Quote Originally Posted by WarGawd
Quote Originally Posted by swiggidy
If you just consider the 5, which comes 13% of the time. An A will come 6% of the time (3 outs, one chance), plus if a non-diamond 3 or 8 comes you split the pot (about 1%).
I've re-read that about 9 times, convinced you made an error somewhere...only Player B holds the str8 draw...a non-diamond 8 or 3 gives B the win, not a chop??? Not sure that affects any conclusions drawn below though.
If the 5 comes on the turn then there are six cards that could come on the river which result in a split pot.

Quote Originally Posted by WarGawd
Quote Originally Posted by swiggidy
If you knew villain had missed overs I would count the 3 fives as 1/2 out each.).
And I think this is really what I was digging at...is it just experience that says you'd discount the 5's to 1/2 out each? Is there any more formal publicized guidance out there?
This is kind of what I was getting at above. If you analyze the situation you could determine the exact equity of a 5 by counting the hands you win vs the hands you lose.

As far as I know there is no formal guideline. This is probably because it doesn't matter that much. A five on the turn gives you 75% equity, so maybe it should be counted as 2.25 outs instead of 1.5. This extra fraction of an out increases your chances of winning by 1.5% (using the 2/4 rule). Very few (if any) decisions at the table are going to be swayed by 1.5%. If this pushes you over the boundary between folding and calling then the wrong decision is only a very small mistake.

The 2/4 rule was designed for situations where if you hit you're a sure win, if you miss you're a sure loss. When villain has redraws calculating percentages becomes more complicated. This guy has posted a lot of odds calculations, you should be able to figure it out if you want:
http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/


Quote Originally Posted by WarGawd
For the sake of discussion just for the moment let's just step back to where B is contemplating calling A's all-in push. Should B discount the diamond outs (because A could have the higher flush draw)
Read dependent. If you're in a $3 tourney and villain is a donk I may count the flush outs (discounted more heavily, like 1/4). Here I would discount it based upon his range and how likely he is without a diamond. I've played some tourney's where people push TT or A7 with no diamond. If it's mid stakes I would probably not count the diamonds. If it was higher and person was likely making a move I might count them again (discounted).

Quote Originally Posted by WarGawd
Thanx for your feedback
WarGawd
no prob, and welcome to FTR

I don't want to discourage you from analyzing the game deeper. I did the same thing when I started. It may help your understanding which may indirectly help you at the table. But being able to do this exact calculation won't really help your game (which is why I'm reluctant to put more thought into it ).