Top Set OOP on Mono Flop, Multiway

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

It's probably worth noting that if they both call, then as long as you have more than 33% equity, your flop bet for value was +EV.

You only need 50%+ equity for a value bet to be +EV in a vacuum if you're facing one opponent. Against n calls, you need 1/(n+1) equity. For example, against 3 calls, you need 1/4 = 25%+ equity.

Thanks spoon; this is great stuff

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

If you were to lead the flop, I can't imagine a scenario where either of these players is going to have a calling range that is ahead of you.

so what would UTG be calling with here?

if we go with the AA-88,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s PF range (do we?), that gives him 160 total combos, of which (OTF):-

9 Nut Flushes
6 non-Nut Flushes
1 baby Flush

15 Overpair + FD combos
15 Overpairs

6 TopPairs
6 88
6 Weak Pairs

12 Nut Flush Draws
18 Non-Not Flush Draws

3 OESDs

i'da thought a sizable lead would rep a lot of strength, and fold out his TopPairs, 88, Weak Pairs, OESDs and non-drawing Overpairs. Yes? No?

Which leaves him continuing with:-

9 Nut Flushes
6 non-Nut Flushes
1 baby Flush

15 Overpair + FD combos

12 Nut Flush Draws
18 Non-Not Flush Draws

or 36% or his holdings. OK so far?

EDIT: these are holdings i think he's either calling w/ or raising for value. ah huvnae included any bluffs. is this a mistake?