Quote Originally Posted by arkana
Quote Originally Posted by Pingviini
NL200, 6 handed table, you are delt JJ on BB. Lagg with 50bb opens for 5x from MP, you cover him. You know that he has AKo and will call if you go AI PF. He will bet 2/3 of the pot every time he hits A or K (lets not count flush draws for simplicity) and 2/3 of the pot 75% of the time when he misses. If the flop is blanks we CR AI (if possible) and we fold if he hits (and we dont).

Do you make the +EV play PF or go after him on later streets?
Simplified model where we stack him if A or K flops with a J but he folds to flop check raise when no A or K hits.

Push PF:
EV: +7BB (from lukie)

Call PF: (From memory so these percentages might not be totally acc but it should be quite close)
-Flop has A or K but no J ~ (27%) EV: -4BB (we check fold)
-Flop has A or K with J ~ (4%) EV: +51.5BB (we stack him)
-Flop has no A or K ~ (69%)
EV: ~13.5BB when he continuation bets (75%) (we checkraise he folds)
EV: approx 5.5BB when he doesnt (we bet turn he folds, made it 5.5BB instead of 6.5BB to allow for A or K on turn) (25%)
EV for this situation: 0.75x13.5+0.25x5 = 11.5

Total EV = 0.27x(-4) + 0.04x(51.5) + 0.69x11.5 = 8.915BB

So calling PF is better according to this simple model.
I don't know how I missed this post, but this is what I was going to get at. Seems good, if not overly simplistic. Esp taking into account things like nut straights flush draws, combo draws, boat vs trips, and an infinte amount of weird things that could happen. Still looks good though.