Trouble with a nit min betting 2 streets

Everest No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Everest Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($14.03)
MP3 ($0.27)
CO ($10)
Hero (Button) ($12.61)
SB ($14.16)
BB ($6.30)
UTG ($5.90)
UTG+1 ($3.30)
MP1 ($2.23)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, A
UTG calls $0.10, 5 folds, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.35, 2 folds

Flop: ($1) Q, 2, 4 (2 players)
SB bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

Turn: ($1.20) A (2 players)
SB bets $0.10, Hero raises to $0.70, SB calls $0.60

River: ($2.60) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $1.20, Hero raises to $6.20, SB calls $5

Total pot: $15 | Rake: $1

Villain's stats - 6/3/4.0 over 528 hands

PF – Villain’s range is 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ given his VPIP

Flop - I felt justified in calling his min bet as it gives me 11 to 1 pot odds and higher implied odds to hit 2 remaining 2's or 3 remaining A's. 5 outs x 4 gives me ~20% or approximately 5 to 1 odds of hitting. His min bet put him on a range of ATs+, 88+ (not sure if I have grounds to back this up). I saw myself ahead of most of his range (if I hit an A or 2 obviously) except QQ+ and AQ.

Turn – A second min bet confused the shit out of me to be honest. I thought he could be trapping or blocking; without being sure and hitting my two pair, I raised him to about half the pot to see his response (my bet sizing may be off here). His call was even more confusing to me, giving me little info.

River – Since the turn play confused me so much and I didn’t know what to do, I went to my instincts and shoving felt right on the river, as a 5 wasn’t in his range and AA, QQ and AQ are the only three hands beating me. Now that I analyze his river value bet, it seems as if the only thing he could possibly have were hands that beat me, so this is an easy fold in hindsight. However, what should my thought process be here in case his value bet didn’t represent those 3 hands?

I'm the last guy that should be giving anyone on this site poker advice.That said,I think you got your math wrong.

2 remaining 2s and 3(not 4) remaining aces=5 outs

5 outs / 47 unknown cards = 10.6%

why is 5hxh not in his range?

Originally Posted by sil693

why is 5hxh not in his range?

called flop and turn? Did opponent chase alot?

Originally Posted by supahaole

I'm the last guy that should be giving anyone on this site poker advice.That said,I think you got your math wrong.

2 remaining 2s and 3(not 4) remaining aces=5 outs

5 outs / 47 unknown cards = 10.6%

LOL @ how dumb that mistake was. Thank you sir. Fixed it. However, it's 10.6% over one street and 21.5% over two. I just usually multiply the number of outs by 4 from the flop or 2 from turn to get a rough estimate.

Originally Posted by sil693

why is 5hxh not in his range?

Because of villain's stats. His VPIP was 6% over 500+ hands. No way he's playing anything with a 5 in it.

Fold preflop, A2o is too weak to isolate with esp. at 10NL

Flop: Either raise his donk bet as a semi-bluff, or fold. There's no reason to call with bottom pair unless you plan to bluff the turn. But probably better to semi-bluff the flop.

Originally Posted by mrchevyceleb

Fold preflop, A2o is too weak to isolate with esp. at 10NL

Flop: Either raise his donk bet as a semi-bluff, or fold. There's no reason to call with bottom pair unless you plan to bluff the turn. But probably better to semi-bluff the flop.

PF - Look at villain's VPIP stats. I'd be a moron not to steal his blinds.

Flop - I'm getting sufficient pot and implied odds so why should I fold?

Originally Posted by xpaand

PF - Look at villain's VPIP stats. I'd be a moron not to steal his blinds.

Flop - I'm getting sufficient pot and implied odds so why should I fold?

you're not stealing his blinds, you're isolating the limper trying to get in a heads up pot with him in position. It's not really a blind stealing situation as more than likely at 10NL UTG will Limp/Call a lot. A2o is such trash that its almost like an atc isolation, you have to base your plan for the hand 100% on stealing because you're never going to flop any great equity. There are tons of weak aces that beat yours in UTG's limping range.

on the flop you are only getting the implied odds if you think he'll stack off at some point. When he donks there he likely has a weak Q or a flush draw. You can really only hope to hit 2 pair or trip 2's and if that happens he's only going to stack off with hands that beat you -- if you hit 2 pair and stack off he's not likely to stack off himself with QJ or QT facing an All-In decision. But this is all kind of the reason not to play A2o in the first place.

Originally Posted by sil693

why is 5hxh not in his range?

def. not in his range he's 6/3...

Very good points mrchevy. I missed the UTG limp in my analysis lol.

On the flop, let's say he won't stack off. I still have sufficient pot odds to call don't I? QJ/QT are not in his range. I'd say on the flop, his range is 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ and if I hit 2 pair, his hands within the range that beat me are AQ, AA, QQ. In my opinion, that min bet gives me no new info to change his range from PF.

Edit:
But yeah, shoving on the river was dumb, as the only hand he would call with (that I can beat) is AK, so I'm behind his AI call range.

Originally Posted by kmind

def. not in his range he's 6/3...

even being 6/3, some nits defend blinds with drawing hands expecting a multi-way pot. I can definitely see him showing up here with 55 sometimes based on this line. or even 33 for that matter. I agree we aren't likely looking at 5Xs as he won't be playing random hands, but I wouldn't discount any pockets, or the occasional 56s (though I still don't think this should be counted in his range). based on position, depending on his play (we have no positional stats stated here) he might be more like 10% out of the blinds. The limp then raise, along with deep stacks would make playing these drawing hands more appealing. Though I think generally a 6/3 is probably multi-tabling and not gambling here,

in which case what do we beat out of his range, that he is going to call the shove on the river? Maybe AK.. As played I am c/c the river... we don't have a monster of a hand on this board.. he will fold virtually everything we beat, so notch down the aggression and flat call IMO.

A2o raise preflop seems like a positional play, don't mind this, especially with a weak limp early, though I wouldn't be surprised by a call from a polarized range there..

I agree with your flop call but not for the same reasons, I don't think we can really consider both streets when making the call, as I'm guessing he is likely to fire another bet, even if it's a min bet on the turn (which ofc. we see he did) based on his aggression factor. But calling here is still relatively even eV, when not accounting for implied odds, so you hit 2 pair, or trips on the turn, you can expect to get more.

I like the turn bet. We have a pretty strong hand here relative to the board.

Given the line, the only thing i dislike is your raise on the river. I can't see this ever being +eV. If his bet was a bluff, you win, if it wasn't.. we don't beat much that he won't fold to your shove. So I will say again, I think the river is a flat call.

I am sure this is a scatter-brained post. Oh well! hope you get something out of it.

Originally Posted by kmind

def. not in his range he's 6/3...

note to self: note villains stats