Thoughts about folding QQ & KK preflop

I would like to discuss a pretty common topic for a bit. Most seem to agree that folding KK preflop in a 100bb deep cash game is a no-no. What I don't understand is how there can be a scenario (like a villain 4betting you all-in preflop) where most people think that QQ is an auto-fold and KK is an auto-call. I see hands like this a lot where the HH shows Hero with QQ and most posters agree that Hero should fold, but if they held KK then they wouldn't be able to get the money in fast enough. My questions to those people are:

1) What range do you put villain on to be auto-folding QQ?

I'm assuming that to auto-fold QQ villain's range is something like QQ+.

2) How does that range look vs. KK?

If QQ+ is the range you assign to villain then how does that look when you hold KK instead? KK is 50% vs. a range of QQ+. I think we can all agree that AA is more likely to 4bet all-in preflop than QQ. Since we are 50/50 to start off with vs. that range and AA is more likely than QQ, it seems to me that calling with KK in a situation like this is at best break-even and probably a bit -EV.

If you are the type of player who doesn't mind taking 50/50's for 100bb's then fine. I don't think most players are that type. If you aren't that type then how can QQ be an auto-fold and KK be an auto-call (meaning you don't even have to think about odds/EV/etc.) in a situation like the one I've described?

I try to keep it as simple, yet as low variance as possible. Ill play kk for 100 bbs against loose donkeys/ fish and someone possibly tilting (also blind vs. blind/button situations). If it is a TAGG reg who I have some history with, theres no way I play for 100 bbs preflop. Ill wait for a better spot.

good to hear game

I don't know if I am instafolding QQ very often pf.
KK is never an instafold.

I don't know if a 4-bet AI pf range is as heavily skewed towards AA as you think it is. Many players will simply call the 3-bet with AA and attempt to get the rest in on the flop. I would imagine that you are just as likely to see QQ, KK, AK (outside chance) 4-bet pf.

It seems to come down to this:
there are 3 hands that a somewhat rational player will be 4-betting AI pf. If you hold QQ you are at the very bottom of the range. And since you hold 2 of the 4 Q's, there's is only a very slim chance of opp having the other Q's. More often than not you will be a 4:1 dog when calling here, unless you have a reason to think otherwise.

If you hold KK, then opp is less likely to also have KK, meaning you are either a 4:1 dog, or a 4:1 favourite. Seems break even, until you add in the small chance of JJ, AK, or a "resteal" attempt with random crap.

synopsis:
with KK there are more hands that you are a good deal ahead of that can make this play than if you have QQ.

just my thoughts

Originally Posted by pgil

I don't know if a 4-bet AI pf range is as heavily skewed towards AA as you think it is. Many players will simply call the 3-bet with AA and attempt to get the rest in on the flop. I would imagine that you are just as likely to see QQ, KK, AK (outside chance) 4-bet pf.

I think it is very reasonable to assume AA is considerably more likely to 4bet all-in preflop than QQ. Also, there may be many players who only call 3bets with AA - I doubt that's the majority especially at lower stakes. Also, if AK is an "outside chance" then how can it be "just as likely"?

Originally Posted by pgil

If you hold KK, then opp is less likely to also have KK, meaning you are either a 4:1 dog, or a 4:1 favourite. Seems break even, until you add in the small chance of JJ, AK, or a "resteal" attempt with random crap.

why aren't you adding in this small chance when you hold QQ? of course KK is ahead if you make up a completely different range when you hold it. QQ is ahead of such a range also. it seems like when people hold QQ they play smart but when they hold KK their mind warps and they start remembering all those times they saw ppl move all-in with crap.

My thoughts

This post is based of some assumptions that are made by someone without the experience to make them. However I believe my math based on those assumptions is fairly accurate.

Assumptions 25% villain has AA, 25% KK, 25% QQ or lower pocket pair, 25% Ax. I will ignore the instances where your holdings are identical for simplicity sake.

