Took a shot at 25NL

BR got up to $650 so I decided to take a shot. I decided that if I got down to $450 I'd drop back down to 10NL. Only 8BIs but I figured anything more and I'd get money scared which I did at about $470.

I lasted 3500 hands.
My stats for those 3500 hands (not a big sample I know) are almost identical to my 10NL stats.

Back to the grind...

I didn't notice that much difference in 10NL and 25NL.

I feel your pain.

Originally Posted by Sasquach991

Only 8BIs but I figured anything more and I'd get money scared which I did at about $470.

Only 8 BIs? How is a roll of $650 only 8 BIs? Am I missing something?

And congrats on taking your shot. At least now you have a better idea of how 25NL is and next time you won't get as money scared. Little by little my friend...good job!

He's saying he gave himself an 8 buy-in cushion at 25nl, so $200 (from $650 to $450). To OP, move back down and crush 10nl until you're rolled for 25nl again. Wash, rinse, repeat until you make the necessary adjustments to beat the next level. Go get 'em.

I say get $750, a full 30 buy-ins for $25NL, and when you move up, don't think of it as "taking a shot". Think of it as "moving up because you're ready". If you lose a full 10 buy-ins and drop to $500, then go back to $10NL and build it back up to maybe $875, 35 buy-ins, and try to learn from what you did wrong the last time you were @ that level and try again.

Never move up until you have at least 30 buy-ins. Anything less than that IS "taking a shot" and not optimal poker. Once you fall, add a few more buy-ins to give yourself even more cushion and chance to succeed. Eventually you'll either make it or come to the conclusion you can't UNTIL you break down some kind of barrier.

Good luck!

If I had to guess I'd say 10-15% of the poker playing population has enough success in their first attempt to move up to stay at the higher level.

Learn from the experience and you'll be better for it.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

If I had to guess I'd say 10-15% of the poker playing population has enough success in their first attempt to move up to stay at the higher level.

Learn from the experience and you'll be better for it.

I always have a downswing when I move up :O
or I have an upswing, but I make crap for money because I play bad

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

If I had to guess I'd say 10-15% of the poker playing population has enough success in their first attempt to move up to stay at the higher level.

Learn from the experience and you'll be better for it.

does this generally mean the same 10-15% move up and stay up each level they get to and if you have shots at one level you are more likely to be having shots at other levels too or is it more a reflection of how much you learn at each level as to whether you are actually ready for the next level up.

Well certainly skill level means a lot, some people just aren't ready to move up to the next level but their bankroll tells them to do so.

However, a lot of it just boils down to running good/bad. How many times have you moved up and in the first 2k hands run KK into AA or had a set lose to a flush draw or have someone flop a big hand in a 3bet pot?

In my experience, table selection is extremely important when playing at new stakes. I rail the players at the new stakes and make sure my edge is so significant when sitting down that the probability of a downswing is minimized.

Getting a good start at the new stakes is so important for confidence/BR that I do everything in my power to ensure success. I have never moved down in levels.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

....
However, a lot of it just boils down to running good/bad. How many times have you moved up and in the first 2k hands run KK into AA or had a set lose to a flush draw or have someone flop a big hand in a 3bet pot?

Above is exactly what happened.

My 3bet AA or KK got setted with small pp many times. I did not win any pots with AA or KK unless they all folded pf. I got one flopped set in 3500 hands.

I had planned to move up at $750 but I was running 20bb/100 hands so I figured I'd go for it.

I will wait until $750 or more the next time.

We often move up on a big upswing (make that final push to our goal) only to have variance nutpunch us as soon as we move up. My shot at 25NL was during a 20K hand mostly breakeven/barely profit stretch so I was "due" for some positive variance and got it when I moved up.

If you feel you're skilled enough, I would still suggest you move up at $650. Making an extra hundred at 10NL is a lot of work, and if you stick you'll be glad you didn't wait.

I guess different folks, different strokes, but in my opinion, you are never "due" in poker. You cannot use the past to predict the future as far as probability is concerned. Variance is always variance. It can seem random, seem like an upswing, seem like a downswing, or whatever shape you think it looks like in the past, but that characterization has no bearing on the future - your play might, but luck does not.

Also, for any player who thinks making an extra hundred @ 10NL is a lot of work, then maybe that player isn't ready to move up. That's the thing about level jumping: if you are actually beating a level and ready to move up, winning 10 buy-ins should not seem like a big deal. If it DOES seem like a big deal, then you have to question if you're really beating the level. If there is a hint of emotional hurdle from trying to win 10 buy-ins @ $10NL, how will that same player react after dropping just 4 buy-ins @ $25NL (aka 10 buy-ins @ $10NL)?

I guess this does relate to another idea we may have been skirting around. I've been advocating moving up when a player has 30 buy-ins or more, but that's not entirely true. I think you ALSO need to have a reasonably good win rate of at least 4bb/100 or 2ptBB/100 and preferably more. Because technically if you're just slightly a winner and it takes you a year or more playing tens of thousands of hands to get the bankroll to move up, then you're probably destined to fail if you move up. I think there should be a familiarity, comfort, and confidence based on real past results that you can beat the level you're @ BEFORE you move up. If you're lacking that confidence and ability and ESPECIALLY if you're lacking the bankroll to go with it, success will be a major dog when you move up.

