardless of her range.

Thanks for your replies. I appreciate reading the different ways of extracting money from opponents. FYI, in this hand, villain had 99.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Originally Posted by nibbles

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I don't know why you'd 3bet the flop in hand 2

To show that I have a hand and not AK.

cool let's make it as easy as possible for him to play perfectly against us

I agree with the big dog here. You had a good hand you have to bet it. Scared money don't make money and it sounds like you are afraid to bet anything but the nuts. Get some value on these hands You sound smart so you know when your beat and you know when to fold. GL to you at the tables. Get them Vbets in there!!!!

Here's another river situation. I did bet, but I don't think I bet enough. This was only my second hand at the table, so no reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($5.82)
Hero (SB) ($5.20)
BB ($12.81)
UTG ($9.71)
UTG+1 ($4.80)
MP1 ($3.60)
MP2 ($6.02)
MP3 ($10)
CO ($5.12)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6, A
4 folds, MP3 (poster) checks, 1 fold, Button calls $0.05, Hero calls $0.03, BB checks

Flop: ($0.20) 10, A, A (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP3 checks, Button checks

Turn: ($0.20) 6 (4 players)
Hero bets $0.05, BB raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, BB calls $0.20

River: ($1) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

Total pot: $1.80 | Rake: $0.05

I know I should have bet at LEAST half the pot, but was so concerned with making sure I got a call, I missed out on alot of value. Still learning. Better to win 50BB 80% of time than 20BB 100% of time. The thing was I didn't know if villain had an A, or a 10 and raised me cos he thought I was betting the turn 6. Game of incomplete information. Will work on it.

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by AFchung

can't we check this flop? we're OOP and it's multiway

Yes, as long as it's check/call and not check/fold.

WAT?

I cbet, but your size is tooooo small

I screwed up - I read TURN not FLOP - sorry.

whew. thought i totally missed an entirely new poker concept or something