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Re: TPTK Live Hand
What was your line from flop-river with the Q9o hand?
Anyway, in this hand you said there was a limper - so if villain has been paying attention a bit he would have noticed you raising the Q9o hand into the straddle. (You said he doesn't fold his cards out of turn preflop, so I think we can assume that he is paying close enough attention to the game that he's aware of how we are playing).
He has reason to become suspicous that your hand isn't that strong and that an isolation raise with a marginal hand is a big part of your range in this spot, so he decides to call - possibly lighter than usual (perhaps with some type of suited connector) because he may be hoping to take the pot away from you on a later street. Again, he appears to be paying attention, so he may be on a high enough level to play his opponents a bit rather than just his cards.
Now you said this guy bought in for only half-max, AND he didn't even raise preflop out of position with pocket kings... IMO these are just big tip-offs that he's playing with scared money, but he may not be, just a thought. He appears to like to see a flop before he starts gambling given his loose/passive preflop style. From what I've seen almost anyone playing scared is limping>raising preflop.
If he is this risk averse, whenever he bluffs he will probably try to bet the lowest amount he can get away with - so I think you have a valid point about the min-raise being a bluff alot of the time. Would we expect his bluffing frequency to become greater as you are claiming the image of running over the table? I think he would probably start bluffing more if he thinks you're isolating with trashy hands if he's again capable of playing beyond what he holds.
I'd call the min-raise, let him bet the turn, and then throw a c/r back to him on any blank that he bets. If he shoves over you're likely toast. If he flat calls I think you might be looking at a weaker ace, I mean, if we assume he's playing with scared money would he not want to protect his set on the turn against the draw if he has it? (Now back to how he played the KK hand, what was his line on getting his stack in here?). I think how he played that hand may be a key hint at what he's got here. Like you said, you suspect he's on a bluff. I think your line will be based somewhat on how he got his money in with his set earlier. We might be able to rule out a set if things don't add up, and weigh either a bluff or a weaker ace (perhaps a chop), as a larger portion of his continuing range. I suppose a flush draw could be in there too.
If we check/raise the turn, and end up showing down our hand, would this have us getting called down lighter when we check/raise? Thus, if we did this again but with a set, we'd likely win a stack if someones holding top/top - but we'd have to tone the aggression down probably and camp a bit since if we're c/r'ing with just a pair, we're probably betting alot with garbage.
If we don't show the hand down, we can continue running the table over because no one will want to mess with us after we've demonstrated that we will c/r someone after they've raised into us on the flop. You may be able to instill the thought that you won't accept being played back at with a c/r on the turn, and this might cause your opponent to bluff you less, so you can continue running him over along with the rest.
Sorry if my respsonse is bad and full of lots of errors or misjudgements. It isn't intended to be instructional. I'm just trying to lay out my thoughts and have others show me where my thinking may be off. Please comment, thanks.
-Micro
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