TP Makes Weak Boat OTR; Facing Shove

This is another "Wot's his Range" question

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($5.58) 56bb
CO ($10.72) 107bb
BTN ($12.02) 120bb
DoubleJ (SB) ($10.05) 101bb
BB ($12.69) 127bb - VPIP:17, PFR:13, 3B:0, AF:1.7, Hands:23

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) DoubleJ is SB
3 folds, DoubleJ raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

Villain is tight has folded BB to 3 of 4 steals; he defended the other by calling. He may have me pegged as a serial stealer.

Because I am.

i 3x and he calls. Can i put him on {22+,A3s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,A8o+, K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o}? What would he 3Bet here?

Flop: ($0.60, 2 players)
DoubleJ bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

I flop TP and bet. He calls again. My cBet% is ~75 (not sure what this was on the day though), but i'd-a thought that with a board this draw-y, he be raising big PPs, TPs and Trips. Yes? No?

Turn: ($1.40, 2 players)
DoubleJ bets $0.90, BB calls $0.90

..and now it's even more draw-y

River: ($3.20, 2 players)
DoubleJ bets $3, BB raises to $10.24, DoubleJ calls $5.45

My TP now boats-up, i bet to get value from 22-JJ and 6x, and he shoves over. I need to be good 27+% of the time and am losing to only Tx and QQ+ so i call.

Your thoughts on his range for each street, please

I would rather c/r this river. The board is SO drawy and everything bricks and it's a spot ppl wouldn't expect a check so they will bet. The most likely hand that will call, will also bet when you check.

This is also a perfect spot to c/bomb Tx if we had it.

Also good to note that this is a horrible spot to be bluff jamming, so we will rarely be bluffing so it's ok to be checking the strongest parts of our range here.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I would rather c/r this river. The board is SO drawy and everything bricks and it's a spot ppl wouldn't expect a check so they will bet. The most likely hand that will call, will also bet when you check.

This is also a perfect spot to c/bomb Tx if we had it.

OK, thanks griffey - this is something (else) i need to be working on then.

Back to OP:- Your thoughts on his range for each street, if'n u don't mind...

What's his 3b pre? Will influence his range a lot probably.

Originally Posted by griffey24

What's his 3b pre? Will influence his range a lot probably.

Stats in OP. 3Bet = 0% but i've only got 23 hands on him....

I think the chances of him having Tx are slim to none here due to the fact he never raised the flop or turn. There's only 1 combo of QQ so that speaks for itself plus the fact he would 3-bet it pre-flop a large % of the time.

I think his range is weighted heavily towards Qx but he could show up with Tx a fraction of the time. Don't know if villain is spewy enough to jam this with a bricked draw. You'd have to have seen him do some crazy shit to even start to consider he may be bluffing here.

In spots where tons of draws miss on the river and you have a strong hand, at least consider checking as a part of your default thought process. Come post some hands in the FTR CHAT ROOM (no download needed) of spots where you're considering a check on the river under similar circumstances.