With KK you have 20/80 against 33% (AA) = 6.6%
80/20 against 33% (QQ-) = 26.4%
72/28 against 33% (Ax) = 23.8%
= 56.8%

Lower Ax to 0% and you clearly get a winrate of 50%

With QQ you have 20/80 against 50% (AA/KK) = 10%
80/20 against 25% (QQ-) = 20%
72/28 against 25% (Ax) = 18%
= 48%

Lower Ax to 0% and you get a winrate of 40%

So lets say the stack sizes are exactly 100bb and that no one else contributed to the pot. After an original bet of 4xbb, and a 4bet raise to 16x bb followed by a push you are pushing 84 bb to win a pot of 116. That gives us pot odds of 1 to 1.38. The lower the lowest stack is, the higher your pot odds to call. Seems to me that with KK calling a bet that will win 50-57% with those odds is a no-brainer unless your reads say his AA% is much higher than my assumptions. What that % is I don't know and am too tired to try and figure it out.

When holding QQ your winrate is 40-48% which makes this much less profitable. Against a loose aggressive player this looks to be a call, unless you are both much higher than 100bb deep. I don't trust my reads that much and as such, I'll fold here.

With KK in my mind the question isn't one of whether or not your gaining value by calling, the question is really a bankroll question. So I guess if your not willing to stack-off in +EV situations then are you playing too high for your roll. (thats a question I really have no clue as to the answer).

Again I'm sure you all realize how new I am. If my numbers are off so much as to make my conclusions wrong please let me know.

Dashi just take a scenario where you are folding QQ preflop to a 4bet all-in and ask yourself if you are calling with KK and why. I'm not sure what exactly you are trying to calculate with your post.

Winrate with KK is 10% higher than with QQ, this is the point of my calculations.

That 10% difference is why I would fold with QQ and call with KK

Originally Posted by Dashi

Winrate with KK is 10% higher than with QQ, this is the point of my calculations.

That 10% difference is why I would fold with QQ and call with KK

what is the range you are assigning to villain to come up with that? your post looks like it's trying to say that QQ vs. 22+ is 40% and that KK vs. 22+ is 57%. that is obviously not right. this is from pokerstove...

KK: 75.471% equity
22+: 24.529% equity

QQ: 70.408% equity
22+: 29.592% equity

the point of my post is...i can't really imagine a range that makes QQ a clear fold and KK a clear call unless one enjoys taking a 50/50 for their whole stack.

Unless I mis-read your post, your telling me I'm wrong because my Orange doesn't taste like your Apple. I am assuming your numbers are different because you have not assigned a frequency to each group of holdings, and instead just pitted KK/QQ vs any random 22+ hand and came up with different numbers.

Assumptions 25% villain has AA, 25% KK, 25% QQ or lower pocket pair, 25% Ax

This is my range with a frequency assigned to each group of holdings.

My numbers are rounded off and basic because I am doing the math myself and want to keep it simple. With the villain holding those ranges of hand, with that percentage of assigned to each group, you get a winrate (or equity whatever you want to call it, again I am new) of around 57% with KK and 48% for QQ. If you reduce the percentage of Ax holdings to zero, then you get 50% for KK and 40% for QQ.

Again pokerstove or whoever may say that KK vs Ax or QQ vs 22-JJ has a slightly different win rate than I have stated, but unless they are significantly off my general conclusions stand.

The difference here shows an easy call for KK and a marginal fold for QQ. Don't like marginal hands for stacks pre-flop so fold. Easy calls are easy calls any time at any amount.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

1) What range do you put villain on to be auto-folding QQ?

I'm assuming that to auto-fold QQ villain's range is something like QQ+.

2) How does that range look vs. KK?

