TP2k 3 streets? sizing? 25nl FR

villain is 37-11 over small sample of about 30 hands. No reads beyond stats. Sizing on all streets?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($20)
MP3 ($9.69)
CO ($24.80)
Button ($20.30)
SB ($24.40)
BB ($19.16)
Hero (UTG) ($44.43)
UTG+1 ($25)
MP1 ($10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q
Hero bets $0.85, 4 folds, CO calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 8, 7, A (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.05) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO calls $4

River: ($13.05) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $??,

Just target all his Ax combos and bet like 11.50, he folds most other shit usually if he hasn't already and I doubt he folds Ax for this sorta bet.

i go $10.5 on river. flop+turn look good.

I'd go 7.5 & call a shove, figuring I get called by AJ, AT & A9, 2p+ shoves (78s, A8s, A7s, 77, 88), hopefully along with some missed straight draws due to my weak bet. But perhaps I'm missing value here.

$11ish sounds about right

@DanAronG I think villain will more likely call with worse than jam with worse

6-8

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

$11ish sounds about right

@DanAronG I think villain will more likely call with worse than jam with worse

Maybe, but what are you putting him on? We really want at least AT & A9 to put some more in the put, I certainly don't see A6 calling 11 bucks. If we had AK it would be a lot better as we also get value from AQ. As it stands, I think much more than half pot is giving you AJ at best.

Villain looks to be loose passive, although it is over a small sample. Villain can have a number of Ax hands that will call simply because they have tp and can't fold. Oh and btw, I think bet/call river is spew.

So you'd bet $11 and fold to a $7 shove into a now $42 pot?

9-11 sounds about right.

Yes, I'm b/f all the way. I don't expect to be jammed on the river very often and when he does he's never bluffing. We get to maximize value against the loose passive enough of the time to make up for the times we get jammed on. I think the range you gave villain to be calling is probably too tight and I think he's probably calling with any Ax. If this is a reg I'd probably b/f ~half, but against a fish it's okay to be exploitable.

interesting, i like $8 but consensus seems to be that it's too small. is this based on just trying to get max value and if he's calling $8 then he's calling $10.50?

if he's calling $10.50 with worse, just jam it all in?

There seems to be a big mental hurdle for people to call overbets that aren't just slightly over pot. Like our jam would be 1.5x psb, which I think would be called much less often in comparison to a psb.

Sizing is really just maximizing value against the fish. I mean, if you're not taking his money, somebody else will. Might as well try to take it first.

A drooler is never folding an Ace here so I'd like pot size then but the given villain is bad but not a total retard so 6-8 gets him calling with all those worse hands he has here

If we bet 10-11 it puts the thought in his mind to fold whereas for 6-8 he just doesn't ever fold

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

6-8

you are missing so much value by not betting larger here

it doesnt matter if hes a total retard or not, hes a fish if he has an ace no matter how good of a fish he is, he's calling.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

you are missing so much value by not betting larger here

it doesnt matter if hes a total retard or not, hes a fish if he has an ace no matter how good of a fish he is, he's calling.

this, big leak!

I bow to the knowledge of both of you - you are clearly better than I but I have worked on this and just don't agree. Maybe it's my mindset as a FR player and you as both primarily 6max but only the droolers call the river bet of 11 but it looks like I'm off to pot bet every river!

The reg will call 11$ because he'll put you on missed bd fd, 9T, 56.

The fish will call 11$ because he has TP

Also, combinatrix wise, this guy is playing a hell of a lot more Ax combos than he is 7x or 8x combos. Seriously, even if he calls more often to $8 than $11, you're still losing money vs his range as a whole.

I don't believe FR skill set is as high as 6max so I'm not convinced that there are enough players barelling 3 streets with any frequency like they should and def not at 25nl but clearly my bet size is too small so thanks for clarity

i bet the river too small and he snapped it off with AT
$11 sounds good