Top pair vs. interesting minraise

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($96.85)
MP1 ($68.55)
MP2 ($20.50)
CO ($20.70)
Button ($86.95)
SB ($122.50)
BB ($52.95)
Hero (UTG) ($50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, J
Hero bets $2, 3 folds, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50

Most of the players to my left were pretty tight and I was fairly sure I wouldn't get 3bet much, so I thought it was alright to open with this. CO calls a lot (28/2ish).

Flop: ($8.25) 2, A, Q (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, 1 fold, Button raises $10, 1 fold,

I figured CO is calling with a lot of hands I beat, or I may get one of the others to follow with a draw or a weaker ace. Unfortunately, he folds and the button decides to minraise. He is 18/9 over about 250 hands, has aggresion on the flop of 2.4, and has folded to a cbet only 1 out of 6 times before this.

I have trouble trying to figure out what he takes this line with. I can see 22, AQ, or A2 trying to suck me in. AK seems unlikely given preflop but not impossible. I don't think other Ax hands would do this. I don't know if I should include two high clubs because it seems too weird, but if enough clubs are in there I start to have the equity to stay in. I'd still be stuck guessing out of position though.

Pre-flop is fine. Put your opponent on a range, decide how he plays that range if you 3-bet or call, and decide if either of those options are +EV.

Pretty standard FD line imo. He's probably 3betting AQ+ on the button so unless he slowplayed something like AA AQ or QQ the only hands that are beating you right now are A2 and 22 as far as I see it.

what spoon said, chuck out a range.

pre-flop is fine to either fold or open. Flop you say that he's only folded to a c-bet 1/6, but i'd like to know if he typically calls or raises here.

wihout more info i fold. Mostly cos calling raises oop sucks arse. And when you do what spoon suggested it becomes pretty easy. So give it a go. Here's a pessimistic one from me: 22/AJs/AQ/AK/A2s/KcJc/KcTc/TcJc. If he's raising a lot of c-bets then i'll widen it some. Mostly i think this is going to be AQ, even if there are only 6 combos available.

Originally Posted by Donachello

Pretty standard FD line imo.

what flush draws does he have exactly, given that the flush ace is on the board

And the flush queen. So that's KcJc, JcTc, Tc9c - or lower. Not completely impossible seeing as he knew he was going into a multiway pot (CO had already called) - not good because CO is short (40bb) - not bad because both BTN and Hero are deep (near 200bb). BTN with stats of 18/9 seems to call more than is generally recommended so may play hands passively preflop. No 3bet stats are indicated so no reason to rule out QQ either.

All that said: I read a post on 2+2 a half year ago about min-raising. The summary was that they ran some statistics on more than 1000 hands that saw a min-raise. One observation was that min-raisers are normally showdown bound. In fact out of hundreds of hands that ended before the showdown only one (less than 1%) of hands saw the min-raiser fold later in the hand to a bet. Point being... well two fold.

If you think your opponent may be min-raising without being pot committed and without it being a pot sweetener - you may be wrong. So it may actually not be a standard line with flush draws.

If you think my vagueish memory of what some analysis may have reached in terms of conclusions is nothing to go by - you have a database of poker hands yourself surely? Filter for min-raise actions (on any street) and run some analsis on the sample to see if you have similar conclusions at your limit/site/etc.