If QQ+ is the range you assign to villain then how does that look when you hold KK instead? KK is 50% vs. a range of QQ+. I think we can all agree that AA is more likely to 4bet all-in preflop than QQ. Since we are 50/50 to start off with vs. that range and AA is more likely than QQ, it seems to me that calling with KK in a situation like this is at best break-even and probably a bit -EV.

If AA is more likely than QQ then we arent 50/50. Ranges have to take into account the probability of each holding before they come up with an equity.

If you aren't that type then how can QQ be an auto-fold and KK be an auto-call (meaning you don't even have to think about odds/EV/etc.) in a situation like the one I've described?

You do think about odds. If you are facing a 4bet you are usually calling about 85 to win 115 meaning you only need 42% equity. Against a range of QQ+,AK we are 40% to win with QQ and 57% to win with KK. Against a range of QQ+ we are 20% with QQ and 50% with KK. We think about these factors away from the table and then know whether we can instacall or instafold when the situation comes up in a game. Obviously if we are up against looser players we will call with QQ aswell. Interestingly, if someone has a range of KK+, 10% of the time some random crap then our equity is only ~26% and maybe we should think about folding. These kinds of players are become much more common at SSNL these days.
If we think their range is KK+, Something else x% of the time, then they need to have something else at least 20% of the time before we can call.

AK is being severly underestimated in all of these posts, minus pelions. QQ+/AK is a range i see villains getting it with mostly, and these days it seems like AK is getting in PF moreso than AA who i see flat calling 3-bets much more. Pelions range w/ QQ having 40% equity and KK having 57% equity is spot on and answers OP's question perfectly.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

the point of my post is...i can't really imagine a range that makes QQ a clear fold and KK a clear call unless one enjoys taking a 50/50 for their whole stack.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.995% 46.10% 03.89% 61573380 5199546.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 50.005% 46.11% 03.89% 61587240 5199546.00 { QQ+ }

Clear call if there is dead money.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.701% 16.81% 03.89% 22456944 5190822.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 79.299% 75.41% 03.89% 100721124 5190822.00 { QQ+ }

Very clear fold.

Against most 4 betting ranges, QQ does really bad. Even if we add AK it's probably a fold, even with dead money. KK however does just fine unless we can narrow down someones range to like KK+.

i don't know how true it is but there is an old saying that says the 3rd raise in nl is always aces.

Originally Posted by littleogre

i don't know how true it is but there is an old saying that says the 3rd raise in nl is always aces.

Any one liner about poker with the world "always" in is a load of bollocks

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by pgil

If you hold KK, then opp is less likely to also have KK, meaning you are either a 4:1 dog, or a 4:1 favourite. Seems break even, until you add in the small chance of JJ, AK, or a "resteal" attempt with random crap.

why aren't you adding in this small chance when you hold QQ? of course KK is ahead if you make up a completely different range when you hold it. QQ is ahead of such a range also. it seems like when people hold QQ they play smart but when they hold KK their mind warps and they start remembering all those times they saw ppl move all-in with crap.

adding in a small percent chance of random crap does not sway QQ towards a call, so I didn't mention it. It was the fact that KK is in the middle of the range as opposed to the bottom (or near the bottom).

martin,

in a 10NL game, where you are currently, i think the "random hand" these guys are talking about goes up above 10% when an aggro is doing it. i see AJ+, TT+ do it all the time.

however, tighties wont do it with less than AA.

it kind of becomes read-dependent.

i would say that if a loosey or aggro does it to me at 10NL, i take the shot as low as QQ, rarely JJ(against bad LAGs and i prefer to shove this one).

i'm not discounting what the others are saying at all...the math is the math.

but, i dont fold KK because i find AK/random in there enough that i still want the dominating situation. with QQ, you see AK enough to make your queens a fold, imo.

that said i just dropped QQ to a 4bet push yesterday to an aggro. villain was taunting in the chat, though, and i had seen this with his pf monsters. lol.