I took my first 25nl attempt when my bankroll was ~$625. It failed for the most part and after my bankroll got below $500 because of 25nl and some random tournaments I decided to go back to 10nl. Took a second attempt when i was up to $750 and it was looking pretty fail, but I seemed to have got things together now. Basically don't give up is what I am trying to say. Bad stretches happen to all of us. Graph of said conquest is below obviously.

Originally Posted by Sasquach991

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

....
However, a lot of it just boils down to running good/bad. How many times have you moved up and in the first 2k hands run KK into AA or had a set lose to a flush draw or have someone flop a big hand in a 3bet pot?

Above is exactly what happened.

My 3bet AA or KK got setted with small pp many times. I did not win any pots with AA or KK unless they all folded pf. I got one flopped set in 3500 hands.

I had planned to move up at $750 but I was running 20bb/100 hands so I figured I'd go for it.

I will wait until $750 or more the next time.

Part of this isn't running bad though and was my problem when I first moved to 25nl too. 3betting AA or KK preflop with deep stacks still gives your opponents the correct odds to set hunt if they know you'll pay them off with your entire stack when they hit. I went on a downswing my first 1,000 hands @ 25nl because I didn't check behind on the turn when in position with tptk or an overpair and I had already given away the strength of my hand. I was winning a lot of small pots with AA, KK, QQ, AK (when the set didn't come or everyone folded preflop) and losing some big ones (when the the opponent did hit his set). Pot control is an important asset. Review your entire 25nl stint and learn as much as you can from it. See if this was a big problem for you too.

Now the one set in 3,500 hands is just variance. That will turn around and will give you many profitable spots to get your bankroll back.

Originally Posted by okiman

Originally Posted by Sasquach991

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

....
However, a lot of it just boils down to running good/bad. How many times have you moved up and in the first 2k hands run KK into AA or had a set lose to a flush draw or have someone flop a big hand in a 3bet pot?

Above is exactly what happened.

My 3bet AA or KK got setted with small pp many times. I did not win any pots with AA or KK unless they all folded pf. I got one flopped set in 3500 hands.

I had planned to move up at $750 but I was running 20bb/100 hands so I figured I'd go for it.

I will wait until $750 or more the next time.

Part of this isn't running bad though and was my problem when I first moved to 25nl too. 3betting AA or KK preflop with deep stacks still gives your opponents the correct odds to set hunt if they know you'll pay them off with your entire stack when they hit. I went on a downswing my first 1,000 hands @ 25nl because I didn't check behind on the turn when in position with tptk or an overpair and I had already given away the strength of my hand. I was winning a lot of small pots with AA, KK, QQ, AK (when the set didn't come or everyone folded preflop) and losing some big ones (when the the opponent did hit his set). Pot control is an important asset. Review your entire 25nl stint and learn as much as you can from it. See if this was a big problem for you too.

Now the one set in 3,500 hands is just variance. That will turn around and will give you many profitable spots to get your bankroll back.

This is exactly what happened. I kept firing on every street with TPTK or an overpair and would get called. The times I did check the turn, villlian would half pot bet (or less) and I would call. I guess I was assuming the 3bet calls were QQ+ and not considering set mining. This is a big difference in 25NL. In 10NL 3bets are usually only called with KK+ and sometimes QQ.

Originally Posted by Jason

I guess different folks, different strokes, but in my opinion, you are never "due" in poker. You cannot use the past to predict the future as far as probability is concerned. Variance is always variance. It can seem random, seem like an upswing, seem like a downswing, or whatever shape you think it looks like in the past, but that characterization has no bearing on the future - your play might, but luck does not.

Also, for any player who thinks making an extra hundred @ 10NL is a lot of work, then maybe that player isn't ready to move up. That's the thing about level jumping: if you are actually beating a level and ready to move up, winning 10 buy-ins should not seem like a big deal. If it DOES seem like a big deal, then you have to question if you're really beating the level. If there is a hint of emotional hurdle from trying to win 10 buy-ins @ $10NL, how will that same player react after dropping just 4 buy-ins @ $25NL (aka 10 buy-ins @ $10NL)?

I guess this does relate to another idea we may have been skirting around. I've been advocating moving up when a player has 30 buy-ins or more, but that's not entirely true. I think you ALSO need to have a reasonably good win rate of at least 4bb/100 or 2ptBB/100 and preferably more. Because technically if you're just slightly a winner and it takes you a year or more playing tens of thousands of hands to get the bankroll to move up, then you're probably destined to fail if you move up. I think there should be a familiarity, comfort, and confidence based on real past results that you can beat the level you're @ BEFORE you move up. If you're lacking that confidence and ability and ESPECIALLY if you're lacking the bankroll to go with it, success will be a major dog when you move up.

You are obviously never "due" anything at any moment in poker. Hence the quotations. Wow. Anyways, I was commenting on the fact that we sometimes move up during big upswings and are surprised when they reverse/stop when we're at a new stake.

Making $100 at 10NL is easily a lot of work. Most people aren't playing a ton of hands. Some of us are lucky to play everyday! If you're beating 10NL for 4BB/100 then it would take 13K hands to make $100. That's really easy for some, and a months volume for others.

I said if HE feels like HE'S skilled enough HE should move up at as low a BR that is reasonable. It's literally a waste of money to not do so.

After reading all the suggestions I think I'll see what my winrate is once I reach $650 again. Then decide from there.

I think I'll start a blog too.