Tough spot with set (25NL)

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG+1 ($70.20)
MP1 ($27.20)
MP2 ($63.55)
MP3 ($12.70)
CO ($28.40)
Button ($49.50)
SB ($13.25)
Hero (BB) ($71.95)
UTG ($35.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 5
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.10) J, 5, 9 (4 players)
Hero bets $0.50, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4, UTG+1 raises to $10.50, Hero calls $6.50

Turn: ($22.10) A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $22.10, Hero folds

Total pot: $22.10 | Rake: $1.10

Villain runs 12/0/1.5. I decide not to raise pre flop on the assumption that I am offered a free flop to hit a set. When I hit resistance (from what is normally a tight/passive player according to stats I start worrying. Since we're so deep I fear a bigger set so I simply call to re-evaluate.

He goes on and bets the pot on the turn which I think means I'm beat, but I'm simply not sure.

How did he get his stack?

You have to start building a pot with such a strong hand on the flop so lead our near pot since there are a unch of players in there and many draws. You want to get worse hands getting allin with you so get the money in asap. Keep raising and get your money allin on the flop! As played you have to fold.

Originally Posted by swiggidy

How did he get his stack?

He beat TPTK with AA a few hands before.

Originally Posted by killerkebab

Originally Posted by swiggidy

How did he get his stack?

He beat TPTK with AA a few hands before.

So he was already 1.5 BB deep? Did he get it in on the flop? If he thinks an overpair is the nuts super easy stackoff on the flop.

It is a 200BB table. The guy he beat before didn't have that much though

Originally Posted by killerkebab

Since we're so deep I fear a bigger set so I simply call to re-evaluate..

sounds as though you shouldn't be playing 200bb deep. Buy in for 100bb, and consider leaving if you get deep.
As played, hmmm. 12-0 over how many hands? Your read is that he stacks off with overpairs. You have a set. 100bb this is easy shove.
Also, bet flop harder. 3-bet flop harder. Don't call the 4-bet unless you want to play for stacks.

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by killerkebab

Since we're so deep I fear a bigger set so I simply call to re-evaluate..

sounds as though you shouldn't be playing 200bb deep. Buy in for 100bb, and consider leaving if you get deep.
As played, hmmm. 12-0 over how many hands? Your read is that he stacks off with overpairs. You have a set. 100bb this is easy shove.
Also, bet flop harder. 3-bet flop harder. Don't call the 4-bet unless you want to play for stacks.

Sorry you're probably right. He was 12/0 over about 100 hands, so at this point I was pretty sure he'd limp anything that isn't a total monster. His 3bet was 0% and since he stacked off with AA earlier (and my stats still said 0%) implies he'll even limp with that.

Since his stats also indicate he's quite passive postflop, his huge aggression made me pause and I started thinking of all the things he could have here. After doing a quick stove with a worst case scenario range (99,JJ+,AcXc - though nut flush draws wouldn't be that aggressive, would they? Maybe QcTc) it turns out that I was still a clear favourite (as much as 70%) and that I should have shoved as soon as he raised me that last time on the flop.

Thanks for the help guys, unless I'm missing something I think I have this one straight in my head.