Originally Posted by Chopper

with QQ, you see AK enough to make your queens a fold, imo.

huh? QQ is a coinflip/ marginally ahead of AK. Unless you meant to say AA/KK I dont know what you mean.

i mean that when you hold QQ you see AA/KK (givens), and AK often enough to make QQ a fold, but not KK. KK still has the best of AK, but QQ drops to a flip, which should lower QQ's results compared to KK, yes? that is just enough for me to avoid tangling with my QQ against a 4bet push, but i dont mind w/ KK.

Whether or not AK helps or hurts your equity depends on what the rest of villains range is. If you are likely behind and calling on the basis of pot odds then you prefer they have AK in their range, since that is less chance they have AA. If you are likely ahead and calling anyway then you prefer they dont have AK in their range since that is less chance they have 22.

e.g.


QQ :20
QQ+ :80

QQ :40
QQ+, AK :60


QQ :70
22+ :30

QQ :68
22+, AK :32


It doesnt really matter though since, if they are loose enough that you'd rather they didnt have AK then you are getting it in anyway so in general AK is a good hand for them to have in their range when you have high PPs below AK.

I try to push KK and AA pf every chance I get

that first example is enlightening....where 80/20 drops to 60/40.

i know it was for "concept," but i dont think 22+ is ever in a 4bet range consistently... at low stakes.

the first example proves, once again, i am full of shit. maybe i should put THAT in my sig.

i just noticed that in order for it to drop to 50/50, not that that was the point, villain's range needs to be TT+, AQ+, and i dont see that but against the craziest of maniacs.

however back to the OP. if you assume a common range of KK+,AK when you are being 4-bet-pushed, you are still a decent dog with KK. however, if villain opens up slightly to QQ+, AK, you now jump to a decent favorite.

perhaps that is why most feel QQ is auto-fold, and KK is not. villains range needs to be a good bit wider when we hold QQ, and no one assumes 4bets come from anything worse than QQ... at the loosest.

Originally Posted by Chopper

martin,

in a 10NL game, where you are currently, i think the "random hand" these guys are talking about goes up above 10% when an aggro is doing it. i see AJ+, TT+ do it all the time.

however, tighties wont do it with less than AA.

it kind of becomes read-dependent.

I agree with Chopper as to the above comments.

There are very few players I will fold QQ preflop to for almost any amount. In fact, unless it is one of the rocks I know well, I am hoping that they have 300bb behind and are willing to put it all in preflop when I hold QQ.

At the games I play, even the semi-nits are willing to go allin preflop holding AJs+, 1010+ many times. Add that to the range of possible holdings and QQ becomes an insta-call. Again, however, if the player is a proven nit, I may be able to get away from QQ preflop, but likely wouldn't get into an all in preflop situation anyway, as after their raise, I will flat call and play after the flop.

I can't see me folding KK ever PF. Not in a cash game.
Cue Sammy Farha vs Barry Greenstein...

It depends on your opponent. If you want to generalize though i dont think you should really fold KK+ pre. QQ though i fold a good amount, or did at you guys' stakes

QQ is probably a fold pf to too much aggression, unless opponent only knows AI/fold. But such an opponent is difficult/ impossible to find with a big enough stack.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

It depends on your opponent. If you want to generalize though i dont think you should really fold KK+ pre. QQ though i fold a good amount, or did at you guys' stakes

What size stakes are those? I play $200-$500 buyin 2/3 3/5 NLHE and have rarely folded QQ preflop.

man, i just keep staring at that av. everytime i see it, damn.

Originally Posted by Lithium

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

It depends on your opponent. If you want to generalize though i dont think you should really fold KK+ pre. QQ though i fold a good amount, or did at you guys' stakes

What size stakes are those? I play $200-$500 buyin 2/3 3/5 NLHE and have rarely folded QQ preflop.

Then it looks like you and him are thinking along the same lines. I think ISF means in lower limit games, particularly 50NL and lower, folding Q-Q to a 4bet preflop would typically be the best play since your opponents are generally only 4betting Q-Q+.

