TPTK AI 10NL... EV?

Here's a situation that happened to me yesterday at 10NL FR, having just joined the table:

3 limpers have limped around to me in the BB, I get AKo. I raise to 5BB, 2 limpers fold, and the middle of the three call.

Flop: A 10 2 rainbow.

I make a standard c-bet of 80% of the pot, and the limp-caller pushes for 1.5x the pot. I call, he shows ATo.

In the short term, of course, I made the wrong move by calling, but I've seen exactly the same line taken by a lot of hands, including all Ax's, PPs down to 88, etc.

Assuming we're readless, is calling the AI with TPTK +EV in the long term? I'm not sure, because generally the push means they've hit 2pair+, but like I said, I've regularly stacked people with A2o doing exactly the same thing.

Cheers.

don't get AI with TPTK unless you've seen that specific opponent do it with less than TPTK

In 10 NL if you've seen any sort of hand where he overvalued top pair at all then you can call.

Otherwise it's a fold.

I call.

At $10 NL that's a call all day long. You will beat A5 a lot more than you see a set.

Originally Posted by sejje

I call.

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

At $10 NL that's a call all day long. You will beat A5 a lot more than you see a set.

guys don't tell him this. he will form bad habits. you shouldn't play hands based on stakes alone.

I understand your point very much. However, if he folds to every raise or push he sees at that stake, he will lose out on value to the dork who plays Ax like the nuts.

If I understand the betting right, calling is +EV if you think there is at least a 30% chance he has junk that you beat.

Lets work in whole numbers for simplicity. Blinds 1/2, limpers bet 2, 2, 2, SB folds, Hero raises 8 to 10, limper folds, Villian calls, limper folds. Pot is 25, Hero bets 20. Villian raises 45 to 65 and is all-in. Pot is now 110, Hero is getting 2.5 to 1 to call 45.

Ignoring the possibility of him having two pair and you hitting your kicker to win, looking at this strictly from a "he has it" or "he doesn't" standpoint.

If you call.....
If he has it, you lose 45
If he doesn't, you gain 110

If he has 2 pair or better 70% of the time, and Ax/pp junk 30% of the time, the equation looks like this

(0.30 * 110) + (0.70 * -45) = 33 - 31.5 = +1.5

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

I understand your point very much. However, if he folds to every raise or push he sees at that stake, he will lose out on value to the dork who plays Ax like the nuts.

If he pays attention he will soon pick up on whose raises he can call.

If he pays attention he will also pick up on whos raises he should fold to. But before he does that he will lose value if he doesn't base his decisions against the avarage opponent at the stakes.

i still think getting AI every time at 10NL is -EV and forms bad habits.

Cheers guys.

At the moment, I struggle to pay attention due to the fact that I've usually got 6 10NL tables going, maybe I should slow down for a bit and try to get reads.

Martin, I appreciate the warnings, but I do realise that when I move up in a few months I will have to completely refresh my game, as at the moment, I'm just playing like a bot and making money at it. I do reckon I'm aware enough not to form idiotic habits. I personally feel that it's more profitable to play 6 tables of readless poker than 2 tables of aware poker, due to the sheer number of donks around, and I'm aware that this will change as I move up.

Anyway, cheers for the responses, I'm not quite at the level where I can calculate things like that myself, I'm sure it'll come soon.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

i still think getting AI every time at 10NL is -EV and forms bad habits.

Possibly, but I think folding here loses a lot of value, and winning poker is about maximizing value.

Maybe I should make a disclaimer saying that this is not proper at higher stakes...certainly it's not. But this situation, I call that all day and make a bundle doing it.

Originally Posted by Ash256

I make a standard c-bet of 80% of the pot, and the limp-caller pushes for 1.5x the pot.

was he short-stacked? if so then call this every time. sorry for the confusion everyone.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Ash256

I make a standard c-bet of 80% of the pot, and the limp-caller pushes for 1.5x the pot.

was he short-stacked? if so then call this every time. sorry for the confusion everyone.

45BB before the hand started.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

i still think getting AI every time at 10NL is -EV and forms bad habits.

As a longtime player of 10NL you are 50% right. Yes, it forms bad habits as I am now trying very hard to fold TPTK against unknowns and showing of strength. But with the sort of shit you see at 10NL everyday, it is +EV to get it AI heads up against an unknown with TPTK.

I've only played the 10nl for 1500 hands, but I see Ax do this all the time. I'm not advocating to do it, but I think I will.