Tough river decision $10NL

Posted this in my operation thread but figured to post it here as well as I think it's an interesting spot and would love to see opinions on the hand as I think either of the choices on the river are valid.

Villain is 16/16/6 over only 25 hands, so really no read on them. On the turn I checked behind as the board was so co-ordinated to his range I dind't want to get c/r'd and have to fold rather than see the river and re-evaluate. On the river I tanked down to 2 seconds on timebank before making the call but the problem I have is I can't explain why I made the call and I think that is a problem....only reasonable explanation I can make is that I thought my turn check may have induced a bluff shove.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($10)
SB ($4.50)
BB ($20.85)
UTG ($10.40)
MP ($0.80)
Hero (CO) ($18.20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
UTG raises $0.30, MP calls $0.30, Hero raises $1.10, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.80, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.65) J, 6, 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.50, UTG calls $2.50

Turn: ($7.65) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($7.65) 10 (2 players)
UTG bets $6.80 (All-In), Hero calls $6.80

Total pot: $21.25

If we checked behind here on the turn I think we're getting shoved into alot on the river and without much information on the opponent it would be pretty tough to assign a range. The river is pretty sick, it's hard to believe your ahead here.

I'd bet the turn here because there are just so many outs against your hand that you almost can't call a bet on the river because the card that comes is going to screw you out of getting much extra value. I'd then check the river if checked over to me and take a showdown.

Then again villian did call your 3-bet...so AK, AQ, maybe AJ, AA-TT, and maybe KQs or something could all be in there, and they all connect really well with the board, so I can understand your reasoning for checking behind to control the pot size, it just really sucks we are facing a shove on this river because it's obviously not what we were hoping for.

Yeah, my main thoughts on possible ranges nearly all had me crushed.

AQ, JJ, TT, JT, KJ, KT, QT, 66, 89cc all have me beat and I am only ahead of AK and KQ.

The question on the river came down to if my check on the turn was enough of an indicator of weakness that villain would be able to shove with AK/KQ/air or if it was just a pot-sized value bet

Originally Posted by Knytestorme

Yeah, my main thoughts on possible ranges nearly all had me crushed.

AQ, JJ, TT, JT, KJ, KT, QT, 66, 89cc all have me beat and I am only ahead of AK and KQ.

The question on the river came down to if my check on the turn was enough of an indicator of weakness that villain would be able to shove with AK/KQ/air or if it was just a pot-sized value bet

Yeah because he's basically unknown we don't really know what river shoves mean yet. So to hopefully avoid it we could bet the turn and cross our fingers that this guy checks the river to us so we can check behind and get it there cheaper than if we call a shove on the river.

If we get donked into on the river we're usually looking at a strong hand since most players don't get too far out of line on the river especially if they are tight. Although after betting the turn, we may have odds to call a river shove anyway. It kinda blows because betting the turn almost forces a call on the river, whereas checking the turn just makes a really difficult call on the river.

I play full ring so I'm not sure how spazzy players get by the river in 6-max, but usually when facing a shove from a standard player on the river you're looking at strength more often than garbage.

One other thing to note is that if I bet the turn it's going to effectively be a shove anyway since he has less than a psb behind at this stage.

Yeah, this is just an overall really shitty board for aces. By betting the turn you could hope he will check the river over so you could check behind, but that probably isn't happening if he's interested at all in the pot. It looks like you might be beat on the turn anyway so I can see why you checked back.

shove the turn, jesus
if he has a hand like AK the river card might scare him into folding "I KNOW HE HAS SPADES"
and I see QQ call a turn shove because he thinks you're "repping" that king or something

i don't think i would shove the turn but i'd definitely bet again despite the fact that i'm rather concerned about a cold call on the flop... checking the turn in this situation is giving up the pot in the river imo...

Does everyone here realize that on the turn you have less than a PSB left? I mean, for everyone saying to bet the turn, what betsizing do you guys advocate using?

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Does everyone here realize that on the turn you have less than a PSB left? I mean, for everyone saying to bet the turn, what betsizing do you guys advocate using?

Let's just min bet and hope we tilt our opponent into shoving a weaker hand into us.

wow i never realized that... lol...

in that case i'd shove for sure then... disregard my last post about not really shoving cause i was assuming we still have a decent stack...

With people saying to push the turn, aren't we really in a wa/wb situation here and a push will only get called by better hands?

I guess I can try to do some EV calculations here, feel free to correct me here is need be

Firstly some assumptions:
* He's raised every hand he's played so far and at 16% range I'd say he's likely playing 77+, KJs+
* Since he called the 3-bet we can adjust his range to the upper end of his range so let's say TT+, AJ+

On the turn there is $7.65 in the pot, $6.80 left behind so

EV(f) = -$7.65

If we push there is ~10% chance he'll fold (likely fold AJ/AK/AQ) and 90% chance he'll call and be ahead with us drawing dead

EV(push) = 0.1*($7.65 + $6.80) - 0.9*($7.65 + $6.80 + $6.80)
= $1.445 - $19.125
= -$17.68

If we check behind and then get pushed on on the river he could be pushing with the bottom end of his range and air so we could be up to 30% equity

EV(push) = 0.3*($7.65 + $6.80 + $6.80) - 0.7*($7.65 + $6.80 + $6.80)
= $6.375 - $14.875
= -$8.50

So I guess from that, with the assumptions in place, the best option would be to c/f the turn or call the river shove but not to shove the turn ourselves.

Looking at my calcs though I think something could be wrong....should I add in the extra $6.80 to the EV(f) calc for his turn shove since it would be added to the pot before I make my decision? And should we modify the f calculation to take into account he could be pushing with second-best hand/air in the same manner as I did for the river decision?

Put 16% of hands into pokerstove and tell me what it gives you. If it's 77+, KJs+ I will literally curl one on out my own chest.

Note: Pokerstove tip for all, you can type percentages into pokerstove and it will convert the percentage into the appropriate range (altho obv this will not be 100% accurate since all villains are different, it will give you an idea of what sort of hands they might be raising).