1st of all to the people saying they see even semi-nits 4betting all-in preflop for 100bb's "all the time" with AJ+, TT+...where the F do you guys play? This is not the norm even at $10nl. I'm pretty certain that the idiots who you have seen do that are just standing out in your minds a lot more than you think.

Originally Posted by bode

AK is being severly underestimated in all of these posts...

Ok so a range of QQ+,AK makes QQ a fold and KK a call...yay we found a range But I disagree that AK is being underestimated. I definitely don't see AK 4bet all-in preflop for 100bb's enough times to automatically put it in an unknown's range. If I know that villain goes all-in with AK though I will call with KK all day long...but then if we know that then we have a specific read which changes everything.

Originally Posted by pgil

adding in a small percent chance of random crap does not sway QQ towards a call, so I didn't mention it. It was the fact that KK is in the middle of the range as opposed to the bottom (or near the bottom).

QQ is well ahead of a range of JJ+, AKs, AK, and "random crap." Do the math and you will see.

lol this just happened...

$10NL
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $6.20
UTG+1: $6.20
MP1: $8.75
MP2: $3.65
MP3: $8.55
CO: $2.75
Button: $1.95
SB: $10.40
Hero: $10.70

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with K K
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB raises to $0.2, Hero raises to $0.8, 3 folds, SB raises to $5.15, Hero raises all-in $10.7, SB calls all-in $5.4.
Uncalled bets: $0.15 returned to Hero.

Flop: 4 2 6 ($-9.95, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $21.4)


Turn: A ($-9.95, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $21.4)


River: 2 ($-9.95, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $21.4)


Results:
Final pot: $21.40
SB showed Qd 5s
Hero showed Kd Kc

I fold QQ a fair bit and probably should fold it a bit more, but im playing 200nl/400nl.
A remember a rcent cooler session on party where i dumped 5 buy ins in 2k hands by running QQ into AA/KK from the button 3times when attempting to steal.
In that spot im probably not folding QQ preflop, to be honest i probably should as the opps i play with are too quick to spew c-bet into a ragged flop too often and stack off perhaps with TT-JJ quickly.

Now i play AP a lot more, this is different. These guys rarely reraise AK preflop, and dont 3bet Jacks from the sb even if i opened UTG or from the CO/BTN.
In that case they are getting frisky with small mid overpairs on raggedy flops postflop so rpeflop i have no need to look to 4bet AK/QQ.
This only leaves the blinds where im stacking off preflop with QQ/AK always.

Unles i have more than 150bbs, im not folding KK preflop, although so far i have only been 4bet by AA and not KK, but lots on AP want to slow play their big pairs.

All in all, i wouldnt fold KK preflop with 100bbs behind and id fold QQ a whole lot more than perhaps i should.

How does Qx not win there?

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

1st of all to the people saying they see even semi-nits 4betting all-in preflop for 100bb's "all the time" with AJ+, TT+...where the F do you guys play? This is not the norm even at $10nl. I'm pretty certain that the idiots who you have seen do that are just standing out in your minds a lot more than you think.

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youre right martin 4 bet pushing a range that wide is pretty rare

Originally Posted by Lithium

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

1st of all to the people saying they see even semi-nits 4betting all-in preflop for 100bb's "all the time" with AJ+, TT+...where the F do you guys play? This is not the norm even at $10nl. I'm pretty certain that the idiots who you have seen do that are just standing out in your minds a lot more than you think.

Commerce Casino
Casino San Pablo
Cache Creek
El Dorado - Reno
Auburn Card Room
Lucky Chances
Lucky Derby
Hawaiin Gardens
Napa Valley Card Room
Casino 101 - Petaluma

lol funny lithium.

if a tight russian set miner puts me all in after i 4 bet him then i have no decision to do with QQ. depends on player, i may fold even KK sometimes against this lows takes nits for simple reason, they dont have balls to go in without KK+ pre (more often aces).

thing is use ur head to put him on good shoving range in that very situation. if ur multitabler without reads well then good luck making the decision.

