Cool, thanks daven. That explanation makes sense to me and thinking more about it I feel like raising the flop or not comes down to reads. In this case we don't have good enough reads one way or the other in order to be confident that our choice for raising/not raising is definitely correct.

Sooo, I feel like we should have a basic assumption here about most players with his stats and we should go with our assumption. For example, let's say 70% of players at these limits with stats like his are likely to call a flop raise with those hands we mentioned. 30% are likely to fold. Therefore our assumption should be that he'll call with worse hands and that raising the flop is good. We operate under this assumption until he proves to us that he's one of the 30%.

I haven't logged a huge amount of hands at 25NL, but just based on my gut feeling I would lean towards making the assumption that more players with his stats are capable of folding worse hands than are likely to call.

Comments on this?