"...you only have to call .25 into a 1.20 pot vs. two full-stacked opponents."
Yeah ok, even dominated I guess we're getting a good price.
"...you're afraid of about 19 combos out of possibly 70 or more that the UTG could have."
This is my problem though, I'm not putting him on 70 combos, I've got him on 99+ AQs+ AK, and MP has a few more pairs and suited broadways to add. I'm thinking "Whew, I'm drawing on just the queen here if I'm lucky". I don't really need stove to tell me AQ is well behind the range I just gave for UTG, but I don't know about whether it's a realistic opening range for an 18/12 UTG. Add to that range a call by a slightly wider range, and I'm thinking this is a bad spot.
"If you hit top pair by spiking an ace on the flop, you're only behind AA and AK."
Yeah, but how likely is this UTG raise AK?
"And the MP range is even wider with less chance of him having QQ+,AK because he would probably 3bet part of that range."
Yeah for sure. This is why it stinks of a middle pp up to jacks maybe, or suited broadway at worst. I'm not in fear of MP pf, I'm seeing a flop and either outflopping him or folding the majority of the time. We stack off rarely if he has pp.
I really don't know. I guess I'm going by my gut instinct that UTG has AK here, and with a likely pp cold calling from middle, I'm not feeling comfortable at all. But you're right, pot odds are pretty good, and implied odds huge.
Like I say, I don't think I fold this spot, it's just I want to...
Originally Posted by wufwugy