Originally Posted by Jack Sawyer

I can't see me folding KK ever PF. Not in a cash game.
Cue Sammy Farha vs Barry Greenstein...

does this mean we should fold AA pre cos KK will suckout ?

Originally Posted by crazycrazy

Originally Posted by Jack Sawyer

I can't see me folding KK ever PF. Not in a cash game.
Cue Sammy Farha vs Barry Greenstein...

does this mean we should fold AA pre cos KK will suckout ?

obviously

Now here's a spot to never even think about folding without some kind of crazy read...

$10NL
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $9.85
UTG+1: $10
MP1: $5.35
MP2: $16.55
MP3: $15.40
CO: $2.55
Button: $4.85
SB: $12.25
BB: $12.40

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with K K
Hero raises to $0.4, 3 folds, MP3 raises all-in $15.4, 4 folds, Hero calls all-in $9.45.
Uncalled bets: $5.55 returned to MP3.

Flop: 5 2 6 ($0.3, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $19.85)


Turn: J ($0.3, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $19.85)


River: 7 ($0.3, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $19.85)


Results:
Final pot: $0.3
Hero showed Kd Kc
MP3 showed Ac Qd

KK is a big fav to QQ and AK, and a big dog to AA. QQ is a small fav to AK, and a big dog to KK and AA. Huuuuuge difference.

We have entered into a preflop slowplaying KK and AA era. Even though AA and then KK shove pre more than other hands, they are doing it less often. We see a higher density of shoves from worse hands like 88 or 74s now from donkeys, even when they take the 'zomg minraised twice gotta be AA' line. Grinders often are looking for reasons to play AK and QQ fast, and we tilt from time to time. My most recent preflop 100bb shove call was my AA vs donkey's 64s.

I prefer to felt KK vs AA and curse the poker gods than fold and wonder.

Besides, like I always say: Figuring reasons to fold KK for 100bb is NOT what makes big winners and excellent players.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

KK is a big fav to QQ and AK, and a big dog to AA. QQ is a small fav to AK, and a big dog to KK and AA. Huuuuuge difference.

Yes, we established that if villain's range is QQ+, AK then QQ is a clear fold and KK is a clear call. This isn't the range I'm concerned with though as I think people are much too quick to add AK to ppl's 4bet pushing range.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

We have entered into a preflop slowplaying KK and AA era. Even though AA and then KK shove pre more than other hands, they are doing it less often. We see a higher density of shoves from worse hands like 88 or 74s now from donkeys, even when they take the 'zomg minraised twice gotta be AA' line.

4bet shoving with 88 or 74s might happen more now but it surely isn't the case a large majority of the time...not by a long shot.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Grinders often are looking for reasons to play AK and QQ fast, and we tilt from time to time. My most recent preflop 100bb shove call was my AA vs donkey's 64s.

If you know villain is a donk or on tilt then of course there is no reason to fold your KK.

Originally Posted by Pelion

Originally Posted by littleogre

i don't know how true it is but there is an old saying that says the 3rd raise in nl is always aces.

Any one liner about poker with the world "always" in is a load of bollocks

ha!

Originally Posted by givememyleg

Originally Posted by Pelion

Originally Posted by littleogre

i don't know how true it is but there is an old saying that says the 3rd raise in nl is always aces.

Any one liner about poker with the world "always" in is a load of bollocks

ha!

lol shhh

I seem to be late to the party in this thread, but I have to comment. I play 25-50NL right now & I think if you are insta-folding QQ to 4bet shoves then you are not 3betting a wide enough range. I know 3betting light was sooooo early 2007, but if you do it right you are going to get light enough pushes that make QQ a clear call.
In a vacuum without any history/reads, it is a clear fold to a 4bet push.