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Three-way limp pot with TPWK (2NL)

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  1. #1

    Default Three-way limp pot with TPWK (2NL)

    Villain is 37/6 over 35 hands. AFq is 20, AF is 0.60. I don't have any other notes/reads on him. UTG+1 is 65/6 over 34, with notes on him that he'll check behind with AA in the BB and that he'll 3bet 88 preflop and then continue betting on flop/river with overcards on the board.

    To analyze the correctness of my flop raise: I don't know how often he's leading this flop with draws or worse, given his overall passivity. However, we only have like 11 hands with which to judge his postflop play, so I'm not inclined to discount much on that basis. He could be completing in the SB a lot, so I'm thinking his range is something like 44, 22, Ax of clubs, most broadway clubs, 87+ of clubs, J9o+, J7s+, maybe A5. I would think he raises JJ+ preflop. With two players yet to act, I don't think the SB is going to get aggressive with middle PPs.

    Feeding that into PokerStove tells me that I'm in bad shape (about 25% equity after considering UTG+1's range, with the SB's equity at 59%) which I didn't realize during play, but with that knowledge I believe I should have folded.

    After he calls, I figure his range is about the same as it was preflop, with a bit more weight towards a made hand. So, as played, I think barreling the turn would have been a decent move, for FE against a lot of the hands that I'm behind (and also to continue to give poor odds to any remaining draws). Would a roughly 1/2-2/3 pot size bet have been appropriate here, or would it have just be another spew? I shied away from firing because I was thinking that one of my leaks has been bluffing too much (particularly for this level).

    Your thoughts are appreciated.

    $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem - PokerStars - 6 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($2.54)
    UTG+1 ($1.22)
    CO ($5.62)
    BTN ($5.20)
    SB ($2.95)
    Hero ($1.99)

    Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 6 players) Hero is BB
    1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, 2 folds, SB calls $0.01, Hero checks

    Flop: ($0.06, 3 players)
    SB bets $0.08, Hero raises to $0.28, UTG+1 folds, SB calls $0.20

    Turn: ($0.62, 2 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks

    River: ($0.62, 2 players)
    SB bets $0.28
  2. #2
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    Nov 2010
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    i would fold, dont think he chased the straight or the flush, i put him on a J9, J10 or JQ. chasing the flush its to obvious and he knows you wont pay a board with 3 clubs. pairs he does not have cause you said he bets them turn/river so its out of question.
  3. #3
    With stats like his I wouldn't assume that he's thought about the poor implied odds that his FD has.

    As for the river, yeah, I think it's an easy fold. If he doesn't have a better jack, he probably connected with the K or A.

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